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The Challenges of Country Monitoring & Evaluation Governing For Results in China. October 25, 2006. Harry P. Hatry The Urban Institute Washington, DC, USA. The Range of Evaluation Approaches. 1. Continuous Performance Monitoring 2. Quick Response Assessments

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slide1

The Challenges of

Country Monitoring & Evaluation

Governing For Results in China

October 25, 2006

Harry P. Hatry

The Urban Institute

Washington, DC, USA

slide2

The Range of Evaluation Approaches

1. Continuous Performance Monitoring

2. Quick Response Assessments

3. In-depth Implementation Evaluations With Early-Outcomes

4. Statistically-Identified Comparison Groups

5. Randomly Assigned “Experimental” and “Control” Groups

slide3

In-Depth Evaluations

Performance Monitoring

Cost

High

Considerably Lower

Coverage

Very limited-few programs

Wide-most programs

Timeliness

Poor for management

Good, depending on frequency of reporting

Validity of Information

Much better for identifying causes and problems

Very limited for identifying causes

Pros and Cons of In-depth Evaluations versus Regular Performance Monitoring

slide4

Overall Relation of Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) to Planning, Budgeting, and Operations

  • M&E provide information about the past.
  • Planning, budgeting, and operating management are primarily about the future!
  • The M&E process provides past data for planning, budgeting, and operating management – to help estimate future results likely from budgeted resources.
  • When in-depth evaluation information is available, it usually provides better information than data from the agency’s performance measurement process.
slide5

Relation of Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) to Planning

  • The five-year planning process should include, and focus on Key Performance Indicators –relating to the Development Goals.
  • Plans should include targets, preferably annual targets for each indicator.
  • The M&E process should provide annual data on these indicators.
  • Investment strategies should be modified based on annual findings from monitoring performance .
  • Targets should be based, in part, on past time trends identified by the M&E process.
  • Progress should be reviewed, annually using data from the M&E process.
slide6

Relation of Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) to Budgeting

  • Agencies should include Key Performance Indicators in capital and operating budget requests.
  • Budgets should include data on one or more past years’ performance and targets for each performance indicator.
  • The targets should be based on recent time trends identified from the M&E process.
  • Analysts should examine the targets against the resources requested in the budget request for reasonableness.
  • Capital and Operating budget strategies should be modified based on the findings.
slide7

Relation of Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) to Operating Agencies

  • Each agency needs to establish its own M&E process and provide data on needed performance indicators -- including Key Performance Indicators in the five-year plan and those wanted by the MOF Budget Office.
  • The M&E process should provide timely data for agency managers.
  • Agency managers should revise service delivery based on M&E findings.
  • Agency managers should use M&E data to help prepare their operating and capital budget requests.
  • Agency managers should include outcome targets in budget requests -- based on M&E data.
slide8

Basic Performance Data Needs for M&E

Inputs:Funds and Staffing used

Outputs: Work completed, such as people served; inspections made

Outcomes: Effects on citizens or businesses, such as unemployment or pollution

  • Intermediate Outcomes, such as unemployed persons satisfactorily completing an employment-training program
  • End Outcomes, such as number of unemployed persons completing an employment- training program and who became employed

Efficiency: Cost per unit of product

  • Cost Per Unit of Output, such as cost per kilometer of road rehabilitated
  • Cost Per Unit of Outcome, such as cost per kilometer of road in satisfactory condition
slide9

IntermediateOutcomes

End Outcomes

Timing

Occur early and before end outcomes

Occur after intermediate outcomes

Extent of Agency Influence

Usually considerable

Many outside factors can affect them

Ease of Estimating Values (past or future)

Relatively easy

Some end outcomes require new data collection procedures

Importance to Citizens

Usually considerably less

Very important to them

Include and Track Both “Intermediate” Outcomes and “End” Outcomes Comparison table:

slide10

Use “Results Chains” (“Outcome Sequence Charts” or “Logic Models.”)

To Help Identify Intermediate

and End Outcomes

and

To Help Communicate What Programs and Services are Intended to Do

slide11

Output

-

Outcome Sequence Chart

Venezuela Project for Water and Sanitation in Urban and Rural Zones

Intermediate

End

Outputs

Outcomes

Outcomes

Comp. 1.

Institutional

More pe

ople have

Water supply systems

Strengthening

rehabilitated /

access to piped

Urban

Comp. 2.

water supply

expanded

Water Supply

/

services

Sanitation

Increased

Improved

Infrastructure

Access to

Citizen

Comp. 3.

Rural

Potable

Health

Water Supply /

Water

Sanitation

Infrastructure

with Com

munity

Participation

Comp. 4.

Operational &

Fewer and

Improved

Commercial

shorter

capability of utility

Efficiency

interruptions in

operating

Comp. 5.

supply

personnel

Project

Management

slide13

Small and Medium Business SupportService Outcome Sequence Chart

They Request

and Receive

Substantial

Assistance

They Take

Action Based

on Assistance

More

Earnings

Existing Business

Seek Help

Training

and

Technical

Assistance

are

Provided

Persons

Seek Help to

Start a Business

They Request

and Receive

Substantial

Assistance

They Take

Action to Start

a Business

The Business

is Reasonably

Successful

The Business

is Started

Jobs Created,

Especially for

Low Income

Households

Improved

Quality

of Life

Reduced

Poverty

Jobs Created,

Especially for

Low Income

Households

slide14

Coordinate Cross-Cutting Programs

  • Prepare table showing which agencies, which organizations contribute to each outcome indicator. For example:

Outcome Indicator

#59. Reduction of main pollutants

Contributing Organizations

EPA, MWR, MOH, MWR, MOA

  • Arrange for communication, coordination, and cooperative efforts.
  • Establish “Performance Partnerships.”

Examples: U.S. EPA partnerships with state governments.

U.S. Office of National Drug Control Policy

slide15

Key Performance Partnerships Elements

  • Include all relevant organizations (including other ministries and local government agencies).
  • Identify outcomes sought and outcome indicators to track progress.
  • Establish out-year targets.
  • Decide who needs to do what, by when, and with what funding to accomplish those targets.
  • Decide who needs to do what, and how frequently to track and report progress on those outcome indicators.
  • Track progress.
  • Make adjustments.
slide16

Analyzing Outcome Information -- I

  • Make basic comparisons. Compare latest outcomes:
  •  To past performance.
  • To targets
  • Across geographical areas (such as different regions, counties, or cities).
  • Among customer groups with other demographic characteristics (such as age, gender, and income groups)
  • Among organization units providing similar services (such as different facilities, offices, parks, hospitals, schools).
  • To different service approaches.
  • To those of other countries.
slide17

Analyzing Outcome Information -- II

  • For performance indicators where agencies have not met their targets, require them to provide meaningful explanations.
  • Example: Some state governments in United States require agencies to provide explanations if the latest indicator values are not within 5% of the target.
slide18

Major Recommendations-I

  • Use evaluation (outcome) information both in developing capital investments and operating programs.
  • Include in multi-year strategic plans key outcome indicators and time-phased targets for each.
  • Have a good cost accounting system so you can link expenditures for each significant program to the outcomes.
  • Ask each Ministry to establish its own M&E process.
  • Ask Ministries to group their performance indicators into: outputs; intermediate outcomes; and end outcomes.
slide19

Major Recommendations-II

  • Ask each Ministry and agency to provide a “Results Chain” for each program.
  • Prepare annual evaluation agendas. Plan evaluations so the findings become available when decisions are expected to be needed.
  • Provide technical assistance and training in using M&E for managers and professional staffs in planning, budgeting, and operating agencies.
  • Assist local governments in performance measurement.
  • Establish performance partnerships across agencies and governments.