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By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. November 17, 2008

Daytime Drama. On Behalf of the Maryland Association of Realtors . By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. November 17, 2008. As the World Turns (more slowly). Historic and Projected World Output Growth, 2004 through 2009*. Source: International Monetary Fund.

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By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. November 17, 2008

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  1. Daytime Drama On Behalf of the Maryland Association of Realtors By: AnirbanBasu Sage Policy Group, Inc. November 17, 2008

  2. As the World Turns (more slowly)

  3. Historic and Projected World Output Growth, 2004 through 2009* Source: International Monetary Fund *2008-2009 data are projections

  4. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas, 2008 Source: International Monetary Fund

  5. 2008 Political and Economic Risk Map Source: Oxford Analytica

  6. NYMEX Crude Oil Future Prices in U.S. DollarsJune 1995 through November 3, 2008 Source: Energy Information Administration Oil Futures Future Prices are the lowest since May 2007 at $63.91 as of Nov. 3.

  7. Global Risk Factors Upside Risk to Global Growth Downside Risk to Global Growth Source: International Monetary Fund Chart indicates relative contributions to risks to global growth WEO = World Economic Outlook (IMF)

  8. Top 12 Stock Exchanges YTD Growth, as of Oct. 23 Close Source: Yahoo! Finance

  9. Days of Our Lives

  10. Dow Days Afternoon Source: Google Finance DOW 9/22: Opened at 11,394.42 10/24: Closed at 8,387.95, Down 26.4%

  11. Conference Board Consumer Expectations IndexOctober 2001 through October 2008 Source: Conference Board

  12. Retail & Food Services SalesJanuary 2001 through October 2008 Source: Dismal.com

  13. 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through September 2008 Source: Freddie Mac

  14. U.S. New Home SalesJanuary 1999 through September 2008 Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau

  15. U.S. New Residential Construction January 1999 through September 2008 Source: Economy.com

  16. Current Hot Metro Housing Markets (150)Annual Existing Single-Family Home Price Appreciation 2007Q2 vs. 2008Q2 Boston: -10.8% New York: -5.3% Philly: -3.0% Baltimore: -4.5% Washington: -16.8% Source: National Association of Realtors U.S.: -7.6% in 2008Q2

  17. Worst Performing Metro Housing Markets (150)Annual Existing Single-Family Home Price Appreciation 2007Q2 vs. 2008Q2 Source: National Association of Realtors U.S.: -7.6% in 2008Q2

  18. Maryland Median Home Prices, Oct. 08 vs. Oct. 07 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  19. Maryland Home Sales, Oct. 08 vs. Oct. 07 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  20. Active Housing Inventory by Suburban MD, October 2007 vs. October2008 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Oct. 2007: 49,136; Oct. 2008: 49,125

  21. Active Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction, October 2007 vs. October 2008 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Oct. 2007: 49,136; Oct. 2008: 49,125

  22. Mortgage Banker’s Association Delinquency Rates, Prime Mortgage Loans, 2005Q1 through 2008Q2 Source: Economy.com The delinquency rate does not include loans in the process of foreclosure.  The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process was 1.42 percent of all prime loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter, an increase of 22 basis points from the first quarter of 2007.

  23. Mortgage Banker’s Association Delinquency Rates, Subprime Mortgage Loans, 2005Q1 through 2008Q2 Source: Economy.com The delinquency rate does not include loans in the process of foreclosure.  The percentage of subprime loans in the foreclosure process was 18.67 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fsecond quarter, decrease of 12 basis points from the first quarter of 2008.

  24. Maryland Auto SalesSep. 2001- Oct. 2008 Source: Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration Oct. 08 New Car Sales: 23,216, down 29.6% from Oct. 07 Oct. 08 Used Car Sales: 50,727, down 14.5% from Oct. 07

  25. CPISeptember 2008 CPI : +4.9% Core CPI*: +2.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *Core CPI: All items less food and energy

  26. U.S. Trade Deficit, January 2001 through September 2008 Source: Dismal.com

  27. Value of the Dollar (Broad Dollar Index) January 1999 through October 2008 Source: Federal Reserve Board Broad Dollar Index: a weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. trading partners.

  28. U.S. Federal Budget Deficit, 1995-2010* Source: Congressional Budget Office *2007-2010 data are projections

  29. Guiding Light

  30. Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2008Q3 2008Q3: -0.3% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  31. Contributions to GDP Growth by Component, 2008Q3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  32. Net Change in U.S. JobsJanuary 2000 through October 2008 10/08: -240k Over the last 12 months (Oct.. to Oct.) the U.S. lost 1,078k jobs Source: Economy.com, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  33. National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector GroupsOctober 2007 v. October 2008Absolute Change -1,078k All Told Bush Scorecard Private Sector: +2,769,000 Public Sector: +1,661,000 Total: +4,430,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  34. Maryland Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector GroupsSeptember 2007 v. September 2008 Absolute Change MD Total: +28.6K; +1.1% US Total: -519K; -0.4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  35. Baltimore MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA) September 2007 v. September 2008Absolute Change Baltimore MSA Total: +8.4K; +0.6% MD Total: +28.2K; +1.1% US Total: -722K; -0.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  36. Washington, D.C. MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)September 2007 v. September 2008Absolute Change DC MSA Total: +35.4K; +1.5% US Total: -722K; -0.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  37. Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) September 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics • U.S. Unemployment Rate: September 08=6.1%

  38. MD County Unemployment Rates, Sept. 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  39. Search for Tomorrow • National economy set to slow as housing market weakness continues and as employers become considerably more defensive; • Second half of year much much worse than the first; • $700 billion represented a cap whereby federal government could choose assets it wants to buy through reverse auction (lowest offered price wins); & • Washington, D.C. is the new financial capital of North America.

  40. Thank You • You can always reach me at abasu@sagepolicy.com • If you appreciate this type of information and would like regular updates, please see our newsletter service at www.spgtrend.com • Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE) • Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.

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