Upplopp och andra hot ur kollektivt beteende skall förutses! Hur?

1. Upplopp och andra hot ur kollektivt beteende skall förutses! Hur?

2. FOI-projekt 2003 … 2006 Beslutsstöd vid internationella operationerTidig förvarning om upplopp– exempel på fallbaserat lärande i underrättelseprocessenMichael Malm, Göran Neider, FOIPeter Funk, Mälardalens Högskola referensgrupp: CS2, COS ur KS09

3. Resultat – tidig förvarning • kunskap - ökas via erfarenheter • insamla och återanvänd erfarenheter lokalt • bearbeta erfarenheter lokalt + centralt • utbildning • FOI bidrar • arbetsmetodik, verktyg • informationsstruktur • indikatorer – uppbyggnadsstöd - långsiktigt

4. Agenda • Syfte • Intuitivt beslutsfattande • Indikatorer och kollektivt beteende • Fallbaserat lärande • Nytta och resultat • Framtid - diskussion

5. Syfte och målgrupp Utvecklaförmågan att tidigt förutsäga händelser och händelseutveckling syfte: agera proaktivt avgränsning kollektivt beteende (ex upplopp) MOOTW internationella operationer Und-funktionen i samverkan - lokalt, centralt

6. Deluppgifter • Metodik och Verktyg • bearbetningsmetodik • Kommunikation av erfarenheter • organisatoriskt minne • dialog mellan Und-nivåer • Indikatorstruktur (dynamisk) • på fält, före insats, • taktiska kommandon, UndSäkC

7. Projekthistoria - val • 2003 kollektivt beteende, beslutsmodeller • 2004-02 fallbaserat lärande • 2004-04upploppet i Caglavica=> nytt fall • 2005-08Gul server • 2005-10CTA-kurs + intervjuCS2 + COS

8. Exempel Paris 2005

9. Exempel Paris’05 – KS09 Ex värdebegrepp: känslor, stämningar, påverkan – representation, likhet

10. Experience the situation in a changing context No Diagnos Is Situation Typical? Moore data Yes Inference Clarify Anomali Recognition Primed Decision Model Expectancies Cues Evaluate action (n) No Modify Goals Action 1….n Will it work? Yes, but Yes Source: ”Sources of Power” by Gary Klein Implement course of action

11. Sense of Coherence (SOC)

12. Emergent Violent Conflicts • Structural factors: Background conditions that form the pre-condition of crises situations. • Accelerators: Feedback events that rapidly increase the level of significance of the most volatile of the general conditions. • Triggers: Sudden events that act as catalysts igniting a crises or conflict. Source:CIFP

15. 1.Justice and human rights 1:1. Justice and the rule of law 1:2. Human rights 1:3. Civil society and media 1:4. Intervening variables 2. Socio-cultural factors 2:1. Ethnic tension and division 2:2. Political exploitation of ethnic, cultural and identity differences 2:3. Structural and historical factors 3. Internal security setting 3:1. Demographic/population pressure 3:2. Non-economic social development and regional inequalities 3:3. Criminalisation 3:4. Violence, cohesion, and internally displaced people/refugees 3:5. History of armed conflict and structural instability 3:6. Lack of tools and institutions of conflict prevention 3:7. Regime type and media 4. Geopolitical setting 4:1. Regional and international setting 4:2. International linkage 4:3. External (territorial) disputes 4:4. External support and intervention 5. Military and security 5:1. Arms, small arms 5:2. Military expenditure 5:3. Military forces and control 5:4. Non-state controlled armed forces 6. Environment and resource management 6:1. Environmental disaster, scarcity of natural resources 6.2. Resource management 6:3. Problematic resources (eg oil, diamonds, and gold) 6:4. Competition over (scarce) resources (eg water) 7. Governance and political stability 7:1. State/regime legitimacy 7:2. Governance 7:3. Political stability, opposition- and elite groups 7:4. Regime type 7:5. Corruption 8. Socio-economic factors 8:1. Social development and equality 8:2. Economic performance and wealth 8:3. Economic stability and performance 9. Regional and country specific variables SIPRI Structural Indicators

16. Dissatisfaction with the management of state affairs Censorship Corruption, (institutional, commercial, political) Increased tension between regime supporters and opposition groups Political violence (assassinations, coups, hostage-taking etc.) Dissatisfaction with the management of state affairs Institutionalized persecution, or perception of (economic, political etc.) General despair (linked to justice, economic welfare, personal/family security) Abuses of power Increased opposition activity Increase in size and cohesion of opposition groups Repression of political opposition Radicalization of opposition (militarization, rise in ethno-nationalism, increasingly irredentist agenda, more violent or conflict-generating activities undertaken etc.) Protest action (strikes, picketing etc.) Militarization (of society or political groups) Increase in terrorism Human rights abuses Increase in organized crime High or increasing crime rate Authorities sanction arming of civilians in border areas Arms trafficking Militarization (of society or political groups) Proliferation of arms High no. of suicides Exploitation of divisions/tensions (political / media propaganda) Perception that terrorist activities are related to / supported by elements in neighboring states Perception that Federal government encourages and manipulates internal conflicts Influx of refugees / IDPs (conflict over the return of displaced people or influx of refugees) Emigration, particularly of minorities or elites Political instability and violence (coups, assassinations etc.) Uncertain period of political transition (upcoming elections, newly autonomous region establishing self-government etc.) Examples of Structural Indicators

18. The dewpoint is this critical temperature at which condensation occurs

19. Arrest February 16 of four former KLA commanders An attempted attack on Minister Ethem Ceku on February 21. Nights of the fires celebration An explosives attack on the residence of President Ibrahim Rugova on March 12 Large amounts of explosives planted in the immediate vicinity of UNMIK head-quarters At about 8 p.m. March 15, unknown attackers fired from a car at an eighteen-year-old Serb. Blocking of the main highway (Pristina-Skopje) Three young Albanian children were said to have been chased into the Ibar river March 16. On March 16 war associations organized widespread demonstrations Closed schools Closed shops/restaurants Children throwing stones Chanting Snipers Dark glasses and faces covered with scarves The arrival of spring and first good weather Newspaper headlines: “UNMIK watch out there is gunpowder for you to” Cut out of water Aggressive graffiti Electricity cut off Ignored calls from local leaders to go home Forbidden symbols is shown openly Increased number of telephone calls Beatings Involvement of outsiders Examples of Event Indicators

21. Examples of imminent riot indicators • Orientation.Crowd dynamics change from people milling around and talking among themselves in isolated groups to a more collective focus concentrated on a single objective • Massing.The crowd begins to mass or tighten into a large contiguous body from a loose formation to a static congregation located in a more concentrated area • Chanting.People may begin chanting slogans or yelling ethnically charged rhetoric or obscenities. Chanting can indicate an increase in crowd intensity. • Signaling.Signaling occurs when members of the crowd position themselves to communicate and synchronize crowd actions tied to a plan with specific objectives. Signaling may indicate the intent to escalate the message through the use of violent or unlawful acts. • Blocking.The crowd may attempt to block public thoroughfares. This escalates the level of attention given to the crowd's message or prevents freedom of movement to opposing persons or groups • Arming. Any signs that the crowd is arming itself with objects (for example, bottles, rocks, and sticks) is a clear indication of impending danger. • Outside Influence. The presence of people from outside the community may indicate more sophisticated planning and resources than would otherwise be expected from local community members. • Agitators. Agitators and instigators are common elements associated with civil disturbances. They often provide a catalyst to incite the crowd toward violence. • Absence of children. Recent civil disturbances have shown that even when children were initially present at a rally, they were absent before the civil disturbance erupted with violence. While the presence of children is not a guarantee of a peaceful assembly, the removal of children from a rally may provide early warning for a pending escalation of hostilities or a full-blown riot

22. Experience the situation in a changing context No Diagnos Is Situation Typical? Moore data Yes Inference Clarify Anomali Recognition Primed Decision Model Expectancies Cues Evaluate action (n) No Modify Goals Action 1….n Will it work? Yes, but Yes Source: ”Sources of Power” by Gary Klein Implement course of action

23. Fallbaserat lärande (CBR)Case-Base Reasoning • analogi-baserat • identifiera, återanvända lösningar • NÄR? • komplext • bristande • individuella fall => beslut

24. CBR processen problem (Aamodts 4 R) Retrieve identifiera fallet - likhet Omvärlds- kunskap välj det bästa - mått Reuse Data bas med fall revidera föreslagen lösning, värdera Revise Lagra det nya fallet Retain inlärning (anpassa)

25. CBR –jämför händelser – likhetsberäkning (exempel)

26. Observation – händelse - fall • Observationer – ’fakta • 7S, indikatorer • Händelse – bedömning • sammanhangspåverkan (hierarki), • typer: behållare, jämförelseobjekt, reella, hypotetiska, härledda • Fall – en utvald sekvens av händelser som berör ett utfall

27. KS09 exempel på observationer dec Attentat mot domsstol Hög arbetslöshet jan pamfletter Holkari löften feb hätskare stämning - ökar Serbnärvaro ökar upploppshantering – KFOR beslut – varför?! KFOR ersätts med polis studentdemonstrationer attentat mot president mars attentat blockad Upplopp i Mitrovica Olycka + propaganda = trigger demonstration Upplopp tid

28. Observationer – händelse - fall Fall – utvald sekvens av händelser, anpassas H H H Händelser - bedömningar H H H H H H H H O O O O O O O O O Observationer – 7S + indikatorer tid

29. Fallets behandlingscykel tid Bearbeta lokalt, centralt Skapa fall lokalt Återanvänd av nästa S2 S2 lagrar Utspelas Utspelas STEMP händelse händelse stämning beslut utfall händelse STEMP+ Händelse+ händelse stämning beslut utfall händelse STEMP händelse händelse händelse stämning beslut utfall händelse händelse händelse händelse stämning beslut utfall händelse händelse händelse händelse händelse händelse stämning beslut utfall händelse Frågor om likhet CBR-databas + system tid

30. Tidig förvarning ur erfarenheter M d h b g i e a c f biblioteksfall Aktuellsök likhet i bibliotek ger • följd av händelser fall studera följder • händelse händelser ny eller igenkänd • viktig händelse händelser varning, sök fall • händelse händelser indatastöd • Indikator händelser indikatoruppbyggnad u x nu fall y z

31. Fallens bearbetning • indikatorer • representation, likhetsmått • påverkan, vikt (sammanhang, mått) • bearbetning • auktorisering - standardfall • normalfall • förhindrade hot (lyckad åtgärd) • skapade fall (ideal) • analys • härledda, hypotetiska händelser

32. Nytta • kommunikation av erfarenheter • insats • organisatoriskt minne • Lesson learned • utbildning • utveckling (simuleringsunderlag)

33. Framtid • Planer • Behov • bekräftelse • samarbete • personer: ref-grp, utveckling, indikatorer • NBG 2008, 2011

34. ATK presentation 2005-11-25 av FOI-projekt Beslutsstöd vid internationella operationerTidig förvarning om upplopp– exempel på fallbaserat lärande i underrättelseprocessenGöran Neider, FOIneider @foi.seMichael Malm, FOI

35. Extra bilder • FN aktörer + NATO stabsstruktur • IDEA event structure • Lofland collective behaviour • Turner, Kilian collective behaviour

36. FN aktörer & NATO stabsstruktur Nivå Aktörer internationellt i Sverige Strategisk allmän FN regering militär NATO (EU?) ÖB MUST OperativJoint …J2, J3…. OPIL .J2,J3.. vapengrensöverskridande Taktisk Air Marine Ground division brigad …G2, G3.. NIC ..G2.. ATK Stridsteknisk bataljon (Staff) ..S2, S3… kompanier förbanden Polis: UNMIK, lokal Hjälporganisationer (NGO) Media

37. 01: Yield 02: Comment 03: Consult 04: Endorse 05: Promise 06: Grant 07: Reward 08: Agree 09: Request 10: Propose 11: Reject 12: Accuse 13: Complain 15: Demand 16: Warn 17: Threaten 18: Demonstrate 19: Sanction 21: Seize 22: Force Use 23: Economic activity 29: Other human action 52: Accident IDEA Event Indicator Classification

38. Years, Mounths, weeks Trends Waves Campaigns Days, Hours, minutes Events TEMPORAL FRAME Gatherings Hours, Minutes, seconds Collective Behavior Sequence Minutes, Seconds, Split seconds Individual Behavior Sequence MICRO MACRO SPATIAL FRAME Källa: Lofland

39. PROBLEMATIC EVENTS CONDITIONS FACILITATING COMMUNICATION AND MOBILIZATION RUMOR PROCESS CONVERGENCE Of persons with diverse motives THE MILLING PROCESS General characteristics of all crowds KEYNOTING via differential expressions of diverse motives COLLECTIVE BEHAVIOR EMERGENT NORM As definition of situation Emergent norm teorin enl Turner och Killian, 1972,1987