Projections of the dependent elderly population by age, sex, and household composition
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Projections of the dependent elderly population by age, sex, and household composition Scenarios for Belgium. Anita Abramowska°, Catherine Gourbin°°, and Guillaume Wunsch°° ° Warsaw School of Economics °° University of Louvain (UCL). Objectives.

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Projections of the dependent elderly population by age, sex, and household compositionScenarios for Belgium

Anita Abramowska°, Catherine Gourbin°°, and Guillaume Wunsch°°

° Warsaw School of Economics

°° University of Louvain (UCL)


Objectives
Objectives and household composition

  • Projection of the dependent elderly population 65+ for Belgium

  • By age, sex, and composition of household

  • For the period 2005-2050

  • Taking account of differences in rates of dependency by household type, age, and sex

  • And of possible future declines in these rates


Data and methods
Data and methods and household composition

  • Population projections: those of the Belgian National Institute of Statistics

  • Composition of household:

    • National population register data

    • Data on institutions from Belgian national health insurance (INAMI-RIZIV)

  • Dependency rates and time trends by age, sex and composition of households: French HID survey


  • Table 1. Comparison of the institutionalized population 65+ by age and sex

    according to INAMI-RIZIV (2001) and the Belgian population register (2000)

    (Source: INAMI-RIZIV and Belgian population register)


    Table 2. Comparison of dependency rates (%) in the institutionalized population age and sex according to the French HID survey (EHPA 11-22 scale) and the Belgian INAMI-RIZIV register (Katz scale, B+C) (circa year 2000)

    (Sources: DREES and INAMI-RIZIV)





    Fig 1b adjusted dependency rates by age sex and household type females
    Fig. 1b. type - Males.Adjusted dependency rates by age, sex, and household type - Females


    Trends in dependency rates
    Trends in dependency rates type - Males.

    • French HID central scenario by age and sex: rates shifted every 10 years by -1.3 years for males and -1.4 years for females between ages 60 and 79, and by -1.1 and -1.3 respectively for ages 80+.

    • Same trends whatever the household type


    Fig 2 numbers of dependent elderly 65 by sex scenarios with stable and variable rates belgium
    Fig. 2. Numbers of dependent elderly 65+ by sex, scenarios with stable and variable rates - Belgium


    Fig 3a elderly females 65 by age household type and years 2005 2025 2050 variable rates belgium
    Fig. 3a. Elderly females 65+ by age, household type and years (2005, 2025, 2050), variable rates – Belgium.


    Fig 3b elderly males 65 by age household type and years 2005 2025 2050 variable rates belgium
    Fig. 3b. Elderly males 65+ by age, household type and years (2005, 2025, 2050), variable rates – Belgium.


    Improving the projections
    Improving the projections (2005, 2025, 2050), variable rates – Belgium.

    • A better registration of collective households by the national population register

    • Use of the new 2004 Health Survey dependency rates

    • Obtaining time trends (age, sex, household type)

    • Projecting future composition of households

    • Shifting from prevalence to incidence rates


    Results
    Results (2005, 2025, 2050), variable rates – Belgium.

    • Great differences in dependency rates by household type (HID survey)

    • An increase in the absolute numbers of dependent persons

    • A much slower increase if declining dependency rates but an increase nevertheless

    • A significant increase in the institutionalized population


    Conclusion
    Conclusion (2005, 2025, 2050), variable rates – Belgium.

    • One can expect a significant increase in the absolute numbers of institutionalized population especially at older ages, for males and for females, due to the aging of the population structure on the one hand, and the increase in dependency with age on the other hand.

    • It might happen however that in the future, both the age schedule of dependency and the time-trend in dependency will become more favorable than now. In that case, our projections will hopefully be wrong.


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