1 / 29

WG5-Report from Switzerland: Verification of aLMo in the year 2005

This report discusses the verification of aLMo surface weather parameters using SYNOP stations and ANETZ data. It includes the verification results for total cloud cover and precipitation, as well as the impact of hourly IFS-boundary conditions on geopotential. The report also covers the verification of weather regimes using upper-air data and the comparison of aLMo and radar precipitation data.

ccotton
Download Presentation

WG5-Report from Switzerland: Verification of aLMo in the year 2005

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. WG5-Report from Switzerland:Verification of aLMo in the year 2005 Francis Schubiger, Pirmin Kaufmann, Guy de Morsier, André Walser, Emanuele Zala, Dominique Ruffieux MeteoSwiss

  2. WP 5.1.1 and WP 5.1.7 • verification of aLMo surface weather parameters with SYNOP stations (every 6h) and with ANETZ (every 1h) • operational, ongoing as in 2004 • results sent to the COSMO website francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  3. Total Cloud Cover: Frequency Bias (Threshold 30%) • Summer: Occurrence of 30% (2.5 octa) or more cloud cover usually underestimated in Mediterranean region • Winter: Generally good agreement Summer (2005) Winter (2004/5) francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  4. Total Cloud Cover: Frequency Bias (Threshold 80%) • Summer • Occurrence of 80% (6.5 octa) or more cloud cover usually overestimated in Mediterranean region • Underestimation over northwest and central Continent • Summer 2003 • Exceptional (heat wave) • Strong overestimation, especially over southern Europe Summer (2005) Summer 2003 francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  5. Total Cloud Cover: Frequency Bias (Threshold 80%) • Winter • Generally good agreement (except boundary effects) • Overestimation south of Alps • Winter 2003/4 • No overestimation south of Alps Winter (2004/5) Winter 2003/4 francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  6. Precipitation: Frequency Bias (Thr. 0.1 mm/12h) • Summer • Occurrence of 0.1 mm/12h or more precipitation overestimated, especially over southern Europe • Winter: • General overestimation, strongly increasing with terrain height Summer (2005) Winter (2004/5) francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  7. Precipitation: False Alarm Rate (Thr. 0.1 mm/12h) • Typical Winter (shown: 2004/5) • False Alarm Rate is very high (> 50% at many sites) • Extremely high where frequency of occurrence is low. False Alarm R. francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 Obs. Freq.

  8. ANETZ LM aLMo francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  9. francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  10. daily cycle summer 2005 gridpoints > 1500m over CH aLMo LM ANETZ francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  11. WP 5.1.6 and WP 5.1.8 • exchange of LM maps on the COSMO website: • ongoing as in 2004: • LM, aLMo, LAMI and Euro-LM plots can be viewed on an operational basis (daily update of the plots) on COSMO mirror website • LME maps starting end of September 2005 • verification of on higher resolution with aLMo/2.2 • not yet started (planned for autumn 05) francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  12. WP 5.2.2 and WP 5.2.6 • Verification of the vertical profiles at TEMP stations • operational, ongoing as in 2004 • results sent to the COSMO website francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  13. Temperature verification TEMPs Winter 2004/2005 francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  14. Hourly IFS-boundary conditions:Impact on geopotential Summer 2004 (58 forecasts) francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 All TEMPs stations in aLMo domain

  15. Hourly IFS-boundary conditions:Impact on geopotential January 2005 (31 forecasts) francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 6 TEMPs stations west of the Alps

  16. Re-analysis (a posteriori)centre of low: 960 hPa Verification results BC testchain • Storm Erwin,January 8, 2005, 12 UTC +36h forecast:centre of low: 972 hPa 1h LBC: 971 hPa francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  17. WP 5.3.3, 5.4.1, 5.4.2 • Weather regime verification with upper-air data: • updated 1.12.03 – 28.02.05 • Daily verification of aLMo cloudiness with METEOSAT VIS channel • ongoing as in 2004 • Verification of aLMo precipitation forecast using radar composite network • updated for the climatological year 2004 with a new weather type classification francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  18. Climatology 2004 aLMo precipitation sum (00 runs 6-30h) francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  19. Climatology 2004 radar precipitation sum (without corrections) francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  20. Climatology 2004 difference aLMo - radar francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  21. Alpine Weather Statistics francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  22. ele classification S francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  23. ele classification NW francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  24. WP 5.4.3, WP 5.5.1 and WP 5.6.2 • Verification of aLMo integrated water vapor content with GPS data • ongoing as in 2004 • Validation of near-surface boundary layer processes • ongoing as in 2004 • extension for verification on a daily basis with windprofiler at Payerne • Verification of new schemes for WG1-WG3 • Preliminary exercise for WG3/5 workshop in Langen (09.03.05) completed. No new developments since then. francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  25. Verification with windprofiler and TEMPs • focused on Payerne • operational • automatic • products delivered on intranet • comparison with aLMo 0, -12, -24, -36, -48 hours francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  26. Three types of plots available: • comparison between profiles at given day • statistics for a given period of time • time series of monthly averages for a given year and a given altitude francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  27. Verification with windprofiler and TEMPs : an example (a) comparison between profiles at given day (13 August 2005 00 UTC) francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 wind speed wind direction

  28. (b) statistics for a given period of time francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  29. (c) time series of monthly averages for a given year and a given altitude francis.schubiger@MeteoSwiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

More Related