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Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources. Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington for presentation at Fifth IHP/IAHS George Kovacs Colloquium UNESCO, Paris 2 June 2000. Outline of this talk.

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Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

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  1. Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington for presentation at Fifth IHP/IAHS George Kovacs Colloquium UNESCO, Paris 2 June 2000

  2. Outline of this talk

  3. Modeling the Connections Between Climate and Streamflow

  4. Currently Modeled US Basins 1 Northwest 5 Rio Grande 10 Upper Mississippi 2 California 6 Missouri 11 Lower Mississippi 3 Great Basin 7 Arkansas-Red 12 Ohio 4 Colorado 8 Gulf 13 East Coast 9 Great Lakes

  5. Schematic for Forecasting Experiments Using Resampled Observed Data Select Met Data Ensemble from Historic Record Associated with Forecast Climate Category Long-Lead Climate Forecast ENSO Run Initialized Hydrologic Model PDO Ensemble Streamflow Forecast

  6. Columbia PDO Effects Columbia ENSO Effects PDO/ENSO Effects

  7. Chester Morse PDO Effects Chester Morse ENSO Effects PDO/ENSO Effects

  8. Time Line for 12-month Lead Time Retrospective Forecasts Climate Forecast Estimated Initial Conditions Forecast Ensemble Lead time = 12 months

  9. Columbia River Streamflow Forecast at The Dalles for 2001 Highest Simulation (1948-1997) Cool PDO/ENSO Neut. Ensemble Lowest Simulation (1948-1997)

  10. Columbia River Streamflow Forecast at The Dalles for 2000 Cool PDO/Cool ENSO Ensemble

  11. Overview of Streamflow Forecasting Schemes Using Climate Models Global Climate Models Water Resources Models Hydrology Models streamflow Temp. Precip. wind downscaling Regional Climate Models water demand

  12. Constructing the Hydrology Model Driving Data Using a Normal SST Nov-Apr Climate Forecast MM5 Sim 24 MM5 Forecasts MM5 Sim MM5 Sim MM5 Sim MM5 Sim MM5 Sim MM5 Sim MM5 Sim Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr MM5 Sim MM5 Sim MM5 Sim MM5 Sim MM5 Sim MM5 Sim . . . 1960 . . . Oct May Jun Jul Repeating 1960 Observed Temp and Precip Time Series with Nov-April Replaced by MM5 Forecasts

  13. Test Simulations for the Columbia River at The Dalles Control (observed Nov-Apr’s) RCM (raw climate simulations for Nov-Apr’s)

  14. Simple Bias Correction Used in MM5 Experiments (Nov-Mar Ensembles inserted in repeating 1960) Mean Variance

  15. Quantile Mapping Bias Correction

  16. Kanawha River Basin Simulations Using Observed Data and Bias Corrected GCM Output Mean Observations Bias-Corrected GCM Variance

  17. Downscaled GSM forecast ensembles compared to historical climatological bounds

  18. Current Streamflow Forecast Basins 1 Ohio 3 Delaware 4 Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa 2 Potomac 5 Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint

  19. Current Streamflow Forecast Basins

  20. Climate Scenarios Adjustments To Observed Meteorology Performance Measures Transient GCM Simulations for Increasing CO2 and Aerosols Delta Precip, Temp Reliability of System Objectives Reservoir Model (ColSim) Hydrologic Model (VIC) DamReleases, Regulated Streamflow Natural Streamflow

  21. 2025

  22. 2045

  23. ColSim Reliability of System Objectives

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