Setting the Stage

1. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director National Centers for Environmental Prediction UCACN Meeting October 25, 2012 Setting the Stage

2. Outline • NOAA/NWS Update • Summary of Progress on UCACN Recommendations • FY12 Highlights • FY13: A Look Ahead • Challenges

3. NOAA/NWS Update

4. NOAA/NWS Update • Leadership Changes Across NOAA and NWS • Dr. David Titley became NOAA Deputy Under secretary for Operations in June 2012 • Laura Furgione became Acting Director of NWS in May 2012 • Budget Uncertainties • Limited funding during six month Continuing Resolution (CR) • Election results will be key to full year funding levels

5. Summary of UCACN Recommendations Strategic Facility/Support R2O Process Admin Overload Deputy • Move to NCWCP • AWIPS2 Transition • Computing Capability • Operations • Research • R2O • Unified Modeling System • Open Weather and Climate • Mission Creep

6. Building Move Complete • On schedule • No operational products missed • No boxes lost • WWB closeout completed on schedule • Impacts better than expected

7. FY12 Highlights

8. 14 April 2012 Great Plains Outbreak • 60 Tornadoes (1 EF4, 3 EF3 & 3 EF2) • Outlook first issued 7 days in advance; Moderate Risk 3 days in advance; High Risk 2 days in advance (only 2nd time) • FEMA/State/local emergency managers engaged starting 3 days before the event • NWS average warning lead time (Tornadoes) : 13 minutes • 6 Fatalities in Woodward, OK near midnight

9. 14 April Great Plains Outbreak • “Anyone tuned into a television or weather service last week would have been hard pressed to miss the news that dangerous storms were brewing in the Midwest. Clearly, these storms were meant to be taken seriously.”  -- Kansas City Star • “The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., which specializes in tornado forecasting, took the unusual step of issuing a stern warning about the oncoming storms more than 24 hours in advance.”  -- Christian Science Monitor • “I really think people took the warnings and they took them very seriously. We had more notice on this system than you normally do. You normally are looking at a couple of hours’ notice. Well, this one had almost two days’ notice.”  -- Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback • “We'd been on the lookout for it for three days. We were as ready as we could have been.”-- Larry Hill, Thurman , IA (AP) resident whose home was destroyed

10. Global Model Track Guidancefor TS/Hurricane Isaac Sequence of 5-day 00 and 12 UTC cycle Isaac forecasts 23 August 2012 to 30 August 2012 ECMWF NCEP GFS

11. Sequence of 5-day 00 and 12 UTC cycle Isaac forecasts 26 August 2012 to 29 August 2012 NCEP GFS Global Model Track Guidancefor TS/Hurricane Isaac ECMWF

12. Hurricane Isaac Precipitation Forecast

13. NOAA’s Model Production Suite Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Forecast • NOS – OFS • Great Lakes • Northern Gulf of Mex • Columbia R. • Bays • Chesapeake • Tampa • Delaware Climate Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Coupled GFSMOM4 NOAH Sea Ice ~2B Obs/Day Satellites + Radar 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMMB Regional DA Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Space Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Regional DA WRF: ARW, NMM, NMMB Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model ENLIL NAM/CMAQ Rapid Refresh for Aviation 13 13 NOAH Land Surface Model

14. FY12 Model Implementations • NMMB – Oct 18, 2011 • Global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System – October 25, 2011 • NCEP/FNMOC Combined Wave Ensembles (NFCENS) – November 1, 2011 • Enlil– December 13, 2011 • GEFS – February 14, 2012 • SREF Upgrade – August 21, 2012 • GSI Hybrid EnKF-3DVAR Upgrade – May 22, 2012 New Models • NOS Bay Models • Sea Nettles • Enlil • Global RTOFS/HYCOM

15. Recent Upgrades • NMMB (introduction of NOAA Environmental Modeling Framework, first operational application of ESMF, allows for concurrent multi-scale model execution) – Oct 18, 2011 5 Hi-res Nested Domains

16. Recent Upgrades • NCEP/FNMOC Combined Wave Ensembles (NFCENS) – Nov 1, 2011 • Combines outputs from a total of 41 wave ensemble members: one control run and 20 members from the NCEP system, and 20 additional members from FNMOC. • Both orgs use the same wave model (WAVEWATCH III) but differences between the two wave forecasting systems provide benefits when combined, such as with improved mean ensemble products and improved ensemble statistical information. • The new combined products include combined significant wave height outputs, mean significant wave height, and significant wave height spread.

17. Recent Upgrades • GEFS – February 14, 2012 • Latest GFS, improved ensemble initialization • Resolution upgrade • Horizontal: T190(~70km)  T254 (~50km) out to 8 days • Vertical: 28 to 42 levels out to 16 days NAEFS Precipitation Forecasts - 6-10 Forecast Made 10/03/2012 Forecast Valid from 10/09/2012 to 10/13/2012 Forecast Valid from 10/09/2012 to 10/13/2012 North America Above Normal Probabilities North America Below Normal Probabilities

18. Recent Upgrades • SREF Upgrade – August 21, 2012 • eliminate Eta and RSM models and add new NEMS-based NMMB model • Model upgrade (two existing WRF cores from v2.2 to version 3.3) • Resolution increase (from 32km to 16km) • More diversity for initial conditions and physics Current SREF Mean Upgraded SREF Mean

19. Data Assimilation Upgrade • Use of GOES-13 and GOES-15 sounder data • Improved Quality Control of NASA AIRS data • Improved observation errors for NOAA SBUV (Ozone) data • Fewer Dropouts • Improved tropical cyclone forecasts • GSI Hybrid EnKF-3DVAR Upgrade – May 22, 2012 • EnKF hybrid system • New version of Forecast model • Use of NPP Advanced Microwave Technology Sensor (ATMS) – 7 months after launch • Use of GPSRO bending angles (replace refractivity) GFS hybrid 48 h forecast verifying 5/13/12 1200 UTC GFS operational 48 h forecast verifying 5/13/12 1200 UTC EnKF Hybrid GDAS Package Parallel - Northern Hemisphere Current SREF Mean ECMWF 48 h forecast verifying 5/13/12 1200 UTC Verifying analysis 5/13/12 1200 UTC

21. Newest Members of the Model Production Suite

22. Global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System • First global eddy-resolving ocean forecast system at NOAA/NCEP. • Based on a 1/12 degree HYCOM (HYbridCoordinate Ocean Model) – Community model developed under National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP) – led by Navy/FSU • “saved 10 years of development time if done internally” • Attributes • 1/12th degree horizontal resolution • Run once per day out six days • 32 vertical hybrid layers • Earth System Modeling Framework compatible • Provide boundary conditions for coastal models • Implemented operationally on October 25, 2011 • Output: global sea surface height and three dimensional fields of temperature, salinity, density and velocity

23. Space Weather: Enlil • First large-scale, physics-based space weather prediction model to be put into operations • Jointly developed by scientists with NOAA, NASA, the Air Force Research Laboratory, the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder, Boston University, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and George Mason University. • Provide 1-4 day advance warning of geomagnetic storms • Provides perspective on structures 1-27 days in advance • Reduces error in geomagnetic storm onset time from ±12 hrs to ±6 hrs Enlil Forecast from September 28, 2012 valid October 1, 2012 Missed Earth impact time by only 47 minutes

24. NOS – Community Bay Models Running on NCEP’s Operational Computers • Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System • Columbia River Estuary Operational Forecast System • Delaware Bay Operational Forecast System • Northern Gulf of Mexico Operational Forecast System • Tampa Bay Operational Forecast System

25. An Example of Operational Ecological Forecasting (Sea Nettles) • Global Ocean Forecasts • Ecological Forecasts • Forecasting Sea Nettles • Bay Forecasts

26. FY13: A Look Ahead • Selection of Milestones for Individual Centers Provided in Appendix

27. Strategic Outlook/Priorities for FY13 • New computer (transition to new system in FY13) • Longer term strategic upgrades (GPU?) • Model implementation plan • Will apply to all implementations on new computer • AWIPS II – service centers linking to WFOs • NAWIPS conversion • Thin client approach to serve UNIDATA/University community

28. Implementation Efficiency– Global Multi-grid Wave version 2.1.5

29. Implementation Efficiency– Global Multi-grid Wave version 3.0.0 Implementation is planned for May 8, 2012.

30. AWIPS II Status • AWIPS I remains in only two NCEP Centers, AWC and NHC • Grid performance in National Center Perspective has exceeded NAWIPS • Forecaster Initial Testing occurring this week on NCEP Testbed – AWC, NHC, SPC • Unidata / Universities do not have the resources to support the AWIPS II hardware configuration • NCO will be testing the Thin Client to potentially serve as a solution for UNIDATA and Universities use of NAWIPS/AWIPS II • Focus for FY13: • Opening the dataflow for the National Center Perspective data to all NCEP AWIPS II systems • Testing Thin Client functionality for COOP and R2O purposes • Fixing Discrepancy Reports • Local Center system configuration • Planning for entrance into FOTE 30

31. Challenges

32. Challenges and related uncertainties • FY13 Budget • FY14 Budget • Sustaining the strategic initiatives/priorities – insuring a viable O2R! • Addressing the Academy recommendations – “second to none”

33. Summary • Remain committed to respond to all recommendations • Look forward to working with UCACN – help us to address the strategic opportunities (next generation model approaches, collaborative forecasting, increasing use of ensembles for impact-based forecasts, enabling prediction across other disciplines, …) • Highest priority for FY13  obtain/sustain increased operational computer capacity; insure transition to new IBM iDataPlex is on schedule

34. Appendix

35. FY13 Milestones • NCO/EMC • Complete Transition to the New Operational Supercomputer (WCOSS) – Q4 • NCO • Lead NCEP’s Migration to AWIPS2 – Q4 • EMC • Support development of NOAA Ecological Modeling Plan with NOS – Q4 • Develop experimental capability to run Nearshore Wave Prediction System – Q3

36. FY13 Milestones • HPC • Begin generating full suite of medium-range products twice per day for the CONUS – Q2 • Begin issuing quantitative precipitation forecasts year round for days 6 and 7 at six-hour forecast intervals – Q2 • OPC • Enable ecological forecasting demonstration: Transition the NOS pathogen prediction (V.Vulnificus) model to OPC production suite – Q2 • Produce experimental gridded (5km) offshore wind and wave forecasts for NDFD – Q4 • Produce an experimental graphic probabilistic storm track product – Q2

37. FY13 Milestones • CPC • Develop CPC Strategic Plan with stakeholder community – Q1-Q4 • Detail one CPC FTE to NOAA Policy Office to provide advice on extremes of climate and weather – Q1-Q2 • Implement experimental daily global surface temperature analysis – Q4 • Develop Plan for Phase I of an NMME-driven Global Drought Information System – Q4 • AWC • Extend Collaborative Convective Forecast Product to an eight hour forecast per request of FAA – Q2 • Conduct the inaugural AWT Winter Experiment focused on the impact to traffic flow management by precipitation type, frozen precipitation accumulation, icing, turbulence, ceilings, and low visibility – Q2 • Sustain FAA Command Center Presence– Q1-Q4

38. FY13 Milestones • SPC • Work with OCWWS, NWS Partners and the social science community to improve the communication of severe weather risk and potential impacts within public SPC Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches (SEL) – Q4 • Add societal impact information to SPC website for severe weather forecasts. This new information will exploit population characteristics within forecast risk areas to more effectively convey the potential forecast implications to customers and partners – Q3 • Create experimental full convective day probabilistic SPC Thunderstorm Outlooks as part of a broader experiment to increase efficiencies in these forecasts through close integration of forecaster and ensemble numerical weather prediction - Q4 • NHC • Begin experimental public 5-day tropical cyclone genesis forecasts – Q4 • Produce Experimental Day 6 and 7 Hurricane Forecasts – Q3 • Develop NOAA Wavewatch III applications using TAFB-generated wind grids in collaboration with EMC – Q3

39. FY13 Milestones • SWPC • Complete and close out all remaining SWPCC&A POAMs – Q1 • Disseminate new Space Weather Prediction Center plain language forecast and discussion products - Q1 • Transition Ovation Auroral model to SWPC operations – Q4 • Transition North American TEC product to SWPC operations – Q4 • Complete the development and integration of a NEMS version of the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) – Q4