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The end of utilities and networks – a distributed energy future?

The end of utilities and networks – a distributed energy future?. Prof Ray Wills Managing Director Future Smart Strategies Leader Western Australia Blue Australasia Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia Deputy Chair, and Chief Adviser

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The end of utilities and networks – a distributed energy future?

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  1. The end of utilities and networks– a distributed energy future? Prof Ray Wills Managing Director Future Smart Strategies Leader Western Australia Blue Australasia Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia Deputy Chair, and Chief Adviser Sustainable Energy Association of Australia @ProfRayWills

  2. Adoption rate of technology • What do markets tell us about how quickly disruptive technologies will impact on our businesses? • Natural rate of turnover and retirement in commodities. • But, adoption of new technology is often not just ‘natural’ • Transitions to new technology will be more rapid where changes are favoured by: • consumer sentiment; • policy measures and regulation; • pricing advantage. • Be ready to adopt and adapt to new paradigms. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. (Niels Bohr)

  3. Roger’s diffusion curve

  4. Wake up and smell the roses • Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs? • (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC • PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet • Landline -> mobile -> smartphone (BlackBerry) • Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store) • VHS/Beta -> DVD -> BlueRay • Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon) • Retail shop-> Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet • Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> wind -> solar

  5. Technology adoption rates – US • Will solar panels be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??) NY Times

  6. The Big Bang Theory NY Times

  7. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

  8. Technology adoption - manufacturers Zoepf 2011

  9. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

  10. Technology adoption rates

  11. Technology energy use Laptop Tablet Computer Televisions www.epri.com

  12. Electricity generation - Australia

  13. Renewable energy growth Data IEA

  14. Potential EV growth

  15. Global renewables 2014 +>

  16. Electricity market projections – WA

  17. Global renewables 2014 +>

  18. Forecasts not based on experience RicBrazzale, May 2013, based on BREE data

  19. Trends in car prices and CO2 2002-2010 How clean are Europe’s cars?

  20. Declining price on solar

  21. Declining price on solar

  22. Global renewables

  23. Global energy – fossil and renewables

  24. Global energy – impact on emissions

  25. US energy sources changing

  26. Solar on Australian homes • 1.2 million solar installs in Australia, total 3.3 GW of capacity; output estimated 4500 GWh of electricity in the 12 months to March 2014. • WA – 155,000 rooftops with solar, a total of 364MW of solar capacity • Mandurah (postcode 6210) – over 7500 homes, 15 MW of capacity

  27. Solar in Western Australian towns

  28. Solar and the utility duck

  29. Solving energy poverty

  30. Evolving markets

  31. Global renewables 2014 +>

  32. Solar and storage fight energy poverty • Developing nations can meet modest domestic power needs with solar. • Means storage is already economically affordable.

  33. @ProfRayWills

  34. The cost of electricity stacks up WA Price Stack (Western Power)

  35. VoteCompass Sep 2013 pre Australia Federal Election – 1.4 million responses

  36. Rapid change- mobility • Efficiency in transport • Energy storage key • New tech may be disruptive

  37. Electric mass transit • Siemens Bordeaux light rail • Hybrid battery-electric • Bombardier wireless battery-electric • Bombardier Slim Ride • Series 700 Shinkansen

  38. Commercialvehicles Smith Newton electric truck Diesel Electric hybrids • Honda prime mover • Volvo Hybrid - Veolia • London Bus- diesel hybrid, and electric • CAT Haul Pak + Earthmover • Oshkosh Military Vehicle

  39. Flying and floating fuels • 25 Feb 08 - Virgin Atlantic 1stbiofuel flight • (BTW - 1st USAF 30 Oct 07) • (Also BTW 14 Feb 11 - QANTAS) • 13 Sep 11 – US Navy announces Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuelsoperating independent of fossil fuelsupply line threat or disruption • And other diesel electric drives - MAN diesel

  40. Smart gridsdevices and buildings – and microgrids… • Integrated energy planning smart devices (not grids) to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators • Distributed generation changes utility paradigm

  41. Green cities consuming less energy • Global • Tianjin Eco-City China • Ulsan EcocityKorea • Masdar City UAE • Australia • City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030 • City of Melbourne • City of Townsville • City of Fremantle • Local government critical • Nimble government • Community demand

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