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SEDS Transportation Sector Modules

SEDS Transportation Sector Modules. Anant Vyas and Deena Patel Argonne National Laboratory Presented at SEDS Peer Review Washington, DC May 7-8, 2009. Transportation Sector in Context of SEDS. Converted Energy. Primary Energy. Macroeconomics. End-Use. Biomass. Biofuels. Buildings.

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SEDS Transportation Sector Modules

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  1. SEDS Transportation Sector Modules Anant Vyas and Deena Patel Argonne National Laboratory Presented at SEDS Peer Review Washington, DC May 7-8, 2009

  2. Transportation Sector in Context of SEDS Converted Energy Primary Energy Macroeconomics End-Use Biomass Biofuels Buildings Coal Electricity Heavy Transportation Macroeconomics Natural Gas Hydrogen Industry Oil Liquid Fuels Light Vehicles

  3. Major Transportation Components • Light Duty Vehicles • Cars* • Light Trucks* • Heavy Duty Transportation • Highway (Trucks and Buses)* • Aviation • Pipeline • Rail • Water • Farm & Off-highway * Only cars, light trucks, and medium & heavy trucks are evaluated through the Portfolio Decision Support (PDS)

  4. Light Duty Data Flow Incoming Data Outgoing Data Macroeconomics Vehicle Expenditures Macroeconomics GDP, Population 16-84 Hydrogen Hydrogen Demand Natural Gas Hydrogen Hydrogen Price LPG/CNG Demand Natural Gas Light Duty Vehicles Electricity Natural Gas Price Electricity Demand Electricity Bio-Fuels Electricity Price Flex-fuel Demand Liquid Fuels Gasoline & Diesel Demand Liquid Fuels Gasoline, Diesel and Ethanol Prices CO2 Produced

  5. Major Assumptions for Light Duty Vehicles • National estimates (no regional estimates) • Annual vehicle miles and fuel use estimated • Vehicle choice model adapted from EERE/OVT Multi-Path Study • EPA dynamometer test fuel economy estimates degraded by a factor of 0.8 for ICE vehicles and 0.85 for HEV and FCV (can be revised to match the new 5-cycle method) • Energy use by flexible-fuel vehicles estimated for the Liquid Fuels Module to separate as ethanol blended gasoline and E85

  6. Major Components of Light Duty Sector Vehicle Survival Vehicle Technologies • Conventional • Conventional Diesel • Advanced Diesel • Flex-fuel • CNG/LPG • Electric • Charge-Sustaining (CS) HEV • Flex-fuel CS HEV • Diesel CS HEV • Gasoline Plug-in HEV • Flex-fuel PHEV • Diesel PHEV • Hydrogen Fuel Cell PHEV • Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Vehicle Choice: Based on a two-stage multi-nomial logit model ICE EV/HEV Age-Dependent Usage FCV

  7. Decision Flow In Light Duty Module Historical Car and Light Truck Sales by Technology Macroeconomic Data Car and Light Truck VMT, Fuel Use by Fuel Type and CO2 Emissions Future Car and Light Truck Sales Future Light Duty Vehicle Sales Future Car and Light Truck Sales by Technology Car and Light Truck Sales Shares by Technology Fuel Price Vehicle Characteristics by Technology Vehicle Survival and Age Dependent Usage Vehicle Choice Model

  8. Light Duty Data Sources • Vehicle survival and annual usage functions from NHTSA/NCSA report Vehicle Survivability and Travel Mileage Schedules (2006) • Vehicle price and MPG from AEO 2008 and PDS 2010 • Other Vehicle Characteristics adapted from DOE/EERE Multi-path Study • Historical vehicle sales from AAMA and Ward’s Motor Vehicle Facts & Figures (various editions)

  9. Heavy Duty Transportation Data Flow Outgoing Data Incoming Data Macroeconomics Truck Sales Macroeconomics GDP, Population, Income Natural Gas Natural Gas Demand Natural Gas Natural Gas Demand Electricity Electricity Demand Coal Heavy Duty Transportation Coal Demand Bio-Fuels Gasoline, Diesel , Jet Fuel and Residual Fuel Demand Liquid Fuels Gasoline, Diesel and Crude Prices Petroleum Products Demand Liquid Fuels CO2 Produced

  10. Heavy Duty Transportation Modes and Fuels Gasoline (ethanol blend), LPG/CNG, and Diesel (bio-fuel blend) Natural Gas and Electricity Pipelines Medium and Heavy Trucks* Diesel and Electricity Rail Gasoline (ethanol blend), CNG, Diesel (bio-fuel blend), and Electricity Buses Gasoline, Diesel, and Residual Fuel Water Domestic, International, and General Aviation Jet Fuel (can be bio-fuel blend) and Aviation gasoline Gasoline (ethanol blend) and Diesel (bio-fuel blend) Farm & Off-Highway * Only medium and heavy trucks are evaluated through the Portfolio Decision Support

  11. Major Assumptions for Heavy Transportation • National and annual estimates developed • Medium and heavy trucks will continue to use gasoline and diesel fuel • Medium and heavy truck VMT will be sensitive to fuel cost per mile • Buses will rely increasingly on diesel fuel • Aviation will continue to improve its energy intensity (Btu/RPM), but the rate of improvement will decline over time • Rail will improve ton-miles hauled per diesel gallon at a rate slower than the historical

  12. Heavy Transportation Energy Use Estimation Medium & Heavy Trucks Medium & Heavy Truck Sales Truck Survival and Age Dependent Usage Truck VMT and Fuel Use Macroeconomic Data Domestic and International RPM Domestic and International Jet Fuel Demand Domestic and International BTU/RPM Aviation Macroeconomic Data & Crude Cost General Aviation Jet Fuel and Aviation Gasoline Demand Rail Rail Diesel Demand Rail TMT per Diesel Gallon Coal Demand Rail Ton-Miles

  13. Heavy Duty Energy Demand Estimation Pipeline Petroleum Products and Crude Demand Pipeline Electricity Demand Pipeline Natural Gas Demand Natural Gas Demand Water Coal and Distillate Fuel Demand Water Diesel and Residual Fuel Demand Crude Cost Farm & Off-highway Macroeconomic Data Farm & Off-highway gasoline and Diesel Demand Crude Cost

  14. Heavy Transportation Data Sources • Truck sales from AAMA and Ward’s Motor Vehicle Facts & Figures • Truck survival rates from ORNL’s Transportation Energy Data Book • Truck age dependent annual usage from Census Bureau’s Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey • Energy consumption by mode and fuel type from Oak Ridge National Lab’s Transportation Energy Data Book • Aviation data from U.S. DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics and Federal Aviation Administration • Rail ton-miles and fuel use from AAR’s Railroad Facts • Farm & off-highway diesel use from DOE/EIA

  15. SEDS (Deterministic) and AEO 08 Projections

  16. Light Duty Energy DemandReference Scenario 16

  17. Light Duty Energy DemandHigh Oil Scenario – Change from Reference Scenario 17

  18. Light Duty VehiclesVMT and MPG 18

  19. Heavy Duty Energy DemandReference Scenario 19

  20. Heavy Duty Energy DemandHigh Oil Scenario – Change from Reference Scenario 20

  21. Future Work • Complete stochastic versions of both transportation modules • Incorporate stochastic distributions of light vehicle prices and fuel economies • Incorporate stochastic distribution of medium and heavy truck fuel economies • Incorporate stochastic distributions of aviation and rail energy intensities • Investigate and update long-term VMT elasticity for light duty vehicles and medium & heavy trucks • Make light truck share of new LDV sales sensitive to fuel price

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