Sevilla 2007

1. DON’T FORGET TO USE TAHOMA FONT Sevilla 2007 B9 – How can cities prepare: adaptation and local decision-making UKCIP presentation 22 March 2007 Liz Greenhalgh UKCIP

2. The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) “helps organisations to assess how they might be affected by climate change, so that they can prepare for its impacts”. • set up by UK Government in 1997 • funded by Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) • based at University of Oxford works through: • stakeholder-led research • partnerships • programmes, and • capacity building provides common tools and datasets. all resources are freely available on request, or over the internet www.ukcip.org.uk

3. UKCIP goal and aims

4. UKCIP as a ‘boundary organisation’ Facilitates relationships between three groups of key actors

5. UKCIP methods and principles • helps build adaptive capacity in stakeholder organisations • uses a two-way process of knowledge transfer with stakeholders • uses a common set of tools • provides intelligent access to datasets e.g. climate scenarios • does not undertake research but sits on steering groups • gives guidance and support for partnerships and studies • assists dissemination of research and project outcomes • develops and refines new tools with stakeholders all services are provided free of charge to users

6. Global temperature (1960 - 2100)

7. Unavoidable temperature rise

8. Still some choice now

9. The type of 2003 summer could be normal by 2040s and cool by 2080s observations Medium-High emissions (modelled) European summer temperatures Source: Peter Stott, Hadley Centre

10. Mitigation and adaptation • Mitigation of climate change slow down global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions • Adaptation to climate change respond to the predicted impacts of climate change Responding to ‘weather related risks’ and ‘climate risks’ may be more useful language to consider impacts and adaptation

11. Climate change responses Not alternatives!

12. Climate sensitivity, vulnerability & adaptation New critical threshold Vulnerability Critical threshold Climate variable New coping range Coping range Past Present Time Lag Decision to adapt Implementation of adaptation Planning time horizon Future

13. Changes in annual average temperature in UK

14. Climate change scenarios: UKCIP02eg changes in seasonal average precipitation in UK Winter Summer

15. Fewer winter deaths, lower heating bills • Comfort in buildings, vehicles, and outside • (Urban heat island effect: ~+2 °C) • (London Underground deviation: +2.7° to +5.0°C) • Heat effects on elderly, vulnerable • Disease vectors and food poisoning • Mediterranean work patterns? • Outdoor culture? Temperature: Human Systems

16. Tarmac (roads, runways) soften • Expansion allowances exceeded: • rails buckle • wires sag • Electrical equipment fails • Cooling systems overload • Cement sets too fast Temperature: Infrastructure

17. Wetter Winters • River flooding • Storm drains backing up • Soil water-logging • Damage to property from driving rain • Soil loss (water erosion) • Fungal growth/disease

18. Drier Summers • Irrigation water shortages • Conflicts over water use • Not enough water to dilute pollution • Contraction of clay and peat soils • Soil won’t absorb rainfall • Soil erosion by wind • Wild fires

19. Sea level rise • Global sea level rise from expansion and glacier melt • Continues after global temperature rise stops • 19-79 cm this century in UK • River flow, high tide and storm-surge combine • Thames Estuary 2100 plans • Non-floating ice in world has 80M potential sea level rise

20. Health Impacts in UK Health Delivery System Human health • Cold-related deaths down • Heat-related deaths up • Food poisoning up • Vector & water-borne diseases may increase • Malaria could re-establish • Air pollution down, but summer ozone? • Buildings, Staff, Equipment. Drug storage, Patients? • Treasury plans to spend £4B+ on capital projects this year

21. Mainstreaming adaptation: nationally UK • Climate Change Bill • Assessment of risk of climate change to the UK (impacts and vulnerabilities) • Stern report for the Treasury • Costs of inaction outweigh costs of action • Adaptation Policy Framework • Cross government framework, priority areas for action • Protecting major infrastructure • Ensuring sustainable communities • Assigning roles and responsibilities

22. Public assets (Hospitals, Schools, Offices, Land, Bridges, Roads, Railways, etc.) • UK Public valued at £800 Billion • If lifetime = 100 years, spend £8 Billion/year to replace • Lifetime of new assets will see significant climate change • Will they be fit for purpose throughout their lifetime? • Who ensures they are built to be so? • Who bears the risk that they may not be?

23. Mainstreaming adaptation: locally UK • Impacts of climate change will be felt in different ways in different places • Difficult decisions mean citizens must be involved • Challenge for the process of local government • Local Authorities will play a critical role as deliverers of adaptation with a direct democratic engagement with citizens

24. Regional partnerships Scotland Scoping Studies and Summary Reports have now been completed for all of the UK regions. These studies identified regional climate impacts and recommended strategic actions. North East England Yorkshire and Humberside Northern Ireland East Midlands North West England Eastern Region West Midlands Wales London South East England South West England

25. Three facets to Local Authorities • Corporate Role • Commission, own & manage assets • Employ many people • Have pension fund investments • Service Provider • Planning • Environment • Waste collection and disposal • Community Leader • ‘Shaper of place’ • Duty of care • Welfare of community

26. UKCIP tools and resources

27. UKCIP: Tools and Resources Regional partnerships Sectoral partnerships • Climate change scenarios • Socio-economic Scenarios • Adaptation Wizard • Risk Management Tool • Costing Tool • Adaptation Case Studies • BACLIAT • LCLIP • NDAP • All free on the website

28. Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change • The Nottingham Declaration is a voluntary pledge to address the issues of climate change. It represents a high-level, broad statement of commitment that any council can make to its own community. • 100 councils signed the First Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change launched in 2000 • Second National Councils’ Conference on Climate Change was held December 2005 to launch new version of the Nottingham Declaration • More than 200 councils have signed to date

29. Nottingham Declaration Action Pack • The Nottingham Declaration Action Pack was released July 2006 • The purpose of the Pack is to provide online guidance for the production of LA (or LSP) climate change action plans • Ambition to become the standard resource for guiding local authority responses to climate change • Provides a project management framework with clear milestones • Offers the potential for auditing progress • Flexible and adaptable allowing both comprehensive, authority-wide approaches, or focus on specific service areas or corporate functions • Provides links to other useful resources

30. Mitigation Mitigation Mitigation Mitigation Mitigation Mitigation Mitigation Mitigation Mitigation Mitigation Mitigation Mitigation Mitigation Mitigation Mitigation Corporate role Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation Service provider Community leader NDAP (Nottingham Declaration Action Pack) Mitigation and adaptation Getting Started Assess Current and Likely Future Situation Develop Strategic Approach Prepare an Action Plan Implementation The action pack considers both mitigation and adaptation

31. Getting started common elements to all threads • Obtain Senior Management and Political Support • Appoint climate adaptation lead • Appoint team and agree approach • Allocate Resources • Undertake initial training

32. Getting started Obtain Senior Management and Political Support Experience demonstrates that the support of Elected Members, senior managers and key staff is vital to the success of local authority work on climate change There are many possible routes: • Support from the Finance Director has proved to be key to many successes • Coventry CC got climate change on the agenda via their Risk Management Committee • Cardiff CC have embarked on a wide-ranging plan with high level political support • Devon CC appointed a high-level Climate Change Officer

33. Getting started • Appoint climate adaptation lead • Ensure that climate change is part of someone’s job description – it is difficult to attain success unless climate change is part of someone’s ‘day job’ • Appoint team and agree approach • Ensure that all members of the team have time available to participate in the project

34. Current vulnerability to weather eventsOxford Eastern By-Pass: October 11th 2006

35. A Local Climate Impact Profile (LCLIP) An LCLIP will help a Local Authority to understand better: • the impacts and consequences of current extreme weather events • council’s and others responses to such events • the information that will be needed to prepare for future climate Offers a simple entry point to what can seem complex data: • based on explicitly local impacts • relates real consequences to real weather events • based on popular media reports, not challenging science Provides evidence: • to approach senior management • to determine thresholds • to drive prioritisation and preparedness in the organisation

36. Oxfordshire County Council impacts database – a summary The findings from incidents between 1996 and 2006

37. 2006 Headline messages - Road Damage High temperatures 34.8oC on 19th July create ‘sticky’ conditions on more than 37 roads over two day period. Responses • Extensive diversions in place. • Gritters sent out to treat damaged roads. • ‘Slippery road’ signs erected until surface texture can be restored. • Heat damage initial estimates £3.6m, and expected to rise when full costs calculated. • Consequences: • Some roads permanently damaged by heat • Some roads impassable so road closures across county

38. 2006 Headline messages – School Closures Heat-wave – July 06. Some schools recorded temperatures of more than 36°C (97°F) in classrooms. Consequences • Temperature in some classrooms exceed 36°C Responses • 6 schools closed for either an afternoon, one or two days. • Head teachers decided that pupils should be sent home. • Over 970 students affected. • "Overiding responsibility is to make sure pupils are safe…If such a decision is made, parents will be told at the first opportunity and reminded to listen to notices via local radio stations." J.M. Director Children, Young People and Families. Peers Technology College Clanfield Primary

39. Share headline messages with senior officers Senior officers: • often do not appreciate the extent to which their service areas are affected by extreme weather events • need to understand that operational staff are more aware of weather vulnerabilities, than staff dealing with contractual or strategic issues • realise that working knowledge of effects of past weather events is often informal rather than systematically recorded and monitored

40. Determine thresholds for Service areas • Follow up sessions with professional/operational managers helps to extend the understanding of the weather sensitivity • Establish indicative thresholds – at departmental level consider the detail of the weather conditions that triggered the problem • Set up systematic monitoring arrangements to have better data for next 5 years

41. Use thresholds to explore future climateDaily max. temperature probability of exceedance Central England summer temperature: Baseline (1961-90) 31oC has 1% chance [I day per summer] 2080s, medium-high emissions 31oC has 11% chance [11 days per summer] 39oC has 1% chance

42. Networks… • Professional / technical people with specialist knowledge are comparing impacts and exploring solutions within their areas of expertise. • Networks within and across local government • Local business networks • Local strategic partnerships (health, police, businesses,…)

43. Practical lessons learned • elaborate climate science and modelling outputs may not be the best route through which to engage many types of stakeholders • it can be more effective to start with an organisation’s current vulnerability to weather: eg. recent weather events and their impacts • the main drivers for organisations to adapt come from reducing risk and exploiting new opportunties: so we use the language of ‘climate risk’ • the UKCIP toolkit will be further improvement to be of practical use to the full range of stakeholders by developing, trialling with stakeholders • Knowledge transfer is a two-way process: UKCIP advises stakeholders on climate and weather impacts: stakeholders explore adaptation strategies: the new knowledge then becomes a wider resource for all.

44. www.ukcip.org.uk