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Expected results from this afternoon

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  1. Expected results from this afternoon Each module/WP/working group make a statement on progress versus module/WP objectives, identify new papers and remaining (realistic) work and expected results before the end of the project, identify possible deviations (for ”avviksrapport”). Suggest to start with: • NOClim A and ProClim WP4 (Helge), Tor (WP1) in room 1 • NOClim C (Arne/Øystein/…?) in room 2 • NOClim B (Trond) in room 7 • ProClim WP2 (Peter) and 3 (Bjørn) in the main meeting room Crosscutting issues • Synthesis of our understanding and ability to model variations in deep water ventilation in conditions of changing surface climate (shelves, deep sea, eddy and cross-slope fluxes, boundary currents) -> Multi-authored paper/summary report? • …You make other suggestions: Title, Lead authors, journal/medium, time Propose to leave afternoon open and report tomorrow morning at 9:00? • Final session tomorrow on outreach and reporting start with plan (Peter/Lars Henrik) followed by discussion (think about good ideas: topics, people, media) • All: Check publication list on www.noclim.org and send update to Lars Henrik

  2. Some issues from ProClim WP2 and WP3 All objectives, as stated in the project description, are or will be met. Very significant scientific progress has been made. However, some points to note and lessons learnt: • Field work should always be planned to be done or repeated over several years (as in this project plan). The availability of long time series and observational data from previous years has proven important. • Development of a fully coupled fine scale atmosphere-ice-ocean model will end before the tool has been brought to a level where important scientific studies have been executed. Such model development is still desirable, but long-term stable efforts beyond NOClim would be required. • Ice-ocean model studies using high-resolution wind forcing are still ongoing. Results from those will be important for concluding the relative importance of improved ice physics and atmospheric forcing for polynya dynamics.

  3. Outreach and plan of activities Schedule (things that are decided): • ProClim progress report Sept/Oct. • RAPID meeting in October • Other meetings/presentations? AGU December, … • NOClim final report December/Jan. • NORKLIMA meeting February 2007 Possible other ”outlets”: • Bulletin of American Met Society • EOS • Ambio/Naturen • Cicerone, forskning.no, … • Aftenposten, VG, Dagbladet • Brochure (paper and on web site)

  4. NOClim Phase II 2003-2006 The principal objective of the project is to significantly improve our understanding of processes which govern oceanic heat transport towards the Nordic Seas, and which provide the basis for atmospheric heat transport from the Atlantic sector towards northern Europe. Subgoals: • To elucidate how stable the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is to human induced greenhouse warming. • To identify whether rapid climate transitions in the past were associated with changes in the overturning rate in the Nordic Seas. • To investigate whether the balance of evidence (from observations, process understanding and models) indicates that abrupt changes are underway or likely to happen in the near future.

  5. NOClim Phase II - three (four) modules • Module A: Theory and modelling of meridional oceanic heat transport • To elucidate how stable the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is to human induced greenhouse warming (Drange, Nøst, LaCasce, Melsom) • Module B: Analysis of abrupt changes in the past • To identify whether rapid climate transitions in the past were associated with changes in the overturning rate in the Nordic Seas.(Dokken/Østerhus)

  6. NOClim Phase II - three (four) modules • Module C: Analysis of modern variability and detection of significant changes To investigate whether the balance of evidence (from observations, process understanding and models) indicates that abrupt changes are underway or likely to happen in the near future. (Mauritzen/Loeng, Skagseth, Mork, ...) • Module D = ProClim (next page) SSG: Haugan, Marotzke, Drange, Nøst, Dokken, Østerhus, Mauritzen, Loeng + Eldevik, Ådlandsvik. Project manager: Peter M. Haugan Project office: Solfrid S. Hjøllo/Lars Henrik Smedsrud: Synthesis, external activitites.

  7. Polar Ocean Climate Processes (ProClim) 2003-2006 (= module D in NOClim) Overall objective: to quantify and understand climate processes in polar marginal seas, with emphasis on the western Barents Sea, Svalbard region and Greenland Sea, in order to improve our understanding of future regional and global climate and its predictability.

  8. Polar Ocean Climate Processes (ProClim) 2003-2006 Four work packages (WPs): • Deep mixing and sinking: Tor Eldevik, Ole Anders Nøst, Truls Johannessen, Yoshie Kasajima. • Water mass formation on shelves: Peter M. Haugan, W. Paul Budgell, Anne Sandvik, Alastair Jenkins, Lars-Henrik Smedsrud, Frank Nilsen, Ragnheid Skogseth (Post Doc). • Slope convection and overflows off shelves: Bjørn Ådlandsvik, Harald Loeng, Ilker Fer, Svein Østerhus, Tor Eldevik. • Integration by (basin scale) models, observations and theory (2005-2006 only): Helge Drange, Paul Budgell, Harald Loeng, NN (Post Doc IMR), Jan Even Øie Nilsen (Post Doc NERSC).

  9. Polar Ocean Climate Processes (ProClim)Work packages 1-4

  10. ProClim - subgoals (1) • to identify the parameters setting the mode of Greenland Sea convection (WP 1) • to understand dense water formation on polar shelves, and develop high resolution atmosphere, ice and ocean model tools which properly describe the processes (WP 2) • to measure major cold outflows from the shelf region and understand the mixing processes determining their fate. (WP 3)

  11. ProClim – subgoals (2) • to assess the variable contributions to deep mixing and sinking from shelves and in the deep ocean and understand the regional interaction between the processes. (WP 4) Some key activities: • Development of coupled fine scale atmosphere-ice-ocean polynya model (in WP2) • Microstructure measuring system (MSS) (in WP3) • Trawl-proof bottom-mounted ADCPs in Storfjordrenna and south of Bjørnøya, contribution to ASOF (in WP3)