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Use/Demand. Concepts/units Methods Use in Planning Management/operations Evaluation Needs assessment Forecasts. Why Measure Use. Operational decisions maintenance, staffing, budget allocations Needs Performance measure/evaluation. What to measure.

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## Use/Demand

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**Use/Demand**• Concepts/units • Methods • Use in Planning • Management/operations • Evaluation • Needs assessment • Forecasts**Why Measure Use**• Operational decisions • maintenance, staffing, budget allocations • Needs • Performance measure/evaluation**What to measure**• Use units – individual, groups…visit, visitor, trip, day, RVD, vehicle entry,… • Level of detail/aggregation • Temporal • Spatial • By activity • By user characteristics**Use estimation questions**• Measure or estimate use at existing site • Forecast use at existing site • Forecast changes in use • New sites/products • Change at site or within the environment**Key determinants of use**• Population size & characteristics • Distances to markets • Tastes & preferences • Prices • Substitutes • Quality/quantity of supply • Promotion/information • Weather/climate**Methods for estimating use**• On-site techniques • Counting devices • Observation • Surveys (sample or census) • Off-site • Use prediction Models – e.g. Gravity model • Trip generation • Trip distribution**Double Sampling Technique**• 1. Select a variable that is easily measured • E.g. water meter - W • 2. Establish a relationship with use • U = a * W + c • Calibration via “double sampling” /linear regression • U = 1/3 * W - 2 • 3. Regularly measure W and apply equation • 4. Periodically recalibrate See page 21 of lecture handouts for details**Sampling to estimate use**• Stratify time periods into H, M, L use • E.g. weekend, weekday, am, pm, eve • Sample representative periods within each stratum • Measure use during each sampled period, compute averages • Expand from sample to population**Lansing Trail Strata:Use counts for one hour**Overall avg = 42,Total use = 42 *12 hours*31 days = 15,624**Gravity Model**• Ti,j = K* Pi *Aj / D2ij • Where • Ti,j = trips from origin i to destination j • Pi = population of origin I • Aj = measure of attractiveness of destination j • Dij = distance from i to j (or cost) • K =calibration constant**Linear regression model**• V = a0 + a1 X1 + a2 X2 + a3 X3 +… an Xn • Where • a’s are coefficients to be estimated • X’s are independent variables/use predictors • E.g. V = participation rate • Frequency of participation • Visits in past year • X’s : age, income, gender, location, weather…**Demography**• Forecast size, geographic distribution, and age-sex composition of the population • Census 2000 data • American Fact Finder**Participation by demographic characteristics**• Age • Income • Gender • Rural/urban, location • Racial/ethnic group

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