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November 27, 2001 Alaska 20/20 Scott Goldsmith Professor of Economics

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Alaska Demographic, Economic, and Social Trends. November 27, 2001 Alaska 20/20 Scott Goldsmith Professor of Economics Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage. Alaska at 40. Maturing Economy Booms and Busts Petroleum Cycle Good Luck Surprises.

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November 27, 2001 Alaska 20/20 Scott Goldsmith Professor of Economics

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  1. Alaska Demographic, Economic, and Social Trends November 27, 2001 Alaska 20/20 Scott Goldsmith Professor of Economics Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage

  2. Alaska at 40 • Maturing Economy • Booms and Busts • Petroleum Cycle • Good Luck • Surprises

  3. Who Are We Today ?Population Change Since 1990 (000)

  4. Who Are We Becoming? Age Distribution of Alaskan in 2000

  5. Sustainable Economy:Indicators of Slowing Economy • Population • Resource Based Jobs • Total Jobs • Average Wage • Income per Household • Total Personal Income • Gross Product

  6. Sustainable Economy:Permanent Fund Dividend Payout (mill 99$)

  7. Sustainable Economy:Federal Aid Per Capita: #1 in Nation

  8. Sustainable Economy:Looking Ahead • Dividend • Federal $ • Petroleum • Traditional Resource Sector • New Resource Sector

  9. Sustainable Public Services:GF Oil Revenues (98 Bill $)

  10. Sustainable Public Services:Non-Oil Revenues (98 Bill $)

  11. Sustainable Public Services:Public Outlays (Ratio to US Avg.)

  12. Sustainable Public Services:Start of Year CBR Balance (bill $)

  13. Sustainable Public Services:Looking Ahead $1,000,000,000

  14. Natural Environment:Who Owns Alaska

  15. Natural Environment:Who Harvests Fish and Game?

  16. Natural Environment • Water • Air

  17. Education:Mixed Report Card • Average Educational Attainment High but Alaska Advantage Falling • ½ Students Failed High School Exit Exam • Fewer HS Students Graduate • Fewer HS Graduates Go to College • More Go to College Outside • Teacher Salaries less Competitive

  18. Education:Looking Ahead • College Age Population • Alaska Natives • Other Minorities • The Next Wave

  19. Community-Family-Health • Regional Life Style Differences • Low Tax / High PF Dividend • Income Distribution • HH composition

  20. Community-Family-Health:Bill of (Un)Health • Obesity • Smoking • Tuberculosis • Alcohol Related Deaths • Accidental Death • Suicide • Fetal Alcohol Syndrome

  21. Assets:What Do We Have to Work With ? • Marketable Resources • Natural Environment • Physical Infrastructure • Native Corporations • Financial Assets • Personal Assets • Social Capital

  22. Alaska Demographic, Economic, and Social Trends November 27, 2001 Alaska 20/20 Scott Goldsmith Professor of Economics Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage

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