R . K. Pachauri

1. Climate Change and Sustainable Development R. K. Pachauri 26 June 2013 Dehradun, India

2. Climate change is unequivocal

3. Warming Of The Climate System Is Now Unequivocal • 125,000 years ago… • The polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period • … which led to reductions in polar ice volume and sea level rise of 4 to 6 . Palaeoclimatic information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years. Source : IPCC

4. Observed Changes Global average temperature Global average sea level Northern hemisphere snow cover Source : IPCC

5. Understanding climate change Causes of change • Global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004 • CO2 annual emissions grew by about 80% between 1970 and 2004 Most of the observed increase in temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations Source : IPCC

6. Global anthropogenic GHG emissions from 1970 to 2004 Source : IPCC

7. Abrupt And Irreversible Impacts • Partial loss of ice sheets on polar land could imply meters of sea level rise, major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas • 20-30% of species are likely to be at risk of extinction if increases in warming exceed 1.5-2.5°C • Large scale and persistent changes in Meridional Overturning Circulation would have impacts on marine ecosystem productivity, fisheries, ocean CO2 uptake and terrestrial vegetation Source: IPCC

8. Forests: properties, goods and services • Forests provide: • commercial timber goods • non-timber forest products, important for subsistence livelihoods • habitat provision for biodiversity • >75% of globally usable freshwater supplies come from forested catchments • recreational, cultural and spiritual benefits. • High deforestation and degradation is leading to about ¼ of anthropogenic CO2 emissions • But forests sequester the largest fraction of terrestrial ecosystem carbon stocks (about 220% of atmospheric carbon) Forests are among the most productive terrestrial ecosystems which makes them attractive for climate change mitigation and agricultural uses. Source: IPCC

9. Projected impacts of climate change on forests • Many forests may be impacted detrimentally from strong warming and its effects on water availability. • Drought conditions in forests can cause mortality and reduced resilience • Likelihood of increased wildfire sizes and frequenciescan be altered • Stress on trees that indirectly exacerbate disturbances (such as insects or fire). These effects may lead to losses of accumulated carbon from the soil and biosphere to the atmosphere, thereby amplifying global warming Source: IPCC

10. Role and limits of adaptation • Societies have a long recordof adapting to the impacts of weather and climate • Adaptation is necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions • Adaptation to the impacts of climate change & promotion of sustainable development share common goals But adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effectsof climate change Source : IPCC

11. Adaptation and Mitigation “Neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all climate change impacts; however, they can complement each other and together can significantly reduce the risks of climate change” - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Source : IPCC

12. Characteristics of Stabilization Scenarios Post-TAR stabilization scenarios Source : IPCC

13. Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth (for stabilization scenario of 445-535 ppm CO2-eq) GDP GDP without mitigation Mitigation would postpone GDP growth of one yearat most over the medium term GDP with stringent mitigation Current Time 2030 Source : IPCC

14. Opportunities – Mitigation targets Economic mitigation potential by sector in 2030 Source : IPCC

15. Forestry mitigation options • Forestry mitigation options include: • extending carbon retention in harvested wood products • product substitution • producing biomass for bio-energy • Long-term sustainable forest management strategies include: • increasing forest carbon stocks, • producing sustained yields of timber, fiber or energy from the forest • Most mitigation activities have benefits and co-benefits accruing for many years to decades. Forestry can make a very significant contribution to a low-cost global mitigation portfolio that provides synergies with adaptation and sustainable development. Source : IPCC

16. Realization of mitigation potential • Realization of the mitigation potential requires: • institutional capacity • investment capital • technology RD and transfer • appropriate policies and incentives • international cooperation In many regions, the institutional context and lack of political will to implement has resulted in the opportunity for potential forestry mitigation activities to be lost. Source : IPCC

17. What is REDD Plus? REDD + is a financial instrument to incentivize conservation and sustainable management of forests and thereby reducing GHG emissions from deforestation and forest degradation Underlying objectives: • Compensating the forest owners in developing countries for conserving forests by putting a value on the forest carbon stocks • The countries conserving forests forgo the economic gain of harvesting them as well as the benefits from alternative land use and hence need to be compensated for the same • Costs involved in conservation and SMF needs to be shared by other countries as the forests provide a range of offsite ecosystem services that benefit all • Given the livelihood linkage of forests in many developing countries, forest conservation imposes several direct and indirect costs

18. Forestry mitigation activities under the Kyoto Protocol • Forestry mitigation activities implemented under the Kyoto Protocol, (including CDM), have been limited. • Opportunities to increase activities include: • simplifying procedures • developing certainty over future commitments • reducing transaction costs • building confidence and capacity among potential buyers, investors and project participants Source : IPCC

19. “We may utilize the gifts of Nature just as we choose but in her books, the debits are always equal to the credits” - Mahatma Gandhi