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The Collapse of the Nation’s Labor Market for Teens and Young Adults (20-24): Designing A Set of Workforce Development Strategies to Improve the Immediate and Long-Term Employment Prospects of the Nation’s Youth. Andrew Sum Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University
The Collapse of the Nation’s Labor Market for Teens and Young Adults (20-24): Designing A Set of Workforce Development Strategies to Improve the Immediate and Long-Term Employment Prospects of the Nation’s Youth
Center for Labor Market Studies
An Overview of Key Developments in the Nation’s Teen and Young Adult Labor Markets from 2000 to 2008 and During the Current Economic Recession
Trends in the Employment/Population Ratios of the Nation’s Teens (16-19) Between 2000 and 2009(Annual Averages, Except 2009 Which is January – April)
(1) This employment rate for teens is the lowest ever record in post-World War II history.
Trends in the Employment/Population Ratios of the Nation’s Teens (16-19) During Selected Summers Between 2000 and 2008(June-August Averages, Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Top ten states have an E/P ratio for teens that was twice as high as bottom ten states.
Changes in the Employment Levels of U.S. Adults (16 and Older) All and by Selected Major Age Groups, October-November 2007 to March April 2009 (Seasonally Adjusted, in Millions)
Note: (1) Data for this age group are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPS household survey, web site, tabulations by authors.
Trends in the Employment/Population Ratios of 20-24 Year Old Men in the U.S., Selected Years, 2000-2009(Annual Averages, Except 2009, in %)
*Lowest ever recorded in U.S., history since 1948.
Labor Force Underutilization Rates Among the Nation’s Teens (16-19) by School Enrollment/Educational Level in the January-March Period of 2009 (in %)
Estimating the Impact of Summer WIA Job Creation Programs for Teens and Young Adults on Their Overall Employment/Population Ratio for the Year
∆ E Ratio = Number of youth Number of Net jobs Mean
P 14-24 assigned to * 16-24 Year Old * created per * months in
jobs under the programParticipantsin program program
Eligible youth 100 Total 12
Solving for Change in
the E/P Ratio for all = 400,000 * .95 * .90 * 2
16-24 Years Olds in 38,000,000 12
= .15 percentage points
Annual average E/P ratio
would change from .48.5% to 48.6%, a gain of .1 percentage points
The estimated employment impact could be increased by focusing programs only on 16-21 years old, targetting services most heavily on at-risk youth to maximize net job creation effect, allocating monies to hire job specialists to development unsubsidized jobs for youth, subsidizing jobs for teens in the private for profit sector.
This is only a very modest impact of summer WIA jobs programs on the year-round employment rate of 16-24 year olds. Reasons for the modest impact are the following the: