Reason

1. Reason The Most Important Element of Biostatistics Public Health The Most Important Element

2. Reason Reason, not numerical manipulations, is the most IMPORTANT element of biostatistic If nonsense goes into a statistical analysis, nonsense will come out. The nonsensical output will have all the statistical trappings, will look just as official, just as "scientific," and just as "objective" as a substantively useful analysis'. It is, however, the substance and not the form that is the important thing. The Most Important Element

3. Epistemological Modesty Epistemological modesty ≡ the understanding that beliefs are susceptible to error that we must therefore be modest about what we believe The Most Important Element

4. Truth Versus Perception I cannot give any scientist of any age any better advice than this: The intensity of the conviction that a hypothesis is true has no bearing on whether it is true or not. Peter Medawar 1915-1987 Plato’s Allegory of the Cave. We observe merely shadows on the cave wall. But what is really out there? The Most Important Element

5. Rules of Sociologic MethodDurkheim, 1895 Durkheim differentiated between notiones vulgares (crudely formed popular notions of natural and social phenomena) and true social science. Emile Durkheim (1858-1917) (c) B. Gerstman 2007 Chapter 9 5

6. Science Without Sense Flawed research: • Costs billions • Provides pseudo-knowledge • Results in lost credibility • Causes unnecessary disease, disability, and death The Most Important Element

7. Which do you choose? Frankfurt, H. G. (2005). Princeton University Press Blackburn, S. (2005). Oxford Univ. Press BS manipulates beliefs toward a desired outcome. Truth bends over backwards to understand alternatives. The Most Important Element

8. The Most Important Element