Populations Perils

1. Populations Perils Why Understanding Population is Necessary https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sc4HxPxNrZ0 Jeff Cherry - KISD

2. Explosion? Jeff Cherry - KISD

3. From an elderly world, to possible extinction. Or Implosion? Jeff Cherry - KISD

4. 273 births per minute 16,020 an hour 392,714 births a day 143,341,000 births a year 2014 estimates 108 people die per minute 6,420 an hour die 155,505 a day die 56,759,000 deaths per year A net global population gain of over 86.5 million annually Basic Global Demographics7.2 billion on earth in 2014!http://www.npr.org/2011/10/31/141816460/visualizing-how-a-population-grows-to-7-billion Jeff Cherry - KISD

5. Mental Map the world of Katy! • With no devices or other aid, finish the rest of the map provided with your mental atlas! • Include to the best of your ability: • Major roads, schools, places of business, shopping and restaurants • You have 10 minutes!! Jeff Cherry - KISD

6. Are we overpopulated? • What is overpopulation? • Overpopulation is essentially, too many people for the available resources. Jeff Cherry - KISD

7. Where are we overpopulated? • LDC’s (Least Developed Countries)have difficulty overcoming the effects of too many people. • MDC’s (Most Developed Countries) are guilty of overconsumption of the world’s resources. Jeff Cherry - KISD

8. Carrying Capacity • Carrying capacity is the world’s ability to support and sustain life. “sustainability” • Is this a global, regional, or local scale question? • It’s all three • How long can we sustain? Jeff Cherry - KISD

9. Whatcarrying capacityissues are at stake? Jeff Cherry - KISD

10. Population growth has placed stress on environment, which: Means more farms and erodes more soil Means more fishing and depletes the oceans Means more mining and consumes more minerals/fuels Means more structures to builds while cutting and destroying forests and farm land (again) All of this made more problematic by 4-fold population increases in the 20th century And for context…only 30% of earth is land. Only fraction (1/3) of that is habitable/arable. Jeff Cherry - KISD

11. So what does this really mean? Meaning essentially only 10% of the earth is habitable, for an increasing population who wishes to live a highly consumable lifestyle across the planet. Something’s gotta give!! Jeff Cherry - KISD

12. Population Distribution Jeff Cherry - KISD

13. An even better look Jeff Cherry - KISD

14. Arithmetic Density measures the number of people per unit or area (per Mile/km) Jeff Cherry - KISD

15. Physiological Density • number of people per unit area of ARABLE land • Which type of density if most useful and accurate? Jeff Cherry - KISD

16. Cartogram – showing uneven population distribution Jeff Cherry - KISD

17. Total Fertility Rate(# of children per female) • Replacement 2.1 • Current worldwide 2.5 • MDC’s = 1.6 LDC’s = 4.3 • Rate of natural increase worldwide • 1.2% • MDC’s • 0.1% • LDC’s • 2.4% Jeff Cherry - KISD

18. What has the rate of growth looked like through history? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BbkQiQyaYc Jeff Cherry - KISD

19. The J curve Jeff Cherry - KISD

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21. Industrial Revolution • Late 1700’s to early 1800’s in England. • Inventions and innovations led to machinery. • This led to factories being built using iron and coal. • Textiles (clothes) industry became mechanized. Jeff Cherry - KISD

22. Industrial Revolution • This would lead to more people moving to the cities. • Better healthcare, sanitation, leads to longer life-expectancy. • People continued to have large families. • What’s the result? • EXPONENTIAL GROWTH Jeff Cherry - KISD

23. Thomas Malthus’ Prediction • British economist and minister predicted a population explosion. • Food will continue to increase arithmetically while population will increase exponentially. • Food 1+1+1+1= 4 • Population 1+1=2 x 2=4 x 2=8 Jeff Cherry - KISD

24. Will population growth exceed the carrying capacity? Who will be the winners, and who will be the losers? Malthus and Carrying Capacity Jeff Cherry - KISD

25. Demographic Transition Model • A process with several stages that societies go through that illustrates population growth and development. • Stage 1 – Low Growth • Stage 2 – High Growth • Stage 3 – Moderate Growth • Stage 4 – Low Growth • Stage 5 – No growth or declining population Jeff Cherry - KISD

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28. Can you figure out what stage? Jeff Cherry - KISD

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31. IMPLOSION – deaths exceeding births! • Will modernization spell the doom of some societies? • Many of the world’s countries are seeing below replacement levels (2.1 children per female) of population. Jeff Cherry - KISD

32. Why are women having fewer children: Later marriage Delaying childbirth (these two are different) Higher cost of raising children Urbanization Status of women Higher education levels Higher economic status Germany Statistic – In 2008, 39% of German women had reached the age of 40 without having had a child Jeff Cherry - KISD

33. Who is faced with implosive demographics today? • Russia -0.6% NIR • 142 mill. 2009 to 133 mill. In 2025 • Germany -0.2% NIR • 82.4 mill. 2009 to 79 mill. In 2025 • Italy 0.0% NIR • 61 mill. 2009 to 61 mill. In 2025 • Japan -0.0% NIR • 127.6 mill. 2009 to 119.3 mill. In 2025 Jeff Cherry - KISD

34. What are the risks of implosion? • The “graying” of the population. • A shrinking taxpayer base. Why? • How does migration and mobility effect the graying problem? Jeff Cherry - KISD

35. The Future?? • Conservative view is that the world’s population will see 9.5 billion by the year 2050. • We may then see a gradual leveling off. • 10% of the world will be over 65 years old! Jeff Cherry - KISD

36. Health and Population Dynamics Jeff Cherry - KISD