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The 2016 Economy Looks Like 2015

Gain valuable insights into the 2016 economy compared to 2015 trends. Explore potential market shocks, growth indicators, gas prices, e-commerce sales, and more. Detailed analysis from William F. Fox, Director at the Center for Business and Economic Research. Stay informed for informed decision-making.

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The 2016 Economy Looks Like 2015

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  1. William F. Fox, DirectorCenter for Business and Economic ResearchThe University of Tennessee, KnoxvilleNovember 17, 2015 The 2016 Economy Looks Like 2015

  2. DILBERT by SCOTT ADAMS William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  3. Some Known Potential Shocks • China, and worldwide slowdown • Southern Europe and debt crisis • Oil Prices • Fed Rate Hike William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  4. Growth in Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product (Chained 2009 Dollars) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  5. Growth in Quarterly Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (Chained 2009 Dollars) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  6. U.S. Regular Gasoline Prices William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  7. Estimated Total E-Commerce Sales *Sales-taxing states only. William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  8. Total Consumer Debt Balance William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  9. Household Savings Rate William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  10. Unit Sales of New Light Vehicles William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  11. Unit Sales of Existing Homes and Housing Starts William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  12. * All Housing Units, 2000-2014 William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  13. Growth in Quarterly Real Business Investment William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  14. Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  15. Unified Federal Budget Surplus William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  16. AnnualDeficits, 2002 to 2025 William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  17. Real Exports Less Imports William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  18. U.S. Crude Oil Imports and Production, 1998–2014 William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  19. Interest Rates and Inflation William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  20. Tennessee Nonfarm Jobs, Seasonally Adjusted, 2004–2015 William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  21. Tennessee & U.S. Unemployment Rates(Seasonally Adjusted) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  22. Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector(September 2015 as a Share of December 2007) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  23. Nonfarm Employment Growth, MSAs (Quarter Ending September 2014 to September 2015) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  24. Total State Budget, FY2015-16Where Your State Tax Dollar Goes William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  25. State & Local Tax Revenue as a Percentage of Personal Income, 2012 U.S. =10.5% Tennessee = 8.4% Less than 8.4% (1) 8.4% to 10.5% (33) Greater than 10.5% (16) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  26. Tennessee Tax Revenues, Total and Share of Personal Income William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  27. Growth in Sales Tax Revenue3-Month Moving Average, Year-Over-Year Increase William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  28. Sales Tax Collections by Category of Sales (Quarter Ending July 2014 to July 2015) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  29. Tennessee State Sales Tax Breadth of Base Source: State Tax Notes, Mikesell. William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  30. Rainy Day Fund by Fiscal Year William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  31. Tax Cuts • Gift tax • Inheritance tax • Lower rate for food • Larger exemption for the Hall Income Tax William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  32. William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  33. Higher Education Allocation, University of Tennessee *Estimated **Recommended William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  34. Higher Education Allocation, Board of Regents *Estimated **Recommended William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  35. Growth in Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product (chained 2009 dollars) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  36. Growth in Quarterly Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (chained 2009 dollars) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  37. Growth in Quarterly Real Private Residential Fixed Investment and Housing Starts William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  38. Unit Sales of New Light Vehicles and Housing Starts William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  39. U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate and Real Exports Less Imports William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  40. Unified Federal Budget Surplus William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  41. Interest Rates and Inflation William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  42. Tennessee and U.S. Nonfarm Job Growth (year-over-year growth) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  43. Tennessee Monthly Nonfarm Jobs,2004–2015 (seasonally adjusted) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  44. Tennessee Employment Distribution by Industry, 2014 William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  45. Tennessee and U.S. Unemployment Rate(seasonally adjusted) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  46. Tennessee Job Growth by Sector(Quarter Ending Sept. 2014 to Sept. 2015) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  47. Nonfarm Employment Growth, MSAs (Quarter Ending Sept. 2014 to Sept. 2015) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  48. Change in Total Taxes, January–March, 2014 to 2015 U.S.: 5.8% Tennessee: 9.3% Less than 5.8% (29) 5.8% to 9.3% (11) Greater than 9.3% (10) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  49. Change in Sales Taxes, January–March, 2014 to 2015 U.S.: 5.2% Tennessee: 4.4% Less than 4.4% (19) 4.4% to 5.2% (11) Greater than 5.2% (15) n.a. (5) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

  50. Change in Corporate Income Taxes, January–March, 2014 to 2015 U.S.: 3.3% Tennessee: 65.8% Less than 3.3% (19) 3.3% to 65.8% (25) Greater than 65.8% (2) n.a. (4) William F. Fox • Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.haslam.utk.edu

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