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Predicting Academic Performance and Attrition in Undergraduate Students. María Pita Carranza Ángel Centeno Ángela Corengia Laura Llull Belén Mesurado Cecilia Primogerio Francisco Redelico. INTRODUCTION. Improvement of EDUCATIONAL QUALITY.

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slide1

Predicting Academic Performance and

Attrition in Undergraduate Students

María Pita Carranza

Ángel Centeno

Ángela Corengia

Laura Llull

Belén Mesurado

Cecilia Primogerio

Francisco Redelico

slide2

INTRODUCTION

Improvement ofEDUCATIONAL QUALITY

Matter of concern to all Higher Education Institutions

  • DevelopTOOLSto predict to what extent students are capable to:
  • - Reach a good academic performance
  • - Finish their studies successfully
slide3

PURPOSE

Explore the relationship between

ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE

EDUCATIONAL

APTITUDES

(DAT)

ATTRITION

- Accounting / Business Economics

- Social Communication

- Industrial Engineering / Software Engineering

- Law

- Medicine

- Nursing

1530 undergraduate students from8different programmes of a private university in Argentina

slide4

DAT

DIFFERENTIAL APTITUDE TEST

Set of tests that “measure” different

Educational Aptitudes

  • Abstract reasoning
  • Verbal reasoning
  • Speed and accurancy
  • Language / Spelling
  • Numerical ability
  • Space relations
  • Mechanical reasoning

Complete set defines a cognitive profile

for each student

slide5

Why DAT?

(Bennet, Seashore, Wesman, Justo)

Ability to predict the success or future performance in certain activities.

VALIDITY

Tests are consistent, the results obtained are stable, free of casual failures.

RELIABILITY

Tests show low intercorrelation. The measured aptitudes of the different tests differ enough to justify the inclusion of all tests in the series. This is specially satisfactory if it is considered that each test was devised to have its own validity.

INDEPENDENCE

OF MEASURED

APTITUDES

DAT has a high enough reliability and a sufficiently low intercorrelation as to be considered a battery of tests with a good discriminative power.

slide6

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

Review and synthesis of published studies

INTERNATIONAL

ARGENTINA

The results of the standardized test scores are related to students’ academic performance, among other indicators, especially during the first year of the undergraduate courses.

  • Although it is difficult to find studies related to results of standardized tests, institutions share the same concern about the search of indicators:
  • The studies surveyed are related to:
  • - socio-demographical variables
  • - school background
  • - performance in admission process
  • job situation
  • professional insertion expectations
  • - personality, problem-solving and
  • intelligence tests, etc.
slide7

RELEVANCE

  • Provide information to academic advisers.
  • Early detection of students that are potentially
  • vulnerable to suffer academic failure.
  • Provide empiric evidence to theoretical discussion
  • about this subject.
slide8

METHOD

Relationship between

EDUCATIONAL

APTITUDES

DAT

- Abstract reasoning

- Verbal reasoning

- Speed and accurancy

- Language / Spelling

- Numerical ability

- Space relations

- Mechanical reasoning

ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE

GPA

Grade Point Average of the first academic year

ATTRITION

Student drops out studies

slide9

METHOD

SAMPLE

1530first year undergraduate students from of a private university in Argentina

- 8 programmes: Business -Accounting and Business Economics-,

Social Communication, Engineering -Industrial

Engineering, Software Engineering-, Law,

Medicine and Nursing.

- Age: 17 to 20 years old

- Socio-economic level: medium to medium-high sectors

- Enrolled in 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005

slide10

METHOD

1. Exploratory analysisof data.

2. General linear model: educational aptitudes related to students’ academic performance.

3. Multiple regressions: relationship of each educational aptitude with academic performance.

4. Generalized linear model: relationship between

educational aptitudes and attrition.

slide11

RESULTS

Regression Model for each Course

Source: Made by the authors

slide12

RESULTS

Odds Ratio and Grade of significance

Source: Made by the authors

slide13

CONCLUSION

  • DAT scores:
  • Allows estimating students’ academic performance in
  • the first year of undergraduate programs.
  • Predict moderately chances of attrition in some
  • programmes -Business, Engineering, Law and Social
  • Communication-, whereas in others -Nursing and
  • Medicine- its prediction capacity is not significantly, in
  • the statistical meaning.
slide14

CONCLUSION

age

socio-cultural background

economic background

Population enrolled uniform in

Measure the impact of other variables -motivation, satisfaction, stress- in order to complement this study with other factors that can influence both academic performance and retention.

DATscores obtained have allowed designing personalized strategies of mentoring in order to promote good academic performance and to increase retention rates.

slide15

Predicting Academic Performance and Attrition

in Undergraduate Students

THANK YOU!!!

mpita@austral.edu.ar