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Workforce and Economic Development

Workforce and Economic Development. Deleep Nair New York State Department of Labor Division of Research and Statistics Bureau of Labor Market Information Deleep.Nair@labor.ny.gov. A Look at Capital Region Labor Market Trends. Agenda. Data Sources

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Workforce and Economic Development

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  1. Workforce and Economic Development Deleep Nair New York State Department of Labor Division of Research and Statistics Bureau of Labor Market Information Deleep.Nair@labor.ny.gov A Look at Capital Region Labor Market Trends

  2. Agenda • Data Sources • Highlights of Capital Region Economic Development Strategic Plan • Capital Region demographics and projections • Labor force and unemployment • Median income • STEM degrees • Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) employment and new hires • Notes on the Data and Q&A

  3. Data Sources Census 2000 and 2010 Population Counts Cornell Program on Applied Demographics Population Projections by county Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program American Community Survey Public use Microdata Sample (ACS PUMS) 2005 to 2010 1-year samples Local Employment Dynamics Quarterly Workforce Indicators (LED QWI) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)

  4. Regional Economic Development Council (REDC) Goals and Economic Initiatives • In the Capital Region, many of the goals are not specifically geared toward increasing the number of jobs • “Establish a biotechnology and nano-biomedical research consortium to explore opportunities to collaborate on joint research grants.” • “Increase STEM degrees (Associates, Bachelor’s, Master’s and Doctoral) by 10% by 2020.” • “Our region strongly supports continued growth in advanced manufacturing…” Source: http://regionalcouncils.ny.gov/themes/nyopenrc/rc-files//capitalregion/CREDCStrategicPlan2011_onlineversion.pdf

  5. Demographics and Labor Force

  6. Capital Region Demographics • Population grew by 49,280 (+4.8%) since 2000 • The county leading the growth is Saratoga county (+18,972 or +9.5%) • Capital Region population is projected to increase by 2.1% (+22,531) by 2020 Sources: Census 2000 and Census 2010 Cornell Program on Applied Demographics county projections http://pad.human.cornell.edu/counties/index.cfm

  7. Race and EthnicityCapital Region Source: Census 2000 and Census 2010

  8. New York State and Capital Region Annual Unemployment Rates 1990-2011 Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program http://labor.ny.gov/stats/laus.asp

  9. Unemployment Rates by Gender Capital Region and New York State • Statistically significant difference between Capital Region male and female unemployment rates in 2009 and 2010 Source: American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample (ACS PUMS) 1-year Estimates, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010

  10. Unemployment Rates by Gender and Educational Attainment (25 Years and Older) Capital Region Source: American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample (ACS PUMS) 1-year Estimates, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010

  11. Labor Force by Gender and Educational Attainment (25 Years and Older)Capital Region Source: American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample (ACS PUMS) 1-year Estimates, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010

  12. Labor Force and Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) by Race and EthnicityCapital Region • 2.1% decrease in the White non-Hispanic labor force from 2008 to 2010 • 0.8% decrease in the Black non-Hispanic labor force from 2008 to 2010 Source: American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample (ACS PUMS) 1-year Estimates, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010

  13. Labor Force and Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) by Race and EthnicityCapital Region • 12.3% increase in the Asian non-Hispanic labor force from 2008 to 2010 • 17.4% increase in the Hispanic labor force labor force from 2008 to 2010 Source: American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample (ACS PUMS) 1-year Estimates, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010

  14. Income and School Majors

  15. Personal Income Quartiles by Educational AttainmentNew York State and Capital Region • Greater range of income in higher educational brackets • Capital Region income similar to NYS in lower educational brackets Source: 2010 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample (ACS PUMS) 1-year Estimates

  16. Recent Graduates with Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) and Non-STEM DegreesCapital Region • New category in ACS 2009 and 2010 1-Year datasets! • Trend upward in total number of recent graduates • Trend upward in STEM degrees • NOT statistically significant!! Source: American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample (ACS PUMS) 1-year Estimates, 2009-2010 STEM Designated Degree Programs: http://www.ice.gov/doclib/sevis/pdf/stem-list.pdf

  17. Median Income by College major for Terminal Bachelor’s earners (aged 25+)Capital Region • STEM major’s median income in the Capital Region is 101.5% of STEM major’s median income in NYS in 2009 • Non -STEM Major’s income in the Capital Region is 94.8% of non-STEM major’s median income in NYS in 2009 • Same trends hold for 2010 data Source: American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample (ACS PUMS) 1-year Estimates, 2009 and 2010

  18. New Hires and Employment A Look at LED QWI Data

  19. Average Yearly Employment (QWI vs. QCEW)New York State and Capital Region • Total employment from the Quarterly Census of Wages (QCEW) down 2.9% since 2007 in the Capital Region • Total employment from the QCEW down 2.4% since 2007 in NYS • Percent changes are higher in the Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) data but the trends are the same Sources: Local Employment Dynamics Quarterly Employment Indicators (LED QWI) http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/datatools/qwi-online.html Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) http://labor.ny.gov/stats/LSQCEW.shtm

  20. Average Yearly Employment by GenderCapital Region • Male average yearly employment down 4.7% since 2007 in Capital Region • Female average yearly employment down 3.3% since 2007 • Compare to 3.8% and 1.4% respectively for New York State for the same time period Source: Local Employment Dynamics Quarterly Employment Indicators (LED QWI) http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/datatools/qwi-online.html

  21. Stable New Hires by Educational Attainment Capital Region (Age 25+) Source: Local Employment Dynamics Quarterly Employment Indicators (LED QWI) http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/datatools/qwi-online.html

  22. Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Stable New Hires by Educational Attainment Capital Region(Age 25+) • From 2007 to 2010 there has been an 20.1% decrease in the number of stable new hires with Bachelor’s or better in the Capital Region • In total there has been a 19.6% decrease in stable new hires from 2007-2010

  23. Stable New Hires by Age Group Capital Region (25+) • 35 to 44 age group experienced the greatest drop in new Hire Employment from 2007 to 2010 Source: Local Employment Dynamics Quarterly Employment Indicators (LED QWI) http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/datatools/qwi-online.html

  24. Percent Change over Year in New Hires by Age Group Capital Region (25+) • From 2007 to 2010 there has been a 27.3% decrease in the number of stable new hires aged 35-44 in the Capital Region. • In total there has been a 19.6% decrease in stable new hires aged 25+ from 2007-2010

  25. Advanced Manufacturing and R&D Sectors Capital Region • R&D (including Biotechnology) experienced a 8.3% decline in average yearly employment since 2007. • Advanced Manufacturing experienced a 10.7% decline in average yearly employment since 2007 • R&D (including Biotechnology) almost flat since 2001 (-0.9%) • Advanced manufacturing down significantly since 2001 (-46.9%) Source: Local Employment Dynamics Quarterly Employment Indicators (LED QWI) http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/datatools/qwi-online.html

  26. Notes on the Data • ACS PUMS are a rich source of data by geographic area • Can only create 6 out of 10 Regional Economic Development Zones using the PUMAs

  27. Notes on the Data • 2010 Proposed PUMAs solve the problem of creating regional geographic aggregations using PUMAs! • Coming Fall 2012!

  28. Summary • ACS can be used for characteristic information of householders (race, ethnicity, income, college majors, etc…) • QWIs are useful for adding dimensionality to QCEW data (job flow, new hires, turnover, race, gender, age, etc…) • All data has its limitations!

  29. Questions?? Deleep.Nair@labor.ny.gov

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