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First Meeting November 20 2008

Intense Attribution Period (IAP) November 2008 - April 2009. Vision: Provide ongoing explanations of evolving climate conditions at global and regional scales, communicate that information to decision-makers & stakeholders in a responsive manner .

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First Meeting November 20 2008

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  1. Intense Attribution Period (IAP) November 2008 - April 2009 Vision:Provide ongoing explanations of evolving climate conditions at global and regional scales, communicate that information to decision-makers & stakeholders in a responsive manner. Goal:Assess and develop capacities to conduct timely climate attribution aimed at creating climate information that supports decision makers in managing resources and creating more reliable climate predictions. Strategy: Use empirical and numerical tools to explain the impact of the current forcings of climate (e.g., SST forcings of the atmosphere, GHG forcing of the coupled system), place into context of evolving climate, and assess causes for climate forecast success/failure. First Meeting November 20 2008

  2. Outline for Today’s Call CSI Opportunities for FY09 ° ESRL/Marty Hoerling Lead 2008 Climate Conditions ° NCDC/Richard Heim Lead World Oceans: 2008 and Trends ° CPC/Yan Xue Lead Attributal Cause(s) for SST Conditions ° GFDL/Tom Knutson Lead NOAA Seasonal Forecast ° CPC/Arun Kumar Lead

  3. i) Attribution of State of Global Oceans, and Impacts

  4. Global Oceans Drive Global Land Temperatures from Hoerling et al. 2008 GRL, in press

  5. What is the Ocean’s Low Frequency State, and its Causes?

  6. ii) Drought: Its Causes and Predictability

  7. iii) Attribution at Regional Scales/Extremes

  8. New Tools for Attribution: Regional Climate Models WRF at 12km resolution: Dr. Chris Anderson Simulations for April-June 2008 OBS Rainfall WRF 12km Simulated Rainfall

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