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Jobs and Crime

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  1. Jobs and Crime

  2. A theme for this course • US and CA criminal justice systems will be case studies, but are there larger issues about the public sector?

  3. Public Sector Health Safety Civics Education

  4. What determines the quality of life in a nation, a state or a locality? • The distribution of GDP between the public and private sectors?

  5. Total Tax Burden As % of GDP, 2004Google Forbes overall tax burden

  6. Public Vs. Private Goods Production Function Contraint Labor for Private Goods Private Goods Labor for Public Goods Labor, Private

  7. Production Possibility Frontier Output, Private L, Private Output, Public L, public

  8. Production Possibility Frontier Output, Private L, Private Output, Public L, public

  9. Private Mexico US Canada UK Sweden Public

  10. Production Possibility Frontier Does the global economy Cause a bias towards Private instead of public Goods and services? PRIVATE Inefficient PUBLIC

  11. Production Possibility Frontier Does being the world’s Policeman cause a bias Away from other public Goods and services? Public Goods: Defense Inefficient Public Goods: Health

  12. Expenditures Per Pupil

  13. Production Possibility Frontier Which would you rather do (1) keep the 30% of state prisoners who are pot-heads locked up, or (2) educate your kids? Public Goods: Prison Operation Inefficient Public Goods: education

  14. US Politics • “It’s the economy stupid!” • Issues in 2008 • Human capital and education • The family and social conservatives • Huck & Chuck • Mitt

  15. 31.0/33.8~8.6 decline 7.3% 31.0%

  16. 5.8% 7.3/5.8 ~ 26% rise 33.8%

  17. The Economy and Crime • Is crime affected by the business cycle? • Do economic factors cause crime?

  18. Where is the economy headed?Survey of Professional Forecastershttp://www.phil.frb.org/files/spf/survq407.html

  19. Governor’s Budget Summary 2008-09 Jan 1990 Jan 2007

  20. California Forecasts & Record: Umemployment rate: CA Dept. of Finance

  21. Outline • Seriousness Survey • What can we learn from the survey? • Crime File • Victims • Jobs and Crime • Jobs and Crime • Why do some people get involved with crime?

  22. Class Survey 2009 Vs. Sample 2008 • Scoring Ten Behaviors • 103 responses in ’09, 97 responses in ‘08

  23. SERIOUSNESS SURVEY RATE THE SERIOUSNESS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING BEHAVIORS ON A SCALE FROM ZERO( LEAST SERIOUS) TO TEN( MOST SERIOUS): MEDIAN ‘08 ‘09 1. HOMICIDE _10 10__ 2. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL) _ 9 10__ 3. FORCIBLE RAPE _ 10 10__ 4. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE _ 8 7__ 5. SELLING HEROIN _ 7 7__ 6. AUTO THEFT _ 6 6__ 7. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000 _ 5 6__ 8. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION _ 4 4__ 9. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA _ 2 1__ 10. SNIFFING GLUE _ 1 1__

  24. Conclusions • Consistency from year to year • Triage is possible: we can separate the more serious behaviors from the less serious behaviors

  25. Distribution of Homicide Scores 90 Median: 52nd Person Six 8’s One 1 One 6 Four 9’s One 7

  26. Mode = 10, most likely number Median = 10, score of 49th or middle person

  27. Conclusions • Consistency from year to year • Triage is possible: we can separate the more serious behaviors from the less serious behaviors • For serious behaviors, a clear majority view • For example, for homicide 102 out of 103 score it between 6 and 10, while 100 out of 103 score it between 8 and 10

  28. Central Limit theorem in Action 103 50 6 12 25

  29. 2.5% 2.5% mean

  30. 59 25

  31. Mode: 10 Median: 10

  32. The Vocal Minority: sixteen score Pot high 5 4 3 3 1

  33. Mode: 1 Median: 2

  34. Center of the Scores Distribution • Mode: most likely • Median: middle person • Average: sum of scores divided by total number of people

  35. John Tukey: Box Plot for Sniffing Glue Econ 160 W 2009 Fight for 14 3’s 73 folks score as 2 0r below Median 16 folks score as 4 or above

  36. Conclusions • Consistency from year to year • Triage is possible: we can separate the more serious behaviors from the less serious behaviors • For serious behaviors, a clear majority view • For example, for homicide 102 out of 103 score it between 6 and 10, while 100 out of 103 score it between 8 and 10 The less serious behaviors are more controversial!

  37. Dispersion of Scores Distribution • Measures of dispersion • Standard deviation • Inter-quartile range • Range: Maximum - Minimum

  38. SERIOUSNESS SURVEY RATE THE SERIOUSNESS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING BEHAVIORS ON A SCALE FROM ZERO( LEAST SERIOUS) TO TEN( MOST SERIOUS): Minimum, Maximum 1. HOMICIDE _2, 10 2. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL) _0, 10 3. FORCIBLE RAPE _6, 10 4. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE _2, 10 5. SELLING HEROIN _0, 10 6. AUTO THEFT _3, 10 7. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000 _0, 9 8. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION _0, 10 9. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA _0, 10 10. SNIFFING GLUE _0, 8

  39. The more serious the behavior, the less disagreement about policy

  40. Policy is more difficult Policy is easier

  41. Bureau of Justice Statistics, Report to the Nation One more step: converting seriousness scores to a metric (years of sentence or Loss rate of $) The Alternative p.170 The Economics of Crime Control, Ch. 4

  42. Source: $ 1.54 Million (1990), Orley Ashenfelter, Princeton, Based on highway safety

  43. Types of Crime • Motivation: self-interest, greed • Street Crimes: robbery, burglary, auto theft, larceny • White Collar: embezzlement, tax evasion, check fraud, telephone fraud • Status Offenses: runaway, truant, vagrant, beyond control of parents • Black Market: gambling, prostitution,drugs

  44. Types of Crime • Motivation: Hate, Rage • Street Crimes: homicide, aggravated assault, rape • Crimes Against Public Order: vandalism, terrorism • Hate Crimes • Columbine High • James Byrd: dragging death in Texas • Jewish Community Center in Granada Hills

  45. Jobs and Crime

  46. Questions About Crime • Does the Business Cycle Affect Crime Rates? • Does an Individual’s Life Cycle Affect Crime Rates? • Why do some people live socially unproductive lives?