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This overview of chaos theory highlights its significance in understanding randomness and unpredictability in both natural and social systems. The theory applies to various fields, including management, where it suggests adaptive and incremental strategies, fostering self-organization and dynamic human interactions. We explore the principles of chaos, ranging from non-linearity to sensitivity to initial conditions, and present practical applications such as a chaos theory-based SWOT analysis. Additionally, the role of chaos in industries and public administration is examined, illuminating paths for sustainable development and effective leadership.
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Shanghai TMP 2004 Top Management Program Shanghai Prof. F.. M. Macaranas May 2004
Introduction to Chaos Theory A. Clarification / definition of terms 1. Chaos theory • Definition:science that determines order in the randomness and unpredictability that exist in the natural and social systems Ex: coastlines, mountains, clouds, galaxy clusters, leaves, heart rhythms, etc.
Introduction A. Clarification / definition of terms 1. Chaos theory applications Self-organization in public administration: citizens can co-create goals, plans, and outcome that can be sustained by them and communities Dynamic evolution of industries and complex interactions among industry actors Human interaction and leadership styles: business organizations as complex adaptive systems Firms respond to changes in the environs more effectively if authentic relationships are valued at all levels of the companies Monsanto experiment: overloading 22,000 people to find new and creative ways of adapting to new environ
Introduction A. Clarification / definition of terms 1. Chaos theory applications Long-term strategies that are incremental and adaptive rather than prescriptive and rigid Furnaces that burn hotter, metals that can be more stressed, cars that burn fuel without stalling out Non-linear thinking in crisis management: real-time information provided by CNN during the Gulf War change political and military decisions unexpectedly
Introduction A. Clarification / definition of terms 1. Chaos theory underlying principles • Non-linearity • Determinism • Sensitivity to initial conditions • Sustained irregularity in the behavior of the system • Unpredictable long-term behavior • Self-organization • Positive feedback loops • Qualitative character of systems rather than numerical predictions of future states • Unstable • Aperiodic – no periodic repetition of values
Introduction A. Clarification / definition of terms 3. Chaos theory-based SWOT Identify the Strengths of an entity Classify whether these are characterized by order chaos randomness Identify W, O, and T Combine internal and external elements Think of a strategy based on the combination
Chaos Theory Example Chaotic systems, in this case a fractal, can appear to be smooth and ordered.
first recursion second recursion fourth recursion third recursion Chaos Theory Example: The Sierpinski’s Triangle
Applications to New Concept of National Security A. Clarification / definition of terms 3. SWOT analysis • Definition: a strategic model in management that combines internal strengths and weaknesses of an entity, and external opportunities and threats facing the same entity Opportunities Threats Strengths S-O S-T Weaknesses WO W-T Fractals are recursively defined and infinitely detailed
