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World Airshow Accident/Incident Overview 2012 “Looking Back to Look Forward”

World Airshow Accident/Incident Overview 2012 “Looking Back to Look Forward”.

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World Airshow Accident/Incident Overview 2012 “Looking Back to Look Forward”

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  1. World Airshow Accident/Incident Overview 2012“Looking Back to Look Forward” “A realistic, clear-eyed look at risk management for display flying is a sobering exercise. Emotionally, we all LOVE absolute extreme edge of the envelope flying....right up until the revulsion of impact. Airshow accident statistics are all that remain!” (Maj Gen Scott Hammond, US ANG) Des Barker 4 February 2013

  2. Scope • Role & Function of Airshow Executive Safety Management • Display Physiological Environment • A Statistical Analysis - “The Inconvenient Truth” • Overview of Airshow Relate Accidents 2012! Chicago Air Show 21 August 2005

  3. WHAT IS THE ROLE AND FUNCTION OF AIRSHOW CONTROLLING BODIES? Accountable For ? Airshow Safety • Responsible For ? • Visioning – setting safety objectives. • Imposition and implementation of regulations through the specific country’s regulatory authorities. • Instilling “SAFETY IS AN ATTITUDE” across the entire airshow population spectrum. • Fostering of good relations with airshow organisations.

  4. EXECUTIVE SAFETY MANAGEMENT’S RESPONSIBILITY • To ensure that the • implementation of policies, • procedures • and equipment utilisation, • is adequately addressed and that • personnel are trained within their areas of expertise. • Develop and Manage Airshow Safety Strategic Objectives. • Develop and Manage an Airshow Safety Management System. • Compliance with Military and Chicago Convention Obligations. • Monitor regulatory compliance through ICAS/EAC/ASSA appointed officers. • Practice safety oversight and regulation enforcement through regulatory bodies. • Ensure Zero Tolerance of poor individual and/or Corporate performance. French Connection Mudry CAP 10 27 May 2000

  5. The Hostile Low Level Environment • God did not design man to fly! • 2 – Dimensional Creatures! • Human Physiology Challenges • Closing Rates 1500 kms/hr • Extremely High Rates of Descent 300 KTAS vertical • Normal Acceleration +9g/-6g • Roll Rates >360deg/sec • Human Physiology Weaknesses • Relatively Low reaction times • Inability to make quick, consistent and repeatable decisions • Inability to make good decisions repeatedly under pressure

  6. AIM To review the worldwide airshow accident and incident safety statistics for 2012.

  7. Definition of Airshow Accidents Longman Family Dictionary in the context of airshows – “exhibition” = “a public showing” and therefore makes all public aviation events, be they static or flying, an exhibition of some sort. In context, this includes rehearsals for: • Airshows • Air races • Flypasts • Wingwalkers • Barnstorming/Crazy Flying

  8. Significant Indicators 2012 • Good News: • For the first time in history?? No spectators injured or killed. • No media ‘feeding frenzy’ – 2011 Reno/Duxford/Red Arrows • 17 vs 105 killed/injured in 2011. • Bad News: • MACHINE failures continue for 2nd year - disproportionate number of vintage aircraft mechanical failures! • 3 FIT Roll accidents. • Red Arrows pilot reassigned’. • Significant increase in airshow accidents vs display practice. • Budget constraints for military display teams.

  9. Structural Failure Flight Into Terrain There are no new accidents – Just new pilots making old accidents (Hoover)! Mechanical Failure Air Races

  10. Statistical Analysis! Lies! Damned Lies! Statistics!!! Benjamin Disraeli -Charles Wentworth Dilke (1843-1911).

  11. The Inconvenient Truth! “A Few Good Men". with Tom Cruise, Demi Moore, Jack Nicholson, Kiefer Sutherland, Kevin Bacon. (1991) Nicholson: "You want answers?!!" Cruise: "I want the truth!!" Nicholson:"You can't HANDLE the truth!!"

  12. Statistical Analysis 2012 10 Year Average = 27.6 Airshow Accidents 10 Previous Years Sample Size = 276

  13. Statistical Analysis 2012 Lviv, Ukraine; Su-27 (85/156) *Reno Air Race P-51 (11/66) *Osprey (10) *Tiger Moth (39)

  14. Fatalities (1908 to 2012) 1029 vs 1429 = 2458 Sample Size = 2458

  15. Statistical Analysis 2012 Airshow Accident Casualties 2012 = 17

  16. Statistical Analysis 2012 Vintage Aircraft = 51% Sample Size = 28 Airshow Accident/Incidents Aircraft Categories

  17. Statistical Analysis 2012 2012 2011 Sample Size = 34 Sample Size = 26 Airshow Accident/incident Causal Factors

  18. Statistical Analysis 2012 Judgement Error = 42% Non Human Error = 50% Airshow Accident/incident Analysis Human Judgement Error Sample Size = 26

  19. Statistical Analysis 2012 Sample Size = 26 Sample Size = 34 2012 2011 We do not “train like we fly and fly like we train!!!! Airshow Accident/incident Analysis Display vs Practice

  20. Statistical Analysis 2012 2012 2011 Sample Size = 12 Sample Size = 12 Comparative Airshow Accident/incident Analysis - Countries

  21. Statistical Analysis 2012 2011 2012 Comparative Airshow Accident/incident Analysis – Military vs Civilian

  22. Accident Data Base 2012

  23. Accident Data Base 2012

  24. “But remember please, the law by which we live,We are not built to comprehend a lie,We can neither love, nor pity, nor forgive, If you make a slip in handling us, you die”Rudyard Kipling“Secret of the Machines” The Law of Machines

  25. Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage Fairey Firefly California, USA 03 June 2012

  26. Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage

  27. Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage

  28. Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage

  29. Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage

  30. Mechanical Failure - Engine De Havilland DH-53 Hummingbird, Duxford, UK 1 July 2012

  31. Mechanical Failure - Engine Interstate S-1/L-6 Scout, Edmonton, Canada 4 August 2012

  32. Mechanical: Human Error Korean Aircraft Industries T-T50 B Oshkosh, USA 28 July 2011

  33. Mechanical Failure: Engine? Hongdu K-8W Karakorum Caracas, Venezuela 27 November 2012

  34. LOC? IAR 99 Hawk 718 Craiova, Romania 23 August 2012

  35. Flight Into Terrain – Barrel Roll Goodyear F2G Super Corsair, North Dakota, USA 7 September 2012

  36. Flight Into Terrain Barrel Roll Yak 52 Alabama, USA 16 September 2012

  37. Flight Into Terrain Snap Rolls Zlin 226 Germany, 30 April 2012

  38. Flight Into Terrain – Split S 0V-10 Bronco, Cotswold, UK 10 July 2012

  39. Flight Into Terrain(G-LOC)? ‘Crossover Break’ Aerovodochody L-39 Albatros Iowa, USA 1 September 2012

  40. Loss of Control Snap Rolls SIAI Marchetti AS 202 Bravo Bandung, Indonesia 20 August 2011

  41. 2012 EXECUTIVE SAFETY MANAGEMENT SCORECARD • 26 Airshow Accidents & Incidents • 28 Aircraft • 13 Pilots Killed • 2 Pilots Injured • 1 Pax Killed • 1 Pax Injured • TOTAL = 17 vs 105 killed/injured!!! FAIL!!!

  42. Questions that need Answers! • What is it that we want from an airshow! • Do we need to regulate more strictly? • Where does one draw the line between regulation and an individual’s choice? • Are Safety Officers exercising sufficiently strict oversight! • Is our attitude one of total dedication to safety above personal ego and spectator’s adrenalin rush? • The pressures of weather versus spectator entertainment? • Minimum distance of spectator enclosure from showline? • Is ICAS, EAC and ASSA making determined and effective efforts to change the culture of the airshow population group? • Are Airshow Councils providing the necessary safety strategies? • Is adequate Risk Management applied to air event organisation?

  43. Thank You! • “I have learned that carelessness and overconfidence are usually far more dangerous than deliberately accepted risks.” • (Wilbur Wright 1900 in a letter to his father) Frecce Tricolori USAF Ramstein 1988

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