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2. UNFCCC COP and MOP outcomes – a brief history and current status Parliament 27th October 2011 Dr Guy Midgley Chief Director South African National Biodiversity Institute; IPCC co-ordinating lead author

3. Most observed warming since the mid-20th century is very likely the result (confidence >90%) of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations – warming is unequivocal IPCC (2007) Climate challenge

4. History of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol • Rio Earth Summit 1992 established a framework Conventionto address climate change • Context: a new awareness of global sustainability and socio-economic shifts and links • Convention => high level statement of principle and approach, entered into force 1995 = COP1 • Subsequent negotiated decisions (COPs and inter-sessionals) give substance to the Convention and bind countries to implement with Secretariat support • Key principle “common but differentiated responsibilities”

5. Article 2 of the Convention (Objective) • Art 2 i: Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system • Art 2 ii: Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner

6. History of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol • Kyoto Protocoladopted 1997– legally binding instrument, sets net emissions targets for “Annex 1” countries and elaborates “modalities” (5.2% below 1990 levels by end of 1st commitment period) • USA did not accede, (Australia followed) thus creating major imbalance in system, especially fairness and competitiveness issues in Annex 1. • Delays in bringing Kyoto into effect, Russia’s signature in 2004 “activated” KP in 2004 • First MOP in Montreal in 2005 – 1st commitment period set for 2008-2012 • AWK-KP established to review Annex 1 targets

7. History of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol • COP13/MOP3 Bali • Bali Action Plan – focuses on 4 building blocks – mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology transfer • Ad hoc Working Group on Long term Co-operative Action (AWG-LCA) established to give substance to the Bali Action Plan • “Shared vision for long-term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for emission reductions” • Two-year “Bali roadmap” setting up COP15 in Copenhagen for a major move forward • Complex linkages between AWG-LCA and KP and delicate, complex “balance”

8. BALI TO COPENHAGEN (2007,8,9) • 2009 – deadline re 2nd commitment period; expectation to conclude negotiation on LCA • Technical negotiations stall on political issues • Japan, Russia, EU signal backtracking on Kyoto, some lack of transparency • Proposals for new Convention architecture & new protocol • Polarised politics, process stall progress on substance • Copenhagen Accord – political agreement recording consensus of key groups apart from ALBA therefore only “noted” by COP • Resolves key issue of “common but differentiated responsibility and respective capability” particularly around mitigation, review of global goal, deforestation • Does not resolve global goal, level of ambition or Kyoto Protocol (implication for carbon “space”)

9. CANCUN outcomes (2010) • Sets up largest collective effort so far to reduce emissions, in a mutually accountable way, with national plans captured formally at international level under UNFCCC (Copenhagen Accord +) • Comprehensive package framework to help developing nations deal on climate change:finance, technology, capacity-building support to meet urgent adaption needs, and to adopt sustainable paths to low emission economies resilient to adverse impacts of climate change (incl. Green Climate Fund) • Schedule for nations to review the progress towards objective of keeping the average global temperature rise below 2°C • Agreement to review whether the objective needs to be strengthened in future (1.5°C?), on the basis of the best scientific knowledge available Current pledges projected outcome

10. Growth rate 2000-2009 2.5 % per year CO2 emissions (Pg C y-1) CO2 emissions (Pg CO2 y-1) Growth rate 1990-1999 1 % per year Time (y) Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions 2009: Emissions:8.4±0.5 PgC Growth rate: -1.3% 1990 level: +37% 2000-2008 Growth rate: +3.2% 2010 (projected): Growth rate: >3% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

11. The Berkeley Earth Project