slide1 l.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Regional assessments of sea level rise and river floods by computer based expert systems: Dealing with uncertainty PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Regional assessments of sea level rise and river floods by computer based expert systems: Dealing with uncertainty

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 21

Regional assessments of sea level rise and river floods by computer based expert systems: Dealing with uncertainty - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 129 Views
  • Uploaded on

Regional assessments of sea level rise and river floods by computer based expert systems: Dealing with uncertainty. J. Kropp, M. Kallache, H. Rust, K. Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Structure. How to deal with uncertainty in the adaptation discussion?

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Regional assessments of sea level rise and river floods by computer based expert systems: Dealing with uncertainty' - chenoa


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
slide1
Regional assessments of sea level rise and river floods by computer based expert systems: Dealing with uncertainty

J. Kropp, M. Kallache, H. Rust, K. EisenackPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Structure

How to deal with uncertainty in the adaptation discussion?

Adaptation to sea level rise: Regional assessments via DIVA

River floods assessment, limitations and Chances: The Vistula example

Consequences for local adaptation policies

Conclusion

kropp@pik-potsdam.de

slide2
kropp@pik-potsdam.de

Where are our „Achilles heels“: in the economic, natural,

and social sense?

miserable waterflood in lower germany 1717
kropp@pik-potsdam.de„Miserable Waterflood in Lower-Germany 1717“

At the North sea coast

dyke construction

since 1100AD

Reasons:

Maladaptation!

mainly landuse

slide5
kropp@pik-potsdam.de

Back to Reality:

River Elbe Flood 2002/Pärnu Storm Surge 2005

how to assess protection level
kropp@pik-potsdam.deHow to assess “protection level”

Wave overflow: Return level right Weser bank for current dyke heights (3900yr)

Climate change scenario: average high tide + 70cm +3.8% increase of wind speed

(return level 1000yrs).

(after Liedermann & Zimmermann 2003) COSTS? Secondary effects?…..

initial settings for diva runs
kropp@pik-potsdam.deInitial Settings for DIVA Runs

Protection level: 1000yr/return level, storm surge/river flood

Dike failure (breach) mode: wave overflow

Tidal basin, nourishment: CBA

Migration allowed due to changing env. conditions: yes

Time steps of calculation: 5 yrs

Simulation time: 2000-2100

Input SRES scenarios: A1FI („worst case“), B2 („best case“);

regionalized SLR scenarios based on PIK‘s CLIMBER model

(for each SRES family, low/medium/high-uniform/regionalized)

regional sealevel rise 1995 2100 sres a1fi b2
kropp@pik-potsdam.de

Worst case: A1FI

Best case: B2

Regional Sealevel Rise: 1995-2100SRES-A1FI/B2

How large the adaptation

costs will be?

adaptation costs sea level rise dike construction preservation beach nourishment etc
kropp@pik-potsdam.deAdaptation Costs: Sea Level Rise(dike construction & preservation, beach nourishment, etc.)

Year 2000

Year: 2100

total adaptation costs mio us
kropp@pik-potsdam.de

A1FI: Most relevant for Estonia due to sandy beaches and no dikes

Start-up investments

to guarantee 1000yr

protection level

needed....

Total Adaptation Costs (Mio US$)
other possible things
kropp@pik-potsdam.deOther Possible Things.....

Salinity intrusion costs

Sea dike costs

River dike costs

People actually flooded per storm surge

Sand loss

Loss of flats

Beach nourishment costs

Area influenced by salinization due to slr

Tidal basin demand for sand nourishment

....

Typical expert system which means that usage by stakeholders

Needs involvement of experts for simulation runs and interpretation

improved flood risk assessment
kropp@pik-potsdam.deImproved Flood Risk Assessment

Retrospective on river run-offs: assumptions needed, e.g. climate change signal can be found in run-off data (trend = nonstationarity)

Main results:

No uniform behaviour for rivers worldwide

Standard statistics is unsuitable for assessment tasks

Adequate analytical procedures can confine uncertainty

Examples (annual – stationary, implies no trends!):

Odra/Gozdowice (109729 km2, Poland)

Vistula/Tczew (194376 km2, Poland)

Daugava/Daugavpils (64500 km2Latvia)

Nemunas/Smalininkai (81200 km2 Lithuania)

But is this the end of the story?

trend s and extremes in time series
kropp@pik-potsdam.de

Extremes?

Trends and Extremes in Time Series

Definition: A trend is a long-term movement which can be

distinguished from oscillation and noise.

x(t) = Trend(t) + Oscillations(t) + Noise(t)

gauge daugava daugavapils jja
kropp@pik-potsdam.deGauge: Daugava/Daugavapils (JJA)

Linear trend in mean

and variance (1,1,0 -

obtained via model fit

routines)

Design flood values

differ significantly!

More torrential rain

in summer: regime

shift!

Kallache/Rust/Kropp 2005: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics

bootstrapping for confining uncertainty
kropp@pik-potsdam.deBootstrapping for Confining Uncertainty

Gauge: Vistula/Tczew:

Catchment: ~200.000 km2

Length: 1900-1994

Problem: data series too short!

Huge model library (more than 50)

Define model selection criteria

Select best fitting model

Generate bootstrap ensemble

Perform statistics

Results:

Red: theory, asymptotic fit

Grey: bootstrap ensemble

100yr return level9

Estimates for „design flood values“ are too small (6-15% difference!)

Rust/Kallache/Kropp 2006: Advances in Water

Resources Res., under review

slide20
kropp@pik-potsdam.de

Conclusion - Main Findings with Respect to Adaptation

1. Improved technique integrated and views can reduce adverse impacts

2. Communities can adapt autonomously only partly, they need help

of scientists

4. Planned (anticipated )adaptation measures usually have immediate benefits

6. Adaptive capacity varies considerably among countries, regions and socio-economic groups

8. Enhancement of adaptive capacity is necessary to reduce vulnerability, especially for the most vulnerable (people, regions…)

9. Current knowledge of adaptation & adaptive capacity is insufficient

10. Technical progress is essential for suitable adaptation

slide21
kropp@pik-potsdam.de

Climate Disruptions,

Heart Attacks and Market Crashes

We need a new science

and planning for disasters....

Bunde/Kropp/Schellnhuber,

Springer 2002