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One Box or Two?

One Box or Two?. Newcomb’s Paradox: The Setup.

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One Box or Two?

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  1. One Box or Two?

  2. Newcomb’s Paradox:The Setup You are going to play a game with God. The game involves two boxes, A and B. You can’t see inside either box, but you are told that A contains $1,000 and that B either contains $1,000,000 or it’s empty. Your choice is to (i) take box B only or (ii) take both A and B. The catch: God predicted in advance what you would do. If he predicted you would only take B, he put $1,000,000 inside. If he predicted you would take both, he put nothing inside B.

  3. Take what’s in… Take what’s in… + What would you do? B B A

  4. The Argument for B • God is omniscient. • If (1) and you take B only, you will get $1,000,000. • If (1) and you take A and B, you will get $1,000. • If (1)-(3), you should take B only. • [So] You should take B only.

  5. The Argument for B and A • God either (i) put $1,000,000 in box B or (ii) put nothing in box B. • If (i) and you take B only, you’ll get $1,000,000. • If (i) and you take B and A, you’ll get $1,001,000. • [So] If (i), you should take both B and A. • If (ii) and you take B only, you’ll get nothing. • If (ii) and you take B and A, you’ll get $1,000. • [So] If (ii), you should take B and A. • [So] You should take B and A.

  6. Box B = X Boxes A and B = X+ $1,000 The Argument for B and A X X $1,000

  7. One box or two?

  8. The Problem ofDivine Foreknowledge • Since God is omniscient, he knows everything – past, present and future. • If God has foreknowledge, it’s impossible for his “predictions” to be mistaken. • If it’s impossible for God’s predictions to be mistaken, then whatever you do is unavoidable. • Divine Fatalism: All human actions are unavoidable, owing to divine foreknowledge.

  9. The Argument for Divine Fatalism • God knows everything you will do in advance. • If God knows everything you will do in advance, then you can’t perform any other action (that would mean God made a mistake). • If you can’t perform any other action, then whatever you do is unavoidable. • [So] Whatever you do is unavoidable.

  10. The Argument for Divine Fatalism • God knew that you would take one box. • If God knew that you would take one box, then you couldn’t have taken two boxes (or done anything else than take one box). • If you couldn’t have taken two boxes (or done anything else than take one box), then it was unavoidable that you would take one box. • [So] It was unavoidable that you would take one box.

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