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Enhanced Hydrometeorological Forecasting for Natural Hazard Prevention

The .AMPHORE. project aims to improve meteo-hydrological forecast methodologies for natural hazard prevention, focusing on severe precipitation and flood events. Partners collaborate to experiment with ensembles for high-resolution precipitation forecasts over specified areas. The initiative includes testing in various regions and featuring different meteorological models for evaluations and advancements in forecast accuracy. Moreover, the Spring School on Mediterranean storms offers a comprehensive course to enhance knowledge and skills in dealing with flash floods and related meteorological phenomena.

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Enhanced Hydrometeorological Forecasting for Natural Hazard Prevention

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  1. AMPHORE - Interreg III B Medocc • Application des Méthodologies de Prévisions Hydrométéorologiques • Orientées aux Risques Environnementales • Leader: ARPA Piemonte • Start date of the project: JULY 1st 2004 • Duration: 27 months • Partners: ARPA Piemonte (I), ARPA-SIM Bologna (I), ARPA Liguria (I), CIMA (I), Regione Calabria (I), Department of Civil Protection (I), MeteoFrance (F), University J. Fourier - Grenoble (F), University of Barcelona (E), University of Balearic Islands (E) • Overall objective: • Improvement of meteo-hydrological forecast for the prevention of natural hazards, in particular for sever precipitation and flood events • Experimentation of new techniques, based on ensembles, for the high resolution forecast of precipitation over defined zones

  2. Test Cases (super-ensemble): • Cambrils (Spain), 6 September 2004 • Calabria (Italy), 12 November 2004 • Gard (France), 2 November 2004 • Piedmont (Italy), 15 September 2004 • Test Cases (poor-man ensemble): • Piedmont (Italy), 25 November 2002 • Reno-Emilia Romagna (Italy), 7 November 2003 • Montserrat (Spain), 9 June 2000 • Gard (France), 8 September 2002 • Meteorological models involved: • ECMWF 0.5° (00 UTC and 12 UTC) • ALADIN (France), 7 km • BOLAM (Italy), 21 km • COSMO LEPS (Italy), 10 km • MM5 (Spain), 7 km

  3. Aladin 00 Bolam 00 ECMWF 00 ECMWF 12 COSMO LEPS 12 MM5 00 POOR-MAN SUPER-ENSEMBLE PIEDMONT 15 September 2004: +24/+48 Forecast

  4. GARD - November 2004

  5. Spring School on Mediterranean storms driven flash flood 14-19 May 2006 Montpezat en Provence, France • Objectives • One week courses dedicated to thesis students, scientist and engineers from Universities, research institutes and operational services. • High level international course on the meteo-hydrological features of the Mediterranean storms related to flash floods. Designed as a multidisciplinary course with a wide diversity of scientific matter and methods. • Excellent opportunity for the participants to broaden their scientific horizon and to improve their knowledge of flood risk management. • General multidisciplinary courses • Convection, Climatology of Mediterranean storms, Synoptic environments, Flash-flood hydrological science, Specificities of Mediterranean basins, Introduction to the vulnerability of the territory, Risk predictors, Meteo-hydrological field experiments, Radar hydrology, Predictabilities issues.

  6. Conclusions • In the project we implemented this method for the first time with LAM’s and GCM’s. • In the selected test cases, results are really good for temperature fields, reasonable (or at least promising !) for precipitation fields. • Results are quite interesting and deserve a deeper analysis to explore the application of multimodel methods for QPF.

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