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A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics. Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference, Edinburgh 11 May 2010. What, how and why?. What: Interactions: population, carbon emissions, economy How:

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A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

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  1. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference, Edinburgh 11 May 2010

  2. What, how and why? • What: • Interactions: population, carbon emissions, economy • How: • Low dimensional dynamic model • Rates estimated from probability distributions fitted to UN datasets • Ensembles of model runs to capture uncertainty and variability • Why: • Trial probabilistic approach • Qualitative insights, informed by quantitative dynamics CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  3. Model overview Cumulative emissions carbon intensity of energy use Peak temperature change Damage rate energy use per capita death rate intrinsic growth rate GDP per capita birth rate GDP Population CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  4. State variables Cumulative emissions carbon intensity of energy use Peak temperature change Damage rate energy use per capita death rate intrinsic growth rate GDP per capita birth rate GDP Population CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  5. Rates inferred from probability distributions Cumulative emissions carbon intensity of energy use Peak temperature change Damage rate energy use per capita death rate intrinsic growth rate GDP per capita birth rate GDP Population CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  6. Derived quantities Cumulative emissions carbon intensity of energy use Peak temperature change Damage rate energy use per capita death rate intrinsic growth rate GDP per capita birth rate GDP Population CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  7. Scenarios Cumulative emissions carbon intensity of energy use Peak temperature change Damage rate energy use per capita death rate intrinsic growth rate GDP per capita birth rate GDP Population CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  8. Model overview Cumulative emissions carbon intensity of energy use Peak temperature change Damage rate energy use per capita death rate intrinsic growth rate GDP per capita birth rate GDP Population CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  9. Birth rate vs GDP per capita Data from http://unstats.un.org and http://data.un.org CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  10. Birth rate vs GDP per capita CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  11. Death rate vs GDP per capita Data from http://unstats.un.org and http://data.un.org CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  12. Death rate vs GDP per capita CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  13. Energy use per capita vs GDP per capita Data from http://unstats.un.org and http://data.un.org CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  14. Energy use per capita vs GDP per capita CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  15. Modelled historical distributions: population * World population CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  16. Modelled historical distributions: cumulative emissions * World cumulative emissions CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  17. Modelled historical distributions: world GDP * World GDP CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  18. Mitigation CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  19. Climate damages Committed peak temperature change due to cumulative emissions: (Raupach et al, 2010) CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  20. Climate damages Relationship between damage rate and DTpeak: CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  21. Climate damages Relationship between damage rate and DTpeak: CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  22. Proportion of runs with DTpeak < 2˚C Mitigation completed sooner Steeper onset of damages CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  23. Proportion of runs with DTpeak < 2˚C Mitigation completed sooner Steeper onset of damages CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  24. Proportion of runs with rising GDP per capita Gentler onset of damages Mitigation completed sooner CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  25. Proportion of runs with rising GDP per capita Gentler onset of damages Mitigation completed sooner CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  26. Proportion of runs withDTpeak < 2˚C AND rising GDP per capita Gentler onset of damages Mitigation completed sooner CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  27. Population <10 billion only Gentler onset of damages Mitigation completed sooner CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  28. Max allowable energy use per capita Energy use per capita (kg oil equiv/person/yr) Gentler onset of damages Mitigation completed sooner CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  29. Energy use per capita vs GDP per capita Data from http://unstats.un.org and http://data.un.org CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  30. Conclusions • Data-driven probabilistic approach: • Uses more of the information inherent in datasets • Allows propagation of variability and uncertainty • Forward model to 2100 generates distributions of trajectories consistent with system evolving under realistic rates • Probability distributions are more informative than single trajectories. • Qualitative dynamics: • Surfaces in mitigation-damage space: steep boundary between ‘poverty trap’ and ‘good life’. • Population-energy patterns within mitigation-damage scenario. • Applicability more broadly • Framework suitable for studying other systems in which environmental limits interact with population and economy. CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  31. Contact Us Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176 Email: enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au Thank you CSIRO Land and Water Dr Nicky Grigg Phone: +61 2 6246 5569 Email: nicky.grigg@csiro.au

  32. Model assumptions • Population (P): • birth and death rates. • Cumulative carbon dioxide emissions since1751 (E) • population size • energy use per capita • carbon intensity of energy supply. • GDP (A): • Endogenous and population-related growth rates • Climate feedback on GDP: • Global peak temperature change is a function of cumulative carbon dioxide emissions. • Temperature changes damage the economy. CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  33. Model equations: population Population (P) deaths/year births/year kbirthis the birth rate per capita (births/person/year) kdeath is the death rate per capita (births/person/year) Birth and death rates change over time and are a function of GDP per capita CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  34. Model equations: cumulative emissions Cumulative emissions since 1751 (E) c is the carbon intensity of energy (gC/MJ) kenergyis the rate of energy use per capita (MJ/person/year) P is the population Energy use per capita varies over time and is a function of GDP per capita. Carbon intensity per MJ changes over time as an exogenously prescribed mitigation trajectory CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

  35. Model equations: GDP GDP (A) Intrinsic GDP growth rate Population-related GDP growth rate Climate-related damage rate a = 0 : no population impact on GDP growth a = 1 : population impact on GDP growth rate CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics

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