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Aviation Safety Challenges and Opportunities for COSCAP Regional Safety Teams. A Manufacturer’s Perspective. Gerard Guyot Safety Consultant Airbus. Hank Reed Aviation Safety The Boeing Company. Aviation Safety: Some Perspective. Worldwide:

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slide1

Aviation Safety Challenges

and Opportunities for COSCAP Regional Safety Teams

A Manufacturer’s Perspective

Gerard Guyot

Safety Consultant

Airbus

Hank Reed

Aviation Safety

The Boeing Company

aviation safety some perspective
Aviation Safety: Some Perspective

Worldwide:

  • An airplane is landing approximately every two seconds somewhere in the world
    • Approximately 53,000 flights per day
  • More than 3 million people fly each day
  • In 2006, Over 1.2 billion people flew on over 20 million flights
  • In 2006, there was 7 fatal accidents
airline travel is extraordinarily safe
Airline Travel is Extraordinarily Safe

42,643

U.S. Transportation Fatalities – 2003*

Source: NTSB

Number

of

Fatalities

767

703

626

622

73

47

Highway

Recreational

boating

and other

marine

Rail

transportation

Bicycles

General

aviation

Commercial

Airlines*

Other

commercial

aviation

*5-Year (ending in 2003) average for commercial Jets, U.S. operations only

09-15-04 PUB-015

slide4

… And we are making progress!

Hull Loss Accident Rate

Western-Built Worldwide Commercial Jets (>60,000 lbs) 1993 - 2005

2.00

5 year running average

Hull Loss Accident Rate

(per million departures)

1.60

1.20

0.80

Industry/Government Collaborative Efforts

0.40

0.00

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

slide5

We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety…

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

Annual Hull loss accident rate

[Accidents per million departures]

10

5

0

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

1-19-05 FT-004Wc

slide6

We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety…

50

32,495

20,042

Airplanes in service

45

40

35

2006

2021

30

25

20

Departures, Millions

15

10

Annual Hull loss accident rate

[Accidents per million departures]

5

0

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

1-19-05 FT-004Wc

slide7

We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety…

50

32,495

20,042

Airplanes in service

45

40

35

2006

2021

Hull loss accidentsper year

30

Business as usual

25

20

15

Departures per year,

Millions

10

Reductions possible with

continued Industry effort

Annual Hull loss accident rate

[Accidents per million departures]

5

0

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

1-19-05 FT-004Wc

departures and flight hours worldwide operations 1987 through 2006
Departures and Flight HoursWorldwide Operations* 1987 through 2006

45

40.3

Flight hours

Departures

40

35

Annual departures and

flight hours (millions)

30

25

20.0

20

15

10

5

0

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

Year

  • 487.5 million cumulative departures since 1959 (396.1 million on Boeing airplanes)
  • 874.4 million cumulative flight hours since 1959 (684.9 million on Boeing airplanes)
  • 7 manufacturers – 35 significant types (14 Boeing) in service as of 12/31/2006

*Western fleet

worldwide commercial jet fleet is growing but there are limits to growth
Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet is Growing, But There are Limits to Growth

32,000

LIMITS TO GROWTH

30000

  • Safety/SecurityPerceptions
  • Traffic Congestion
  • Environmental Factors

25000

20000

Number of

airplanes at

years end

GROWTH

15000

  • Public Confidence
  • Strong Economies
  • Peace & Prosperity

10000

5000

0

2015

2002

2005

2010

2020

because the aviation system is complex all parts of industry must work together
Because the Aviation System Is Complex,All Parts of Industry Must Work Together

150,000+ flight crew

200+ languages

800+ airlines

200+ countries

1,350+ major airports

More than 21,000

airplanes

240,000+ maintenance

personnel

safety responsibilities are shared safe airplane safe operation safe infrastructure safe air travel
Safety Responsibilities Are SharedSafe Airplane + Safe Operation + Safe Infrastructure = Safe Air Travel
  • Aviation law
  • Operations specification
  • Rules and regulations
  • Inspectors policy,procedures, and training
  • Airline policy andprocedures requirements
  • Safety, health, environmentallaw, and regulations
  • Navigation facilities/operations
  • Airport facilities
  • Departure en route, arrival, approach policy, andprocedures
  • Air traffic control services
  • Safety-related analysis

Air Safety

Governments

Manufacturers

  • Safe airplane design
  • Safety-enhancing technologydevelopment
  • Flight and maintenance operations, recommendations,documents, training, andsupport
  • Maintenance planning
  • Safety-related analysis
  • Safety initiatives

Operators

  • Operations policy andprocedures
  • Airplane/pilot publications
  • Approved maintenanceprogram
  • Maintenance, policy, andprocedures
  • Maintenance publications
  • Safety program
  • Training
slide12

Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident Category

Fatal Accidents – Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 1997 Through 2006

1800

1643 (67)

ARC Abnormal Runway Contact

CFIT Controlled Flight into or Toward Terrain

F-NI Fire/Smoke (Non-Impact)

FUEL Fuel Related

LOC-G Loss of Control – Ground

LOC-I Loss of Control – In flight

MAC Midair/Near Midair Collision

OTHR Other

RAMP Ground Handling

RE Runway Excursion

RI-VAP Runway Incursion – Vehicle, Aircraft or Person

SCF-NP System/Component Failure or Malfunction (Non-Powerplant)

SCF-PP System/Component Failure or Malfunction (Powerplant)

TURB Turbulence Encounter

USOS Undershoot/Overshoot

UNK Unknown or Undetermined

WSTRW Wind shear or Thunderstorm

No accidents were noted in the following categories:

AMAN Abrupt Maneuver

ADRM Aerodrome

ATM Air Traffic Management/ Communications, Navigation, Surveillance

CABIN Cabin Safety Events

EVAC Evacuation

F-POST Fire/Smoke (Post-Impact)

GCOL Ground Collision

ICE Icing

LALT Low Altitude Operations

RI-A Runway Incursion – Animal

SEC Security Related

For a complete description go to: http://www.intlaviationstandards.org/

1655 (0)

External fatalities [Total 249]

Onboard fatalities [Total 5,149]

1600

1400

1200

Fatalities

1000

800

600

Onboard fatalities

546 (0)

External fatalities

400

262 (77)

156 (71)

200

120 (0)

126 (0)

124 (2)

110 (10)

110 (4)

107 (1)

109 (1)

55 (9)

23 (0)

0 (7)

2 (0)

1 (0)

0

LOC-I

CFIT

SCF-

RE

MAC

LOC-G

OTHR

UNK

RI-VAP

F-NI

USOS

WSTRW

ARC

FUEL

RAMP

SCF-

TURB

NP

PP

Number of fatal accidents (89 total)

19

20

5

8

2

1

5

2

3

2

3

2

6

2

1

1

7

Note: Principal categories as assigned by CAST.

slide13

Fatal Accidents and Onboard Fatalities by Phase of Flight

Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 1997 Through 2006

Percentage of accidents/fatalities

32%

19%

Taxi, load/

unload parked, tow

Final

Initial

Initial

Climb

Descent

approach

approach

Takeoff

climb

Landing

(flaps up)

Cruise

5%

10%

10%

Fatal Accidents

11%

8%

22%

13%

11%

10%

Q

6%

15%

14%

12%

17%

5%

0%

12%

19%

Onboard Fatalities

20%

29%

Initial approach fix

Final approach fix

Exposure* (Percentage of flight time estimated for a

1.5 hour flight)

11%

3%

12%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

14%

57%

*Percentages do not sum to 100% due to numerical rounding.

2000

100

Distribution of fatal accidents and onboard fatalities

Fatal accidents

80

Onboard fatalities

1500

Onboard fatalities

Fatalities

Fatal accidents

60

967

1000

858

788

716

40

617

625

20

500

299

20

275

10

11

10

9

9

9

7

4

4

0

0

Taxi, load/

unload

parked,

tow

Takeoff

Initial

Climb

Cruise

Descent

Initial

Final

Landing

climb

approach

approach

21

2006 STATISTICAL SUMMARY, JULY 2007

fatal accidents asia including china airline domicile 1997 through 2006
Fatal Accidents - Asia (including China) Airline Domicile - 1997 Through 2006

Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident Category

1200

External fatalities [Total 64]

Onboard fatalities [Total 1,815]

ARC Abnormal Runway Contact

CFIT Controlled Flight into or Toward Terrain

F-NI Fire/Smoke (Non-Impact)

LOC-I Loss of Control – In flight

RE Runway Excursion

SCF-NP System/Component Failure or Malfunction (Non-Powerplant)

SCF-PP System/Component Failure or Malfunction (Powerplant)

No accidents were noted in the following categories:

AMAN Abrupt Maneuver

ADRM Aerodrome

ATM Air Traffic Management/ Communications, Navigation, Surveillance

CABIN Cabin Safety Events

EVAC Evacuation

F-POST Fire/Smoke (Post-Impact)

FUEL Fuel Related

GCOL Ground Collision

ICE Icing

LALT Low Altitude Operations

LOC-G Loss of Control – Ground

MAC Midair/Near Midair Collision

OTHR Other

RAMP Ground Handling

RI-A Runway Incursion – Animal

RI-VAP Runway Incursion – Vehicle, Aircraft or Person

SEC Security Related

TURB Turbulence Encounter

USOS Undershoot/Overshoot

UNK Unknown or Undetermined

WSTRW Wind shear or Thunderstorm

For a complete description go to: http://www.intlaviationstandards.org/

980

1000

800

Onboard fatalities

Fatalities

External fatalities

600

462(61)

400

225

200

108

38(3)

1

1

0

CFIT

LOC-I

SCF-

RE

ARC

FIRE-NI

SCF-

NP

PP

Number of

Fatal

Accidents

(22)

8

6

1

2

3

1

1

Note: Principal categories as assigned by CAST.

slide15

Asia (Including China) Airline Domicile

Fatal Accidents by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident Category

CFIT

LOC-I

ARC

RE

SCF-NP

F-NI

SCF-PP

8

6

3

2

1

1

1

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

ARC Abnormal Runway Contact

CFIT Controlled Flight into or Toward Terrain

F-NI Fire/Smoke (Non-Impact)

LOC-I Loss of Control – In flight

RE Runway Excursion

SCF-NP System/Component Failure or Malfunction (Non-Powerplant)

SCF-PP System/Component Failure or Malfunction (Powerplant)

No accidents were noted with the following principal categories:

AMAN Abrupt Maneuver

ADRM Aerodrome

ATM Air Traffic Management/Communications, Navigation, Surveillance

CABIN Cabin Safety Events

EVAC Evacuation

F-POST Fire/Smoke (Post-Impact)

FUEL Fuel Related

GCOL Ground Collision

ICE Icing

LALT Low Altitude Operations

LOC-G Loss of Control – Ground

MAC Midair/Near Midair Collision

OTHR Other

RAMP Ground Handling

RI-A Runway Incursion – Animal

RI-VAP Runway Incursion – Vehicle, Aircraft or Person

SEC Security Related

TURB Turbulence Encounter

USOS Undershoot/Overshoot

UNK Unknown or Undetermined

WSTRW Wind shear or Thunderstorm

For a complete description go to: http://www.intlaviationstandards.org/

Note: Principal categories as assigned by CAST

regional perspective
Regional Perspective

Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World

Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1997 through 2006

C.I.S.

4.9

Europe

0.7

ESSI

China

0.3

United States

and Canada

0.5

CAST

Middle East

3.0

Asia

1.9

(Excluding

China)

COSCAPS

Africa

12.0

PAAST

ASET

Latin America

and Caribbean

2.4

Oceania

0.0

World

1.16

Accidents per

million departures

possible reasons for regional accident rate differences
Possible Reasons for Regional Accident Rate Differences
  • Infrastructure
    • Air traffic control
    • Navigation aids
    • Airport equipment
    • Weather services
  • Airline operations
    • Procedures
    • Training
    • Maintenance
    • Dispatch
  • Regulatory oversight
    • Aviation law
    • Regulation
    • Personnel qualifications
    • Resource constraints
slide18

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

Industry

Government

AIA

Airbus

ALPA

APA

ATA

NACA

Boeing

GE*

RAA

FSF

IATA

AAPA

ATAC

APFA

  • DOD
  • FAA
    • Aircraft Certification
    • Flight Standards
    • System Safety
    • Air Traffic Operations
    • Research
  • NASA
  • ICAO
  • EASA
  • TCC
  • NATCA
  • NTSB

Commercial Aviation

Safety Team

(CAST)

*Representing P&W and RR

worldwide risk analysis
Worldwide Risk Analysis
  • CAST plan developed to reduce fatality risk in U.S. Part 121 operations
  • Question was raised by ICAO, PAAST and ESSI as to effectiveness of CAST plan worldwide
  • Worldwide fatal accident data from 1987 – 2001 analyzed using the CAST selection tool
    • 331 accidents, which had sufficient data, were analyzed and scored
portion of the fatality risk in each accident location region attributed to cfit
Portion of the Fatality Risk in Each Accident Location RegionAttributed to CFIT

(1987-2001 Equivalent Part 121 Fatal Accidents)

100

90

80

70

Portion of Regional Fatality Risk

60

50

40

30

20

10

Asia

Africa

Europe

Latin America

& Caribbean

North America

slide21

Portion of the Fatality Risk in Each Accident Location Region

Attributed to CFIT That Can be Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted

(2007 Implementation Values)

1987-2001 Equivalent Part 121 Fatal and Hull Loss Accidents

70

Risk Eliminated

60

Risk Remaining

50

Portion of

Regional

Fatality

Risk

(Percent)

40

30

20

10

0

Asia

Africa

Europe

Latin America

& Caribbean

World

North America

conclusion
Conclusion
  • Commercial air travel is extraordinarily safe, but improvements must continue to be made
  • Not all areas or environments of the world are the same — we need to use facts, data, and continuing insight to focus appropriate improvement efforts
  • Improving safety in Asia is a shared responsibility of the manufacturers, the airline operators, and Government/State authorities, but it will take willingness and commitment to make it happen
  • COSCAP regional safety teams and similar safety organizations can help to reduce accident risk
  • Considerations should be given to implementing appropriate CAST Safety Enhancements to reduce fatality risk
  • Airbus and Boeing are committed to help enhance aviation safety
  • Rapid growth of commercial aviation in ASIA presents significant challenges
next steps
Next Steps
  • Measure implementation levels and effectiveness of processes and procedures already put in place (e.g. adopted CAST Safety Enhancements)
  • Integrate appropriate elements of the Global Aviation Safety Roadmap
  • Identify gaps that exist and form plans to address
  • Establish an information-sharing process to better gauge effectiveness of enhancements and identify emerging threats