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Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead Part I. Mr. Mark Welshinger Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology March 6, 2007. Overview. Background Plan Overview Structure of the R&D Plan. Background. Replaces previous OFCM-sponsored plan

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slide1
Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead

Part I

Mr. Mark Welshinger

Office of the Federal Coordinator

for Meteorology

March 6, 2007

overview
Overview
  • Background
  • Plan Overview
  • Structure of the R&D Plan
background
Background
  • Replaces previous OFCM-sponsored plan
    • National Plan for Tropical Cyclone Research (FCM-P25-1997)
  • Impetus for this plan
    • Principal action item, agreed upon by the participants in the 58th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) (March 2004)
    • Meeting of Interdepartmental Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (ICMSSR) (November 2004)
      • Strongly supported action (action item 2004-2.7)
    • Meeting of the Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (FCMSSR) (December 2004)
      • The senior interagency policy decision body advising OFCM, the IHC, and ICMSSR
      • Actions discussed and supported
  • Federal Coordinator formed Joint Action Group for Tropical Cyclone Research (JAG/TCR) (February 2005)
background4
Background

JAG/TCR

background5
Background

JAG/TCR

plan overview
Plan Overview
  • Interagency tropical cyclone plan that encompasses all applicable Federal agencies
  • Grass-roots-up approach to meet the needs of the three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers
    • TPC/NHC, CPHC, and JTWC
  • Needs characterized by seven tropical cyclone-related, day-to-day operational forecast and warning categories
    • Intensity
    • Structure
    • Track
    • Sea state
  • Strategy / recommendations focus on R&D, enhanced coordination / collaboration, transition of research to operations, and increased funding
  • Storm surge
  • Precipitation
  • Observations
structure of the r d plan
Structure of the R&D Plan
  • Chapter 1
    • Makes case for additional improvements
    • Introduces:
      • Three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers: TPC/NHC, CPHC, JTWC
      • R&D community
  • Chapter 2
    • Provides more in-depth review of tropical cyclone community
    • Reviews major previous work from which to build on

Tropical Cyclone Community of Practice

structure of the r d plan8
Structure of the R&D Plan
  • Chapter 3
    • Examines current capability and limitations of Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning system
      • End-to-end review of “system”
        • Includes data collection, data assimilation and NWP modeling, forecasting and warning, transition of research to operations, end user education, training, and outreach)
  • Chapter 4
    • Summarizes the operational needs of the three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers: TPC/NHC, CPHC, JTWC
      • Table 4-1
    • Presents planned capabilities to meet the operational needs
      • End-to-end review
structure of the r d plan9
Structure of the R&D Plan
  • Chapter 5
    • Presents research priorities to aid in meeting the needs of the operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers
  • Chapter 6
    • Key findings
    • Recommendations
    • Estimated increased funding associated with recommendations
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Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead

Part II

Mr. Mark Welshinger

Office of the Federal Coordinator

for Meteorology

March 6, 2007

overview11
Overview
  • Interagency Working Group
  • Estimated Funding to Address Gaps and Priorities
  • Summary
key findings recommendations
Key Findings & Recommendations
  • OFCM-sponsored interagency working group
    • Develop 10-year, multi-agency tropical cyclone research implementation plan
      • Outlines specific strategies to address research priorities
      • Updated annually
    • Strategic plan for improved tropical cyclone reconnaissance and surveillance systems (manned, unmanned, space-based, etc.)
    • Develop a plan to support the tropical cyclone NWP program. The plan should:
      • Include procedures to enhance the flow of relevant research focused on improvements to the operational NWP systems
      • Improve the conduit by which the academic community could be involved (e.g., through JHT, DTC)
summary
Summary
  • Interagency plan:
    • Thoroughly reviews tropical cyclone forecast and warning program
    • Presents comprehensive roadmap of activities to further improve the effectiveness of the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning service during the next decade and beyond
  • Plan is complemented by and consistent in many aspects with two other concurrent hurricane research projects / studies
    • NOAA’s Science Advisory Board (SAB) Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group (HIRWG)
    • National Science Board’s Task Force on Hurricane Science and Engineering (HSE)
slide15
Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead

Web site:

http://www.ofcm.gov/p36-isrtc/fcm-p36.htm

Hard copies coming…at the press….

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