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Generation Adequacy Task Force Update to WMS. October 21, 2009. Meeting Dates - Charter. GATF has met twice: September 22 and October 13, 2009 Next two meetings set for November 3 rd and December 1 st . Agreed on GATF Charter:
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Generation Adequacy Task Force Update to WMS October 21, 2009
Meeting Dates - Charter • GATF has met twice: September 22 and October 13, 2009 • Next two meetings set for November 3rd and December 1st. • Agreed on GATF Charter: • Re-examine the reserve margin calculation and submit a final report to TAC by the January 2010 meeting with recommendations on making the calculations more accurate using the current and anticipated mix of the various technologies available in the region.
Goals Developed • Developed a set of goals at the first meeting: • Review all the findings and recommendations from the previous GATF reports dated May 23, 2005 and March 7, 2007. • Definition of Firm Load • Definitions for Available Resources (summer dependable capability, DC ties, switchables, wind, planned generation with SGIA or letter, mothballs, demand side, retirements, etc.) • CDR Review – does the format need to be modified? • Recommendation for EILS • Recommendations for new technologies (solar, storage, etc.) • Recommendation for new LOLP (target reserve margin) study (GATF input into assumptions, data sources, results, etc.). • Complete a draft report by the December 2009 WMS meeting that provides ERCOT planning with recommendations on all the assumptions to use in the target reserve (LOLP) study and subsequent reserve margin calculations. • Complete a final report for consideration and vote at the January 2010 TAC meeting
Synopsis of Discussions and Issues • CDR: GATF intends to review the report’s contents and modify if necessary. • Is 5 year horizon adequate? • Does it need high and low forecasts? • Flow diagram of processes • Why is county data needed? • Training session on LOLP Study (Target Reserve Margin) • Last one completed in early 2007. • ERCOT intends to complete an updated study in early 2010.
7 Issues Raised for LOLP Study • The GATF developed a set of 7 issues concerning the target reserve margin study to be discussed further at the November 3rd meeting. • What will be the source of information for generation forced outage rate assumptions? • What years will be studied? • Will transmission topology be modeled? If so, to what level of detail? • What assumptions will be used for scheduled maintenance of resources? • What type of generation technology should be utilized when estimating the effective load carrying capability (ELCC) of wind resources? • What resource technology types should be added to the study when determining reserve margins? • What modifications, if any, should be made to the model’s input assumptions regarding wind resources? Should wind be modeled with different ELCCs based on their geographic location (west, coastal, etc.)? What assumptions should be made for other renewable technologies (solar, biomass, etc.)?
Load Discussion • ERCOT staff provided an update to the GATF concerning the inputs used in their long term hourly peak and demand forecast: • EILS was discussed. • Some believed it should not be counted as a resource. Others believed it should? • After a lengthy discussion, a “majority” of GATF members recommended that EILS be included as a resource. • WMS input? • ERCOT staff will propose a calculation methodology at the next GATF meeting to determine the magnitude of EILS to include in the CDR.
