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Future Threats, Dangers and Risks as seen by a Neutral State

NATO Wide Executive Development Programme Course. Future Threats, Dangers and Risks as seen by a Neutral State. Colonel Peter Schneider, 16.01.13. Classic military threats New military risks and threats Non-military dangers and risks.

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Future Threats, Dangers and Risks as seen by a Neutral State

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  1. NATO Wide Executive Development Programme Course Future Threats, Dangers and Risks as seen by a Neutral State Colonel Peter Schneider, 16.01.13

  2. Classic military threats New military risks and threats Non-military dangers and risks

  3. Dangers, risks and threats are not as such absolute values; they have to be equated with the People, States or Alliances who perceive themselves in danger, at risk or threatened.

  4. Assistance Mission to the AU KFOR Ocean Shield ACTIVE ENDEAVOUR ISAF EUMM Georgia EUPOL AFGHANISTAN EUFOR-ALTHEA, EUPM BiH EUBAM Rafah EULEX KOSOVO EUPOL COPPS EU SSR Guinea-Bissau EUJUST LEX Iraq EU NAVFOR ATALANTA EUSEC DR CONGO EUTM Somalia EUPOL DR CONGO

  5. Botulinum toxin inhaled

  6. Halabja, 16.03.1988

  7. Tokyo, 20.03.1995 12 / >5‘000

  8. Up to 2mio pa

  9. 8‘000t 800t 4‘000t IMF: 330 bn €

  10. Corruption Perception Index 2012

  11. In the year 2011 80% of the World’s population did live in States that show a Corruption Perception Index (CPI) of3.9 or less!

  12. 8 6 4 2 2050 1600 1900 1950 2000 1800

  13. [%] 100 [bn] 8 85 [%] 100 8 6 80 4 33 2 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000

  14. Energy consumption(worldwide, 2010) ~10% ~5% ~34% ~28% ~23% BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2011

  15. Production of bio fuels per annum: Approx. 50-200 mio. tons Diesel Germany: vehicle fuel per annum: Approx. 50 mio. t Irrigation for corn based bio fuel: up to 2 tons/liter

  16. Ø ≤ 0.1 mm Up to 12‘000 t oil / km2 Approx 15 t oil / km2 Cadarache

  17. Male Female 75+ 60-74 45-59 30-44 15-29 0-14 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 [%] [%] Population Age Distribution: Germany 2000

  18. Male Female 75+ 60-74 45-59 30-44 15-29 0-14 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 [%] [%] Population Age Distribution: Germany 2025

  19. Male Female 75+ 60-74 45-59 30-44 15-29 0-14 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 [%] [%] Population Age Distribution: Germany 2050

  20. Aging Population • Lower Birthrates • Elder Parents • Taxes • Birthrates • Immigration

  21. ?

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