alle radici del declino italiano il persistere del dualismo
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Alle radici del declino italiano: il persistere del dualismo. Roma , 18 aprile 2013. Stefano Prezioso. Italian dualism : Centre-North and Mezzogiorno

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slide2
Italiandualism: Centre-North and Mezzogiorno

What do wemeanforMezzogiorno? Wemean the problemsof the Italiansouth-eightregions, that are Abruzzo, Molise, Puglia, Campania, Basilicata, Calabria, includingSardinia and Sicily. Thismeansthat more than 40% ofItalianterritory and more than a thirdof Italy’s population: 123 thousandsquarekilometers on total 301,336; 20 million 913 thousandinhabitants on more than 60 million (34,5%).

slide3
La rottura del processo di convergenza
  • La relazione tra disuguaglianza e crescita
  • L’inadeguatezza delle politiche di sviluppo
slide4
ECONOMIC DUALISM:

GDP GAP PER INHABITANT

The MEZZOGIORNO’S GDP IS ABOUT 58,4% THAN THAT OF the CENTRE-NORTH

slide5
GDP per capite (Ue=100) Regions Convergence and regions Competitiveness in some European countries
slide6
Deviazione standard del pil pro capite nei paesi di sola convergenza e di sola competitività nella UE a 27
slide7
Deviazione standard del pil pro capite regionale nelle economie “dualistiche” della UE a 27
slide9
GDP (Annualaveragechanges*, % )

*Calculated on chained values– base year 2000

slide10
Table 1. Recovery from GDP crisis (a)

(a) At constant prices, chained values– base year 2000

slide11
JOB EMERGENCY AND SOCIAL DYNAMICS:

THE YOUNG AND WOMEN CONDITION

“The crisis has shown the effects of a long phase in which public policies seemed to have missed their target of reducing inequality of incomes and opportunities among citiziens, which is central to activate stable growth processes.

In light of this, it is possible to read the economic and social recession of the mezzogiorno, the Italian south. But we can also draw important policy implications in this particular moment of ever-tightening fiscal policy measures.”

slide12
JOB EMERGENCY: HALF MILLION OF JOB LOSSES

First quarter 2008 – First quarter 2012

-536,000

-366,000

to the SOUTH

(-5.5%)

-169,000

to the NORTH

(-1.0%)

27% employed

69% job losses

73% employed

31% job losses

slide13
JOB EMERGENCY: YOUNG PEOPLE CONDITION

Employment change by age categories (First quarter 2008 – First quarter 2012)

slide16
Le regioni del Mezzogiorno più povere e più disuguali

La disuguaglianza dei redditi nelle regioni italiane

slide17
Il rischio povertà: le famiglie in bilico

Quota dei lavoratori esposti al rischio povertà per settore

slide18
Le nuove povertà: anche gli occupati

sono sempre più a rischio

Quota dei lavoratori esposti al rischio povertà per titolo di studio

Quota delle famiglie esposte al rischio povertà per percettori di reddito

slide20
Valueadded per hourworked. Indexnumber 2000=100 in the business sector (a)

(a) Industry and service sector

slide21
Productivity (a) in the manufacturing from 2000 to 2009, indexnumber 2000=100

(a)Valueaddedcomputed on chainedprices per hourworked

slide22
AK MODEL

Oneof the mostimportanttheoretical and empiricalframeworkwithineconomicgrowthstudiesis the extended family ofendogenousgrowthmodels, the so-called ‘AK’ model, i.e.:

Y = AK [1]

In the case weconsiderexplicitly the labour input, the production function (1) can bewrittenas:

Y/L = Y/K * K/L [2]

Thus, the productivityofaneconomic system can beexpressed in termsofcapital endowment(K/L, or capital intensity) and “efficiency” (Y/K)

slide24
ESTIMATED MODEL (ECM)

∆ log(y_h) = a + b ∆ log(k) + c ∆ log(Y) + dLRun(-1) [3]

where:

y_h:valueadded per hourworked

k: capital/labourratio

Y: valueadded

and the termLrun = log(y_h) – (α + β log(k)) [2]

is the long-runtermlinking the productivitygrowthto the rise of capital/labourratio. Thisvariableprovidesanindicationofstructuraldynamicsofan economy, i.e. itindicates the absorptivecapacity and diffusionof a technicalprogessthat can beavailable (movementsof the functiony_h = f(k) up and down of the 45° line).

slide26
ECM equation relative to the hourlyproductivity in the business sector (a) in the Centre-North and Mezzogiorno of Italy

(a) Industry and service sector

slide27
A graphicalrepresentationof the resultsfromestimated ECM equation

y_h

Mezzogiorno

Centre-North

45°

k

1995/96

2001/02

slide28
Results

The valuelinking the output–Verdooncoefficient–to the (hourly) productivitytakes, in bothmacro-regions, relativelyhighervalues and, mostimportantly, they are quitesimilar.

The errorcorrectiontermcomes, in fact, fromresidualsof a long-runrelationshipwithsplines, in Mezzogiorno, both in the constant, and in the Centre-North, and in coefficientsofy_h and k, differentlyfrom the othermacro-region.

slide29
Centre-North: the break in the constantis indicative of a competitive shock whichworked on the absolutesizeof the system, butnot on the main relations within the system (2001 is the yearwhere competitive pressurefromabroad show up).

Mezzogiorno: the full break shows up between the end ofExtraordinaryMeasure and the beginningof a new Policy (New Programme, 1998): the loss ofpolicy effectiveness in stimulating the accumulationprocess. (Between 1991 and 1995 grossinvestments in the South fell down ofabout 16 billionsofeuros, whichisequalto 1/3 of the levelrecorded in 1991, whichwillnotbereachedanymore).

slide32
Productinnovation/ export. Valuesoffirmpopulation in manufacturing

Numberof manufacturing firmsactive in 2007: 513,337 (ISTAT).

2004-2006: the percentageoffirmsreportingproductinnovationisaround11,8%(about 61 thousandfirms).

Numberofexportingfirms up to2006: 87,444 (ISTAT), about16.8%of total firms

slide33
Accelerare il grado di apertura del Mezzogiorno per rompere l’immobilità del sistema meridionale

PERIFERICITA’

INTEGRAZIONE

ACCESSIBILITA’

PROMOZIONE DELL’EXPORT

INTERNAZIONALIZZAZIONE

ATTRAZIONE DEGLI INVESTIMENTI

slide34
INTERNAZIONALIZZAZIONE

DEBOLEZZA STRUTTURALE DELL’EXPORT MERIDIONALE

Quota % per settore alla Pavitt

slide35
INTERNAZIONALIZZAZIONE

ATTRAZIONE DEGLI INVESTIMENTI DIRETTI ESTERI

DISTRIBUZIONE TERRITORIALE

slide36
Centre-North (numericallylimitedadjustment)

Strategiesbased on more thanone competitive drivers. Amongthem, innovationandinternationalisationdrivers play a crucialrole and are the mosteffective. (In 2001, the macro-region ‘North-West’ isbetterplacedin suchendowments).

South (divergence)

Causesofintegrationprocesses: «greaterdisparity in regionalgrowthrates, becausewithincreasedfactormobilityregionswilltendtoadjusttoshocksbyadding or sheddingresourcesratherthanbyadding or sheddingindustries» (Krugman, 1999).

Chance ofasymmetricshocks

slide37
Whathappened in 2009: in frontof a fall in exportsoscillatingamong 20% and 24% in the mainmacro-regions, the output slowdown in manufacturing showedanequalintensity, around 15 percentagepoints. Herewerecallthat, concerning the degreeofopeness on global markets, the South (8%) isaboutone-thirdof the correspondingvalueweobserve in the twomacro-regionsof the North (around 22%).

The global market for manufacturing firmslocated in the South ishistoricallyofsmallsize, and itremainedunchanged.

Meanwhile the domestic market, the mostcommonly-used market, hasshrunk.

Drasticslowdownof the competitive forceof the Mezzogiorno

slide38
A restartofmigrationflowscomparabletothatreported in 1950-1960s

Changesof residence:

Mezzogiorno114,000

40% ofgraduated (scientificsubjects) people

Long-raycommuters:

Mezzogiorno134,000

Dati 2010

slide40
Superiamo i luoghi comuni: Non è vero che la spesa per le politiche di coesione sia enorme e crescente

SPESA DELLA P.A. IN CONTO CAPITALE NEL MEZZOGIORNO

alcuni esempi di carenza nei servizi ordinari nel mezzogiorno
Alcuni esempi di carenza nei servizi “ordinari” nel Mezzogiorno
  • % di famiglie che denunciano irregolarità nella distribuzione dell’Acqua: 21,8% nel Sud, oltre il 30% in Calabria e Sicilia; 9% nel Centro-Nord
  • Interruzioni servizio elettrico per utente: 78 minuti nel Sud contro 28 min. nel Nord
  • % anziani con assistenza domiciliare integrata: 1,7% nel Mezzogiorno, 1% in Campania e Calabria contro il 5,6% dell’Emilia, il 5,1% del Veneto.
  • Solo il 10,2% dei rifiuti al Sud è oggetto di raccolta differenziata contro il 33% del Centro-Nord, oltre il 40% in Trentino, Lombardia, Veneto,
slide42
Rimane un enorme problema di qualità della spesa. La quantità è rilevante seppur in deciso calo negli ultimi anni.
  • Regioni senza adeguate competenze interne cui sono stati affidati troppi poteri, con pochi controlli ed esclusivamente di carattere procedurale;
  • Incapacità di coordinamento tra Regioni e tra Regioni e Amministrazione centrali soprattutto sui grandi progetti infrastrutturali;
  • Eccessiva frammentazione degli interventi;
  • difficoltà nel seguire la tempistica imposta dall’Unione in termini di pesa e conseguente largo uso di progetti sponda
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