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Manufacturing Prospects and Midwest Public Policy Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Real Effects of Currency Fluctuations. Manufacturing Prospects and Midwest Public Policy Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Michael M. Knetter UW-Madison School of Business. As quoted in the Wall Street Journal….

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Manufacturing Prospects and Midwest Public Policy Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

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  1. Real Effects of Currency Fluctuations Manufacturing Prospects and Midwest Public PolicyFederal Reserve Bank of Chicago Michael M. Knetter UW-Madison School of Business

  2. As quoted in the Wall Street Journal… Honda Motor claims that “every ¥en the dollar rises against the Japanese currency adds about $40 million to its profits.” Does this relationship make sense? Is this a big deal or a small deal?

  3. p2 MR2 q2 Price and Output Response to a Depreciation of the Exporter’s Currency ¥en/$ optimal price and quantity rise as a result of depreciation of the exporter’s currency for a given MC p1 MC MR1 q1 quantity

  4. Profit Response to a Depreciation of the Exporter’s Currency ¥en depreciation of exporter’s currency increases price, quantity, and profit p2 p1 MC q1 q2 quantity

  5. Is this a big deal for Honda??

  6. ¥en/$ in the 1990s: Implications for Honda’s Profits 1990 to 1995: 150 ¥en/$ to 90 ¥en/$ Profit change = ($40 mill)*(-60) = -$2.4 billion 1995 to 97: 90 ¥en/$ to 125 ¥en/$ Profit change = ($40 mill)*(+35) = +$1.4 billion

  7. Consequences of a Weaker $ for U.S. Manufacturing Sector • Reduction in costs of production relative to foreign competitors. • Higher $ prices and profit margins? • Higher production volume and employment? • Higher imported input costs? • Higher cash flows/profits. • Higher stock prices? • Less spending on lobbyists?

  8. Determinants of PTM/Pass-Through • Potential for arbitrage. • No PTM in gold. • Lots of PTM in autos. • Who is your competition? • Local competitors may force you to keep local prices stable (lots of PTM) • Is the market regulated? • Threat of trade sanctions may lead to stable local price strategy.

  9. How Widespread is Exposure to Currency Risk? • Demand side • Exports • Import competition • Indirect examples (restaurant in Miami Beach) • Supply side • Foreign input sourcing

  10. How much has the $ depreciated? • $ was worth 1.19 euros in summer 2001 • $ is worth about 0.80 euros today • 40% depreciation in nominal terms—approximately same in real terms • This should have large positive impact on manufacturers and farmers in the Midwest.

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