2012 animal outlook chris hurt hurtc @purdue edu purdue university august 19 2011 n.
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2012 Animal Outlook Chris Hurt hurtc @purdue.edu Purdue University August 19, 2011. If your still standing. Congratulations. Grain and Feed . Two Big Demand Shocks.

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2012 animal outlook chris hurt hurtc @purdue edu purdue university august 19 2011
2012 Animal OutlookChris Hurt hurtc@purdue.eduPurdue University August 19, 2011

Department of Agricultural Economics

Purdue University

slide2

If your still standing

Congratulations

Department of Agricultural Economics

Purdue University

slide4

Grain and Feed

Department of Agricultural Economics

Purdue University

two big demand shocks
Two Big Demand Shocks
  • Ethanol - From the 2005 crop, 7.8 million corn acres were needed to meet the ethanol needs (by-product adjusted). That climbed to23.7 million U.S. corn acres in 2010, an increase of 15.9 million acres.
  • U.S. soybean exports to China required the production from 8.3 million acres of the 2005 crop, but 22.8 million acres of the 2010 crop—an additional 14.5 million acres.
change in world area of major crops
Change in World Area of Major Crops

70% from New Land

30% from shifting

slide10

Grain and Feed

  • Will Slow

Department of Agricultural Economics

Purdue University

slide11

155 Million Bu. Per Year: 2011-14

Trend Yields

0 Million Bu. Per Year: 2015-2022

Department of Agricultural Economics

Purdue University

slide13

Livestock Industry

Adjustments to

Grain Shocks

Department of Agricultural Economics

Purdue University

slide29

Will High feed prices Persist??

Department of Agricultural Economics

Purdue University

slide30

Agricultural policies for surplus vs. shortage?

Surplus

Shortage

  • Most of U.S. History
  • Reduce Supply
    • Set-asides
    • Soil Bank
    • CRP-Conservation
  • Increase Demand
    • Food Stamps
    • School Lunch
    • Export Enhancement
    • Ethanol mandate/tax credits
  • Limited History
  • Increase Supply
    • Release/reduce CRP
    • Flexible haying/grazing CRP
    • Research & education
    • Production incentives
  • Reduce Demand
    • Limit export incentives
    • No mandates or tax credits
    • Establish priorities

Department of Agricultural Economics

Purdue University

slide31

Questions?

Department of Agricultural Economics

Purdue University