ADVANCED KNOWLEDGE IS POWER

1. ADVANCED KNOWLEDGE IS POWER • Protect Life and Property • Promote Economic Vitality • Environmental Stewardship • Promote Fundamental Understanding

2. Science in Service to Society Arguments for a major transition

3. The transition is a product of (a) significant improvements in capability and (b) demonstrated importance of the information for decision- makers

4. Elements in the transition: An expansion of the forecasting family • As a result of specific needs • Air quality, lightning, energy demand; uv, severe weather evacuations, agriculture, etc.

5. Elements in the transition: An expansion in the time scales of interest • Instrumented and pre-instrumented records • Weather forecasts • Seasonal-to interannual outlooks • Long-term climate change

6. The Future: Environmental “Intel” Center(s)

7. Addressing Societal Needs • Integrated Observation Systems • Data management and access • High Resolution coupled models • Human Dimensions

8. Some Steps in the Transition • Promoting the transition from research to operations • Adding “Service” to “Climate” • Focus on Communication

9. Transition from Research to Operations

10. How Effective is our Transition Process? • A strong research program • A healthy infrastructure for transition • A strong interface with the user community • International observation and data access partnerships • Continuous evaluation processes

11. Climate Services

12. Evidence for a Growing DemandSome examples: • The Evolution of Hurricane Risk • Application of ENSO Forecasts • Weather Derivatives • IPCC; National Assessments

13. Some Guiding Principles • The Activities and Elements of a “Service” must be User-Centric • Recognize evolving needs and capabilities • Promote vigorous and comprehensive intersection between knowledge and its use • Support through active research • Evaluate and assess use and effectiveness continuously

14. Guiding Principles (continued) • Scope of the knowledge base must be retrospective and predictive • Continuous, reliable, accurate historical base • Access to climate observations (includes paleo) • Forecasts and outlooks, month to a year out • Causes and character of natural variability • Long-term climate simulations

15. Guiding Principles (continued) • An adequate climate services knowledge base requires active stewardship • Open and free exchange of data • Ten basic principles of climate monitoring • Multipurpose observations (in situ and satellite) • Synergism observations and models • Robust and easily accessible delivery system • National modeling and analysis capability • Dedicated computational capability

16. Guiding Principles (continued) • Active and Defined Participation of Governments, Business, and Academia • Government – public goods and services; protection of life and property • Business – motivated by market forces/client interests • Academia – education and research/ interface with government and business

17. Key First Steps Toward a More Effective Climate Service • All agencies should ID climate-related observing systems, purpose, management, decision-makers • User-oriented experiments (free data access) • Develop regional; place-based “laboratories” • Seek out opportunities to combine efforts to serve multiple purposes • Create incentives – incentive for 10 principles and open exchange – support growth in capability designed by states or regions – success of the Oklahoma mesonet • Education initiatives

18. Communication as an Integral Element

19. Communicating uncertainty should be an integral part of providing information • Uncertainty is key to decision-making • State why information is uncertain, not just the fact that it is uncertain • State why information about uncertainty is important • Use multiple measures of uncertainty • Use multiple communication mechanisms

20. Communicating uncertainty and context shifts the burden and responsibility appropriately to the decision-maker • Add context • Communicate what you know as fully as possible, rather than only what you think the decision-maker needs to know

21. Communication and dissemination of information should be an integral part of the process, not be an afterthought • Invest effort from the outset • Education should be a goal • Use multiple modes

22. Communication between information providers and users should not be a one-way street – two-way communication and feedback is essential

23. Success/failure/portrayal of forecasts determine the credibility of future forecasts • Expect mis-interpretation – correct errors quickly • Avoid over-selling forecasts or science • Follow-up successful and failed forecasts with information

24. Diverse and different forecasts from multiple sources have both great value and have the potential to create confusion • Multiple forecasts drive improvement • Use combined sources in providing information (e.g. web page) • Label “official” and “research” forecasts to limit confusion

25. The Equivalent of an “Environmental Situation Room” or “Intel Center” Foundation - Atmospheric Sciences Promote transition from research to operations Expand the forecasting family (Climate Service) Focus on Communication Create Regional integrated enterprises