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Review of Schank’s Scripts: consist of a set of slots. Associated with each slot may be information about the kinds of values it may contain, as well as default values. Scripts have causal structure – events connected to earlier events that make them possible, and later events they enable.
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Associated with each slot may be information about the kinds of values it may contain, as well as default values.
Scripts have causal structure – events connected to earlier events that make them possible, and later events they enable.
Headers of scripts indicate when a script should be activated
Related to the concept of Frames (Minsky) which was earlier and for more static structures (e.g. a room). Scripts more like a big verb dictionary, Frames more like one for nouns.
What information does the writer expect us to infer?
Are we likely to have both in a predetermined script?
How do when know when a story has stopped following a script? (Compare: how do we know when the person we are talking to has changed the subject--some people never notice!)
Skims new story to identify appropriate script.
Then tries to answer expectations.
Connected to UPI wire service.
The pilot described as one of the country’s most experienced, did not report any trouble in a brief radio conversation before the crash.
44 people were killed when an airplane crashed into a mountain in Italy today.
Part of the aim of research on Script as was to find a way of giving a program the same knowledge that humans use to understand a story--and Script theory was very influential in Psychology.
Similarly, in research on Expert Systems, aim is to capture, and apply, the knowledge that human experts have.
And in earlier examples, e.g. GPS, idea was to mimic human problem solving ability.
Although our changed conception of intelligence now is less human-based e.g. perhaps a bee is capable of intelligent behaviour.
But if we are concerned to emulate humans, we need to find out how humans think, if we think psychology has ways of telling us that reliably
SHRDLU, and blocks microworld. Domain-specific knowledge (as opposed to domain-general knowledge).
Understood substantial subset of English by representing and reasoning about a very restricted domain.
Had knowledge of microworld, (but no real understanding).
But program too complex to be extended to real world.
Expert systems: also relied on depth of knowledge of constrained domain.
But commercially exploitable. ‘Real’ applications.
General realisation that programs that performed well within limits of microworlds, could not capture complexity of everyday human reasoning.
Remember that SHRDLU would have to process AN INTERESTING BOOK by accessing all the books it knew in its database and all the interesting things!
Hubert Dreyfus (1972): criticism of idea that reasoning and intelligence could be captured by logical rules.
Weizenbaum (1976): pointing out that his ELIZA ‘had come close to passing Turing Test.(!) Humans too ready to attribute intelligence to unintelligent devices. Risk of oversold programs.
But some of this was just breast beating for profit (Weizenbaum’s Computer Power and Human Reason was Reader’s Digest Book of the Month!). Overselling how much one had done even while repenting!
Rich and Knight (1991) Artificial Intelligence, McGraw-Hill, Inc. Chapter 4.
Cawsey, A. (1997) Essentials of Artificial Intelligence, Prentice-Hall. (see also web reference on course page)
Russell and Norvig (1995) Artificial Intelligence: A modern approach. Chapter 3.
BUT a few problems where (rule driven) expert systems can perform as well as experts.
And even in the absence of claims that expert systems think like humans, these may well be a useful tools.
Probably work best when used as consultant or aide to human expert or novice.
Examples are medical diagnostic systems, optimal layout systems for space, and scheduling algorithms. Feigenbaum’s DENDRAL at Stanford predicts chemical compounds.
Dreyfus: points out ways in which AI theorists have overclaimed about what they can do.
e.g. Feigenbaum claims that ‘DENDRAL has been in use for many years at university and industrial chemical labs around the world’.
But ‘..when we called several university and industrial sites that do mass spectroscopy, we were surprised to find that none of them use DENDRAL..’
Dreyfus: Programming attempts to capture ordinary, or common sense knowledge and reasoning ability are doomed to failure.
Such knowledge cannot be captured by programs because it is too contextual and open-ended.
For Dreyfus, the real expert is not following rules
Weak AI 1: Applications – trying to perform tasks that would require intelligence if performed by humans.
Weak AI 2: Modelling human cognition
Expert Systems sometimes do better than human experts. e.g. Buchanan, 1982, MYCIN did better than panel of experts in evaluating ten selected meningitis cases.
But expert systems benefit from being applied in an area where computer can exploit an ability to follow rules.
Expert systems: good at domain-specific knowledge, bad at domain-independent.
PUFF knows nothing about medical complaints except conditions of the lung (i.e. knowledge very specific), and may not even know whether lungs are above or below knees (example of common knowledge about human anatomy).
Does that matter?
Would we care if it diagnosed us efficiently?
Why are we obsessed with being a human whole?
From Lenat and Guha (1990) (in Rich and Knight, 1991, Artificial Intelligence)
System: How old is the patient?
Human: (looking at his 1957 chevrolet) 33
System: Are there any spots on the patients body?
Human: (noticing rust spots) Yes.
System: What colour are the spots?
System: The patient has measles (probability 0.9)
More like ‘automated reference manuals’ (Copeland, 1993).
Human experts can lose expertise.
Ease of transfer of artificial expertise.
No effect of emotion in artificial expertise.
Expert systems are a low cost alternative – expensive to develop but cheap to operate.
Lack of creativity, not adaptive, lack sensory experience, narrow focus, and no commonsense knowledge (or meta-knowledge).
Winograd (Shrdlu’s programmer)
‘..There is a danger inherent in the label ‘expert system’. When we talk of a human expert we connote someone whose depth of understanding serves not only to solve specific well-formulated problems, but also to put them into a larger context. We distinguish between experts and idiot savants. Calling a program an expert is misleading….’
Can lead to inappropriate expectations
But may be useful if users can be educated about proper expectations (are people getting used to limited machines?)
Summaries of pulmonary function diagnosis of particular patient. One by human expert, other by expert system (PUFF).
Conclusions: the low diffusing capacity, in combination with obstruction and a high total lung capacity is consistent with a diagnosis of emphysema. Although bronchodilators were only slightly useful in this one case, prolonged use may prove beneficial to the patient.
PULMONARY FUNCTION DIAGNOSIS: MODERATELY SEVERE OBSTRUCTIVE AIRWAYS DISEASE. EMPHYSEMATOUS TYPE.
PULMONARY FUNCTION DIAGNOSIS: OB-STRUCTIVE AIRWAYS DISEASE, MODERATELY SEVERE EMPHYSEMATOUS TYPE.
e.g. finding holes in knowledge and prompting expert to fill them.
AND/OR checking for consistency in knowledge
OR Alternative to interviewing expert: looking at sample problem and solutions, and inferring its own rules.
e.g. bank’s problem of deciding whether to approve a loan. Instead of interviewing loan oficers, look at past loans, and try to generate loans that will maximise number of good loans in the future.
New knowledge domain can be entered, and make use of same rule mechanisms.
How important is it to have systems that are commercially viable, and made use of in the real world?
Would you be happy to rely on a medical Expert System instead of a doctor?
Also on heuristics operating on the knowledge
Knowledge-base: need to find a way of representing knowledge. MYCIN: production rules.
Also need to draw appropriate inferences – inference-engine.
Need to work out what knowledge is appropriate, and to get it into the knowledge-base.
Based on protocol analysis (GPs pioneered this) : human subjects encouraged to think aloud as they solved problems. Protocols later analysed to reveal concepts and procedures employed.
Protocol analysis used alongside Logic Theorist by Newell and Simon.
Interaction between expert system builder, knowledge engineer, and human experts in some problem area.
Some computational psychologists (e.g. Schvaneveldt) used networks to represent knowledge elicited as associations of concepts.
Alternative to time-consuming and expensive knowledge engineering.
Evaluation depends entirely on task for which ES are designed.
If they function as assistants (like DENDRAL) we need only that they do not miss any solutions with respect to given set of constraints, and take a reasonable length of time.
If like MYCIN they generate whole solutions, we need evaluation against human experts (or rival expert systems).
Comparison to experts: need to follow experimental procedures, i.e. so raters don’t know which are human and which are computer’s solutions.
DENDRAL: used as expert’s assistant, rather than stand alone expert. Heuristic search technique constrained by knowledge of human expert.
‘…supports hundreds of international users every day, assisting in structure elucidation problems for such things as antibiotics and impurities in manufactured chemicals..’ (Jackson, 1990)
Suggested reasons (Jackson, 1990)
Expert system which attempts to recommend appropriate therapies for patients with bacterial infections.
Four part decision process:
IF the identity of the organism is pseudomonas THEN therapy should be selected from among the following drugs:
(decimal numbers show prob. of arresting growth of pseudomonas).
e.g. MYCIN rule
then there is suggestive evidence (0.7) that the identity of the organism is staphylococcus.
Complex interactions of rules gives high level of performance.
- at level of human specialists in blood infections (and much better than GPs) (Shortliffe, 1976).
The UK NHS is said to be shifting to ‘evidence based medicine’ and is VERY short of experts, so be optimistic!
THEN there is evidence (0.4) that the identity of the organism is pseudomonas.
Has top level goal
IF (1) there is an organism which requires therapy, and (2) consideration has been given to any other organisms requiring therapy
THEN compile a list of possible therapies, and determine the best one in this list.
These rules used to reason backward to the clinical data (backward chaining).
Possible bacteria causing infection are considered in turn.
MYCIN attempts to prove whether they are involved.
DENDRAL project, began at Stanford University (USA) in 1965.
Feigenbaum and Lederberg.
Aim: to determine the molecular structure of an unknown organic compound.
Analysed data from mass spectrometer.
Mass spectrometer – bombards chemical sample with beam of electrons, causing compound to fragment, and components to be rearranged.
But complex molecule can fragment in different ways; can only make predictions about which bonds will break.
Although there are constraints (i.e. has identified chemical formula of compound, and presence/absence of certain substructural features) still many possibilities.
DENDRAL planner can assist in decision about which constraints to impose.
Performance relevant data, formulated hypotheses about compound’s molecular structure, and tested hypotheses by way of further predictions.
Output was list of possible molecular compounds ranked in terms of decreasing plausibility.
DENDRAL (in 1960s) – beginning of divide between simulation of human behaviour, and trying to arrive at intelligence by any means available.
- Fault finding
- Manufacturing planning
Case specific data
Knowledge base editor
Inference engine – performs reasoning.
Two kept separate.
Normal method for representing knowledge in an expert system:
Often rules do not have certain conclusions: dealing with uncertainty.
Main approaches to knowledge representation in AI.
Expert system: program designed to replicate decision making process of human expert.
Basic idea: experts have a great deal of knowledge, and this knowledge could be provided in some formal manner to a program.
Rule 1: If coughing THEN add smoky
Rule 2: If wet and NOT raining THEN add burstpipe
Rule 3: If NOT coughing AND alarm-rings THEN ADD burglar
Rule 4: If smoky AND hot THEN ADD fire
Try to prove fire (R4)
Try to prove smoky and hot (R1 for smoky)
Are you coughing? – no (smoky fails, therefore fire fails)
Try to prove burst pipe (R2)
Are you getting wet? No (burst pipe fails)
Burglar? Not coughing (known) and alarm rings.
Is there an alarm ringing? Yes
I conclude there’s been a burglary.
SYSTEM: Are you coughing?
SYSTEM: Are you getting wet?
SYSTEM: Is there an alarm ringing?
SYSTEM: I’m trying to prove there has been a burglary. It has been established that it is not the case that you are coughing. Therefore, if there is an alarm ringing then we can conclude that there is a burglary. Is there an alarm ringing?
SYSTEM: I conclude that there has been a burglary.
SYSTEM: This follows from Rule 3: If NOT coughing and alarm-rings THEN ADD burglar. You told me that it is not the case that you are coughing. You told me that there is an alarm ringing.
Algorithm: To prove G
R1: IF smoky AND hot THEN ADD fire
R2: IF alarm-beeps THEN ADD smoky
R3: IF alarm-beeps THEN ADD ear-plugs
R4: IF fire THEN ADD switch-on-sprinklers
R5: IF smoky THEN ADD poor-visibility
Try to prove G1 switch-on-sprinklers
Matches Rule 4: try to prove G2 fire
Matches Rule 1: try to prove G3 smoky and G4 hot
G3 matches R2.
New goals G5: alarm beeps, G4: hot.
Goals satisfied (by F1 and F2):
THEREFORE sprinkler switched on.
If you know what the conclusion might be: backward chaining may be better.
e.g. start with goal to prove, like switch-on-sprinkler.
To prove goal G:
Facts held in working memory
Rule 1: IF hot AND smoky THEN ADD fire
Rule 2: IF alarm-beeps THEN ADD smoky
Rule 3: IF fire THEN ADD switch-on-sprinklers
Fact 1: alarm-beeps
Fact 2: hot
Rule 1: IF hot AND smoky THEN ADD fire
Rule 2: IF alarm-beeps then add smoky
Rule 3: IF fire THEN ADD switch-on-sprinklers
Rule 4: IF hot AND dry THEN switch on humidifier
Rule 5: IF fire THEN delete dry.
Fact 1: alarm-beeps
Fact 2: dry
Fact 3: hot
If Rule 4 chosen, humidifier switched on.
If Rule 2 chosen, then Rules 1, 3 and 5 apply, and humidifier never switched on.
Therefore, Forward chaining systems need conflict resolution strategies.
For example – we could prefer rules involving facts recently added to memory. Therefore, if Rule 2 fires, next rule is Rule 1 as smoky recently added.
Or could prioritise rules. Give Rule 4 a lower priority.
Increases flexibility and allows more complex facts:
e.g. Temperature (kitchen, hot) instead of hot
Could have Rule 6:
If Temperature (room, hot) AND
Environment (room, smoky),
Fact 6: Temperature (kitchen, hot)
Fact 7: Environment (kitchen, smoky)
Therefore Fire-in (Kitchen)
added to memory.
depends on how many possible hypotheses to consider.
If few, then backward chaining (e.g. MYCIN).
If many, then forward chaining (e. XCON).
Backward chaining also known as abduction,
the basic form of scientific explanation
(I.e. find some assumption that proves this fact true).
Two types of interpreter: forward chaining and backward chaining.
Forward chaining: Start with some facts, and use rules to draw new conclusions.
Backward chaining: Start with hypothesis (goal) to prove, and look for rules to prove that hypothesis.
Forward chaining: data-driven (alias bottom-up)
Backward chaining: goal-driven (alias top-down)