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National Integrated Drought Information System. Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola-Chattahooche-Flint River Basin 5 June 2012. Outline. Welcome – Keith Ingram, UF, Southeast Climate Consortium Current drought status and how we got here – David Zierden , FSU, Florida Climate Center

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national integrated drought information system

National Integrated Drought Information System

Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola-Chattahooche-Flint River Basin

5 June 2012

outline
Outline

Welcome – Keith Ingram, UF, Southeast Climate Consortium

Current drought status and how we got here – David Zierden, FSU, Florida Climate Center

Streamflows and groundwater – Chris Smith, USGS

Apalachicola Salinity – Jenna Wanat, ANERR

Reservoir status and outlook – Bailey Crane, USACE

Seasonal outlooks – David Zierden

Streamflow forecasts – Todd Hammil, SE River Forecast Center

Summary and Discussion

new climate and weather page
New Climate and Weather Page

http://www.aces.edu/climate/

current drought status from drought monitor
Current drought status from Drought Monitor

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

cumulative rainfall deficits
Cumulative Rainfall Deficits

Past 30 days

Past 180 days

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages
Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages

Current:

Previous Brief:

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

below normal 7 day average streamflows
Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows

Previous brief:

Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown

Current:

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

lake lanier inflows
Lake Lanier Inflows

Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500)

Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

current streamflows
Current Streamflows

Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500)

Flint at Bainbridge (02356000)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

streamflows
Streamflows

Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

groundwater status
Groundwater Status

Miller County, GA

(Upper Floridan Aquifer)

http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

slide13

Apalachicola National Estuarine

Research Reserve

East Bay

Cat Point

Dry Bar

5 day precipitation forecast
5-Day Precipitation Forecast

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml

3 month outlook
3-Month Outlook

Precipitation

Temperature

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

seasonal hurricane forecast
Seasonal Hurricane Forecast

Colorado State University (Klotzbach and Gray):

10 Named Storms (12 is normal)

4 Hurricanes (6.5 is normal)

2 Major Hurricanes (2 is normal)

NOAA

70% chance of 9-15 named storms

4-8 Hurricanes

1-3 Major Hurricanes

Alberto

slide24

1-Month Streamflow Forecasts

Apalachicola Watershed

Southeast River Forecast Center

Lake Lanier Inflows

June 4 – July 4

2012

Whitesburg

Lovejoy

Above Normal

Carsonville

West Point

Near Normal

Columbus

Below Normal

Albany

WF George

Columbus

Woodruff

Blountstown

slide25

3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts

Apalachicola Watershed

Southeast River Forecast Center

Lake Lanier Inflows

June 4 – September 4

2012

Whitesburg

Lovejoy

Above Normal

Carsonville

West Point

Near Normal

Below Normal

Columbus

WF George

Albany

Columbus

Woodruff

Blountstown

summary
Summary

Although Tropical Storm Beryl brought heavy rains to NE Florida and SE Georgia, very little fell in the ACF River Basin so drought continues throughout most of the basin, with significant areas classified as extreme or exceptional

Streamflows in the upper basin are in the range of 10 to 24% of historical observations, whereas streamflow levels in the lower basin are below any previous observations

Groundwater in Miller County, GA remains in the range of the lowest 10% of historic observations

Salinity levels in Apalachicola Bay are near 15 ppt at East Bay Bottom, 25 ppt at Cat Point, and 30 ppt at Dry Bar

summary1
Summary

The 5-day outlook for rainfall is fair, with about 2 inches in the southern part of the basin but less than 1 inch in the northern part of the basin.

Current ENSO conditions are neutral, but their remains about a 50% chance that El Niño will develop in the fall

Both Colorado State U and NOAA forecast similar numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes for this summer, but the forecast does not predict where or whether these storms will make landfall

The streamflow forecast for the next 1 and 3 months continues to show a high probability that streamflows will remain below normal

references
References

Speakers

David Zierden, FSU

Chris Smith, USGS

Jenna Wanat, ANERR

Bailey Crane, US ACE

Todd Hammil, SERFC

Moderator

Keith Ingram, UF/SECC

Additional information

General drought information

http://drought.govhttp://www.drought.unl.edu

General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/

Streamflow monitoring

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Groundwater monitoring

http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

thank you
Thank you!

Next briefing – 14 June 2012, 1:00 pm EST

Slides from this briefing will be posted at http://www.drought.gov/portal/server.pt/community/acfrb

New Climate and Weather Page

http://www.aces.edu/climate/

Please send comments and suggestions to:

ktingram@ufl.edu