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Worksheet 6 Answers. Problem 1. P(ace) = 4/52 There are four 4’s out of 52 cards P(diamond) = 13/52 There are 13 diamonds P(ace of diamonds) = 1/52 There is only one ace of diamonds P(4 or 6) = 4/52 + 4/52 = 8/52 These are disjoint events
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Problem 1 • P(ace) = 4/52 There are four 4’s out of 52 cards • P(diamond) = 13/52 There are 13 diamonds • P(ace of diamonds) = 1/52 There is only one ace of diamonds • P(4 or 6) = 4/52 + 4/52 = 8/52 These are disjoint events • P(4 or club) = 4/52 + 13/52 – 1/52 = 16/52 Subtract overlap • P(red queen) = 2/52 • There are two red queens OR: • P(red AND queen) = P(red) x P(queen GIVEN red) = 26/52 x 2/26 • P(black and 10) = 2/52 Same argument • P(4 and 5) = 0 P(impossibility) = 0
Problem 2 • P(red) = 5/10 • P(green) = 3/10 • P(red or white) = 5/10 + 2/10 = 7/10 Disjoint • P(red AND white) = 0 One marble can’t be two colors • P(not green) = 1 – P(green) = 1 – 3/10 = 7/10
Problem 3 • P(both diamonds) = 13/52 x 13/52 = 1/16 Independent so multiply • P(same card) = 52/52 x 1/52 = 1/52 • P(both 3’s) = 4/52 x 4/52 = 1/169
Problem 4 • P(both diamonds) = 13/52 x 12/51 = .059 • P(d AND d) = P(d) x P(d GIVEN d) • P(both 3’s) = 4/52 x 3/51 = .005 • P(a pair) = 52/52 x 3/51 = 3/51 = .059
Problem 5 • P(A OR dress) = 37/118 + 54/118 – 24/118 = 67/118 • P(B or C) = 54/118 + 27/118 = 81/118 • P(blouse or A) = 64/118 + 37/118 – 13/118 = 88/118
Problem 6 • P(alcoholic and elevated) = 87/300 • OR: 100/300 x 87/100 • P(nonalcoholic) = 200/300 • P(nonalcoholic and normal) = 157/300 • OR: 200/300 x 157/200 • You can also get these answers with a tree diagram. Assign each branch its probability and multiply.
Problem 7 • P(m or p) = P(m) + P(p) – P(m and p) • .45 = .32 + .17 – x • x = .04
Problem 8 • Assume that a red ball was actually drawn. Then it came from box 1 OR from box 2. These are disjoint events, so add: • P(box 1 and red GIVEN box 1) = ½ x 2/3 = 1/3 • P(box 2 and red GIVEN box 2 ) = ½ x ¼ = 1/8 • So P(red) = 1/3 + 1/8 = 11/24
Problem 9 • P(b and w) = P(b) x P(w given b) • 15/56 = 3/8 x P • P = 5/7 • Note: The worksheet had a typo; it said that P(b and w) is 15/16; it should be 15/56
Problem 10 • There are 50 females, so P(y given f) = 8/50 • There are 60 no’s,so P(m given no) = 18/60
Problem 11 • The questions asks about “at least” probability, so find the complement: • What is the probability that NO ace is drawn? • P(no ace) = 48/52 x 47/51 x 46/50 x 45/49 • This evaluates to about 0.72 • P(at least one ace) = 1 – 0.72 = 0.28 • Note: This can be solved affirmatively with a complicated set of “and” and “or” calculations. Note, for example, that there is more than one way to get three aces, etc.
Problem 12 • P(at least one shared birthday) = 1 – P(no shared birthdays) • So how can we find the probability that there are no shared birthdays? • Assume the 37 people enter the room one at a time • The first person HAS a birthday, with probability 365/365 • The next person has a probability of 364/365 of having a different birthday • The next has a probability of 363/365 of not matching the first two people, an so on. • This results in a group of 37 factors • Notice these are independent AND probabilities, so we multiply