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The 2016 Economy Looks Like 2015

William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville November 17, 2015. The 2016 Economy Looks Like 2015. DILBERT. by SCOTT ADAMS. Some Known Potential Shocks. China, and worldwide slowdown Southern Europe and debt crisis Oil Prices

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The 2016 Economy Looks Like 2015

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  1. William F. Fox, DirectorCenter for Business and Economic ResearchThe University of Tennessee, KnoxvilleNovember 17, 2015 The 2016 Economy Looks Like 2015

  2. DILBERT by SCOTT ADAMS William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  3. Some Known Potential Shocks • China, and worldwide slowdown • Southern Europe and debt crisis • Oil Prices • Fed Rate Hike William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  4. Growth in Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product (Chained 2009 Dollars) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  5. Growth in Quarterly Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (Chained 2009 Dollars) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  6. U.S. Regular Gasoline Prices William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  7. Estimated Total E-Commerce Sales *Sales-taxing states only. William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  8. Total Consumer Debt Balance William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  9. Household Savings Rate William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  10. Unit Sales of New Light Vehicles William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  11. Unit Sales of Existing Homes and Housing Starts William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  12. * All Housing Units, 2000-2014 William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  13. Growth in Quarterly Real Business Investment William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  14. Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  15. Unified Federal Budget Surplus William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  16. AnnualDeficits, 2002 to 2025 William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  17. Real Exports Less Imports William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  18. U.S. Crude Oil Imports and Production, 1998–2014 William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  19. Interest Rates and Inflation William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  20. Tennessee Nonfarm Jobs, Seasonally Adjusted, 2004–2015 William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  21. Tennessee & U.S. Unemployment Rates(Seasonally Adjusted) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  22. Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector(September 2015 as a Share of December 2007) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  23. Nonfarm Employment Growth, MSAs (Quarter Ending September 2014 to September 2015) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  24. Total State Budget, FY2015-16Where Your State Tax Dollar Goes William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  25. State & Local Tax Revenue as a Percentage of Personal Income, 2012 U.S. =10.5% Tennessee = 8.4% Less than 8.4% (1) 8.4% to 10.5% (33) Greater than 10.5% (16) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  26. Tennessee Tax Revenues, Total and Share of Personal Income William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  27. Growth in Sales Tax Revenue3-Month Moving Average, Year-Over-Year Increase William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  28. Sales Tax Collections by Category of Sales (Quarter Ending July 2014 to July 2015) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  29. Tennessee State Sales Tax Breadth of Base Source: State Tax Notes, Mikesell. William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  30. Rainy Day Fund by Fiscal Year William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  31. Tax Cuts • Gift tax • Inheritance tax • Lower rate for food • Larger exemption for the Hall Income Tax William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  32. William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  33. Higher Education Allocation, University of Tennessee *Estimated **Recommended William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  34. Higher Education Allocation, Board of Regents *Estimated **Recommended William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  35. Growth in Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product (chained 2009 dollars) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  36. Growth in Quarterly Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (chained 2009 dollars) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  37. Growth in Quarterly Real Private Residential Fixed Investment and Housing Starts William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  38. Unit Sales of New Light Vehicles and Housing Starts William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  39. U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate and Real Exports Less Imports William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  40. Unified Federal Budget Surplus William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  41. Interest Rates and Inflation William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  42. Tennessee and U.S. Nonfarm Job Growth (year-over-year growth) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  43. Tennessee Monthly Nonfarm Jobs,2004–2015 (seasonally adjusted) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  44. Tennessee Employment Distribution by Industry, 2014 William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  45. Tennessee and U.S. Unemployment Rate(seasonally adjusted) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  46. Tennessee Job Growth by Sector(Quarter Ending Sept. 2014 to Sept. 2015) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  47. Nonfarm Employment Growth, MSAs (Quarter Ending Sept. 2014 to Sept. 2015) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  48. Change in Total Taxes, January–March, 2014 to 2015 U.S.: 5.8% Tennessee: 9.3% Less than 5.8% (29) 5.8% to 9.3% (11) Greater than 9.3% (10) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  49. Change in Sales Taxes, January–March, 2014 to 2015 U.S.: 5.2% Tennessee: 4.4% Less than 4.4% (19) 4.4% to 5.2% (11) Greater than 5.2% (15) n.a. (5) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  50. Change in Corporate Income Taxes, January–March, 2014 to 2015 U.S.: 3.3% Tennessee: 65.8% Less than 3.3% (19) 3.3% to 65.8% (25) Greater than 65.8% (2) n.a. (4) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

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