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Seeing Dark Energy 10 Years Later

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  1. Space Telescope Science Institute Johns Hopkins University Seeing Dark Energy 10 Years Later

  2. MODELS OF EXPANDING UNIVERSE - 10 YRS AGO g

  3. High-Z Supernovae Team In 1995 the High-z Team was formed: “To Measure the Cosmic Deceleration of the Universe with Type Ia Supernovae” It was expected that the degree of deceleration would reveal mass & fate of Universe To measure changes in the expansion rate, we sought the highest-redshift supernovae to compare to their nearby brethren we had already collected

  4. Negative Mass? This is the first moment when I had indication of discovery. This sign is really saying negative deceleration which means acceleration! Adam’s Lab book, Key Page, Fall 1997: testing… precision… accuracy answer This negative sign represents 70% of Universe! EUREKA! It was the Fall of 1997… I was leading a study of all supernova data to date…. “Eureka” Moment from 10 yrs ago came when calculating the mass of Universe causing the deceleration I assumed was present in the data.

  5. Odds are… Yes!!! At least 99.73% sure that Einstein’s Cosmological Constant is needed! The Cosmological Constant (Dark Energy) Enters… Days later … What does this mean? Instead of negative mass, would Einstein’s Cosmological Constant explain apparent acceleration? After cross-checks, time to publish this!

  6. THE ACCELERATING UNIVERSE SNe Ia near and far indicate level of acceleration equating to ~70% dark energy in Universe! High-z,1998 SCP, 1999

  7. Fainter Relative Brightness Brighter IS THIS THE RIGHT INTERPRETATION? Could supernova just be fainter in past or obscured by dust? Need SNe at z>1. In 2002, I formed a new team (Higher-z Team) to use ACS on HST to find out. average supernova z=redshift

  8. HST is uniquely able to measure Supernovae at z>1 From 2002-2007 we measured 25 new SNe Ia at z>1 z=1.34

  9. Fainter Era of Dark Energy Era of Dark Matter Relative Brightness Brighter CONFIRMATION COMES AT HIGH-REDSHIFT Yes, supernovae were right! First detection of “turn-over” i.e., transition of dark matter to dark energy dominance . Riess et al. 2004, 2007 Riess et al. 2004, 2007 average supernova

  10. A NEW CLUE: DARK ENERGY IN YOUNG UNIVERSE decelerating accelerating Hubble detects presence of Dark Energy 9 billion years ago, when Universe was still losing tug of war (via gravity) with dark matter Supportive of stable, Einstein-type of Dark Energy

  11. CONCORDANCE! Now, to lock down hub, we need to tighten the spokes… Wheel of Dark Energy-related Measurements Hubble Constant SN Ia from Ground z<0.8 SN Ia from Space z>0.8 Weak Lensing High-z BAO Dark* Energy Energy Large-scale Structure SDSS BAO *w(z)=p/c2, F  (+3p) X-ray Clusters WMAP SZ-effect, strong lensing, velocity fields, age tests, ISW effect, etc Present/Future

  12. NEW LADDER (100 Mpc) OLD DISTANCE LADDER (100 Mpc) 11% error ____ ____ 3% 4% error ____ ____ 3% 0% Hubble Flow Hubble Flow 4% SN Ia hosts, Metal poor to Metal rich 5% Fast to Slow Cepheids 4% Ground to HST 5% Anchor: LMC 3% Anchor:NGC4258 HUBBLE CONSTANT: REBUILD DISTANCE LADDER Eliminating noisy steps: 1) no change in telescope; 2) no change in Cepheid type; 3) more precise anchor

  13. Pan-STARRS: Largest Search for NEOs and SNe Telescope@Haleakula Gigapixel Camera 2008-2011 Largest digital camera 1.4 gigapixels over 7 square degree field of view Can survey 3/4ths of sky every week Expect ~10,000 SNe Ia in 3 years first light August 2007 first light June 2007

  14. JDEM FINALIST: ADEPT BAO + SNe + Lensing* ADEPT is the sequel to WMAP, for dark energy ADEPT collects 3D positions for 100 million galaxies to measure BAO from 1<z<2 to its natural limit (whole sky) ADEPT will collect 1000 SNe Ia z>0.8 from space to connect to ground (Pan-STARRS) *ADEPT provides 108 spectroscopic redshifts to enable LSST and Pan-STARRS lensing measurements

  15. Big Bang NEW TOOL: BARYON ACOUSTIC OSCILLATIONS Fluctuations on all scales, but characteristic scale provides a measuring rod BAO: smallest systematic errors, simplest physics, angles easier to measure than fluxes, shapes 1 deg 0.3 Myr WMAP Fluctuation Spectrum (WMAP). of Baryons+photons via CMB T 5 Gyr 10 Gyr 500 Mly ADEPT 12 Gyr Fluctuation Spectrum (SDSS), of Baryons via galaxies

  16. Future Ground Space SNe Current ADEPT The Quest w(z) For Dark energy equation of state: P = w r c2 (a) Is w = constant? (b) Changing with time/redshift? (c) Or is w irrelevant, because GR is wrong? Options have HUGE implications for fundamental physics

  17. SUMMARY We discovered accelerating expansion and dark energy 10 years ago. SNe Ia at z>1 from HST confirmed we are on the right track. We will better constrain dark energy by tightening a spate of different measurements Most promising include: Hubble constant from 11% to 4%, Pan-STARRS ADEPT, a JDEM enabled by WMAP, measures BAO over the whole sky + Space SNe is very competitive, least expensive

  18. Communications with the Team A. Filippenko, Berkeley, CA, 1/10/1998 10:11am: “Adam showed me fantastic plots a few days before he left for his wedding. For right now, our data imply a non-zero cosmological constant at the 95% confidence level. Who knows? This might be the right answer. And I would hate to see the other group publish it first.” [He advocates for a rapid, short publication] B. Leibundgut Garching, Germany, 1/11/1998: 4:19am “Concerning a fast-track article on a cosmological constant I'd like to ask Adam or anybody else in the group, if they feel prepared enough to defend the answer we get. There is no point in writing an article, if we are not very sure we are getting the right answer.” B. Schmidt, Australia, 1/11/1998: 7:13pm [Advocates for more thorough, comprehensive paper] “It is true that the new SNe say that [the cosmological constant] is greater than zero … but how confident are we in this result? I find it very perplexing…Let’s put out a paper we can be proud of---quickly.” 1/12/1998 [R. Schommer (Chile), M. Philips (Chile), J. Tonry (Hawaii), C. Hogan (Seattle, WA), A. Clochiatti (Chile) ] each write in advocating a comprehensive paper Kirshner Santa Barbara, CA 1/12/1998 10:18am: “I am worried that the first cut looks like you might need [the cosmological constant]. In your heart you know this is wrong, though your head tells you that you don’t care and you’re just reporting the observations…It would be silly to say ‘we MUST have a nonzero [cosmological constant]’ only to retract it next year.” A. Filippenko 1/12/1998, 12:02 pm[Still supports rapid publication] “If we are wrong in the end, then so be it. But at least we ran in the race.” Riess Berkeley, CA 1/12/1998 6:36pm: “The results are very surprising, shocking even. I have avoided telling anyone about them for a few reasons. I wanted to do some cross checks (I have) and I wanted to get further into writing the results up before [the other team] got wind of it…The data require a nonzero cosmological constant! Approach these results not with your heart or head but with your eyes. We are observers after all! I think I can answer the group's dilemma about a quick kill paper vs a detailed explanation…well I did it already before the wedding. At this point, a detailed paper is as easy to do (and fast) as a letter so lets do it right. …start thinking of reasons that the distant SNe Ia could be dimmer. N. Suntzeff Chile 1/13/1998 1:47pm “I really encourage you to work your butt off on this. Everyone is right. We need to be careful and publish good stuff with enough discussion to make it believable to ourselves…If you are really sure that the [cosmological constant] is not zero—my god, get it out! I mean this seriously—you probably never will have another scientific result that is more exciting come your way in your lifetime. Are you up for it? I have no doubt you can be.”

  19. THE ACCELERATING UNIVERSE Universe now expanding ~20% faster than 5 billion years ago Universe now expanding ~20% faster than 5 billion years ago X X g