Thesis Topics Prof. Tom Murphree Dept. of Meteorology, NPS murphree@nps

1. Thesis Topics Prof. Tom Murphree Dept. of Meteorology, NPS murphree@nps.edu • Two Main Topic Areas • Climatology in Support of DoD Operations • METOC Metrics: Analysis of the Performance and Operational Impacts of DoD Forecasts • For both areas, we: • Address both meteorological and oceanographic issues • Apply science to help meet operational DoD requirements

2. Climatology --- Statement of Problem • Warfighters not getting full benefit of proven operational climo because: • 1. DoD climatology has fallen behind the times and relies almost exclusively on long term mean climatology. • 2. This is not sufficient for DoD planning and operations. Need to also account for climate variations and climate forecasting. • 3. Information often not: (a) up to date; and/or (b) available at sufficient spatial / temporal resolution for area or period of interest. • 4. Very relevant climo information, methods, and products not yet readily available to AFW and METOC personnel or their customers. • a. not yet adapted for military use • b. no central, easily accessible source • 5. Difficult to translate climo info into environmental impacts on operations. Such translations are rarely provided in off-the-shelf climo products. • 6. METOC units must interpret and tailor available climo information to fit their individual needs. • a. too time consuming and labor intensive • b. much of this tailoring would be more efficient and • effective if done by experts at a central location • c. units’ time is better spent tailoring state of the art climo • to the needs of combatant commanders Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Oct 05

3. Climatology - Approach to Solving Problem Adapt and apply state of the art climo methods and products for use by combatant commanders. That is, adapt and apply methods and products being used in civilian operational climatology. See examples of this approach on following slides. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Oct 05

4. Impacts of Climate Variations on Tropical Cyclone Activity: East Asia and Western North Pacific, October H L NPS Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Oct 05 L H L H H L Upper tropospheric height anomalies associated with El Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) periods. These height anomalies indicate anomalies in steering flow for tropical cyclones (TCs)., with more recurving TCs during EN and more straight runners during LN. This indicates that, for example, Taiwan (Korea) is more likely to be hit by TCs during LN (EN) years. NPS researchers have shownthat TC formation sites, tracks, and intensities are affected by EN and LN climate variations that are not accounted for in LTM climatologies. Figures from Ford, B., 2000. El Nino and La Nina Events, and Tropical Cyclones: Impacts and Mechanisms. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree.

5. Impacts of Climate Variations on Joint Operations: Straits of Taiwan, October Green = favorable for indicated operations / mission Yellow = marginal for indicated operation / mission *Conditions slightly improved for NE Taiwan due to decreased monsoonal flow. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Oct 05 Slide from NPS climatology course

6. Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop State of the Art Climo Products: Arabian Gulf, Winter 1 cm/s Upper Ocean Currents, Nov-Mar, Long Term Mean Note LTM inflow in Gulf Of Oman. From Ford and Murphree (2005) NPS Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Oct 05

7. Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products: Arabian Gulf, Winter 3 cm/s Upper Ocean Current Anomalies, Nov-Mar, During La Nina Periods Note reversal of LTM inflow in Gulf Of Oman. From Ford and Murphree (2005) NPS Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Oct 05

8. Intraseasonal-Interannual Climate Anomalies: Characterization and Development of Forecasts Above Normal Precip L H Below Normal Convection Anomalies and Mechanisms that Lead to Above Normal Precipitation in SWA • Figure shows low level anomaly pattern during periods of above normal precip in SWA. • Pattern occurs during specific phases of El Nino/La Nina, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, Madden Julian Oscillation, and/or North Atlantic Oscillation. Example: much of 2004-05 winter. • Phase reversal  pattern reversal  mechanism reversal  below normal SWA precip. • Mechanisms involve teleconnections from tropics and midlatitudes to SWA. • ENLN, NAO, and MJO predictable at leads of one week to six months  SWA precip may be predictable on these time scales. Next step: develop forecasting systems based on IO-W Pacific convection. From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Oct 05

9. Climatological Impacts Forecasts for Operational Planning Sample Forecast Product: Impacts of MJO on SWA Operations Impact anomalies: red = worse than normal; white = no change; green = better than normal Operational thresholds from AFWA/TN-98/002 Revised 13 June 2003 From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer.

10. Use of Intraseasonal Climate Anomalies and Forecasts in Mission Planning Process Manas IAP c x v c x v Incirlik AB c x v Bagram AB Herat Kandahar c x v Slide from NPS climatology course - More southerly storm track will result in possible takeoff delays for tankers leaving Incirlik - Tankers leaving Incirlik will see increased turbulence over Iraq and the northern Persian Gulf - Manas can expect increased precipitation - Bagram will see increased frequency of low ceilings and low visibility as well as crosswinds that may hinder Predator ops - Visibility for helos out of Kandahar will potentially be adversely affected by low clouds enroute; result: potential mission cancellation AR ‘B’ Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Oct 05 No expected enroute weather impacts Expected enroute weather impacts to airframe may require mission rescheduling Enroute weather impacts exceed allowed criteria; reschedule mission c Ceiling Visibility Crosswinds c x v v x Diego Garcia

11. Climatology Thesis Topics • Methods • Analyze climatological data sets for atmosphere and ocean, including satellite data and model generated reanalysis fields from NOAA, NASA, AFCCC, and other sources. • Identify climate variation patterns and processes on scales of a week to several years. Analyze both atmospheric and oceanic variations. • Assess the impacts of these variations on regions of DoD interest. • Goals • Develop improved climatologies for these regions to account for climate variations. • Develop improved climate forecasting ability for DoD • Develop improved assessments and forecasts of climate impacts on military operations.

12. Climatology Thesis Topics • Recommended Courses • Modern Climatology, MR 3610 • next offering: summer 2006 • Advanced Climatology / Atmospheric General Circulation, MR 4250 • next offering: fall 2006 • Related Student Specialties and Interests • Climatology • Physical Oceanography • Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions • Tropical Meteorology • General Meteorology • Operational Applications of Climatology

13. Climatology Thesis Topics AF Thesis Topics Many topics on the FY05 and FY06 thesis topics list deal with climatology problems (e.g., Korea climo topic). Please see me if you are interested in pursuing any of these topics. Climatology topics that are not on the current AFIT thesis topics list may still be very attractive to AFW. See me or the faculty with whom I co-advise, Col David Smarsh and Lt Col Karl Pfeiffer, for more on this issue. “This is exactly the sort of research we need to be doing!” --- Col Berchoff, AFWA, after hearing brief on on-going SWA climate research by Capt Damon Vorhees, USAF (approximate quote)

14. Recent and On-Going Climatology Thesis Projects Feldmeier, J., 2005. Climatic Variations of the California Current System: Application of Smart Climatology to the Coastal Ocean. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, September 2005. Advisors: Profs. T. Murphree and R. Tokmakian. Ford, B., 2000. El Nino and La Nina Events, and Tropical Cyclones: Impacts and Mechanisms. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, June 2000. Advisor: Prof. Tom Murphree. Hildebrand, P., 2001. El Nino and La Nina Events and North Atlantic tropical Cyclones. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2001. Advisor: Prof. Tom Murphree. LaJoie, M., 2006. The Impact of Climate Variations on Military Operations in the Horn of Africa.Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006. Advisors: Prof. Tom Murphree, Lt Col Karl Pfeiffer. Stepanek, A., 2006. Improving Medium-Range Forecasts in North America Using Teleconnections Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation.Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006. Advisors: Prof. Tom Murphree, Prof. Chuck Wash. Vorhees, D., 2006. The Impacts of Global Scale Climate Variations on Southwest Asia.Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006. Advisors: Prof. Tom Murphree, Lt Col Karl Pfeiffer.

15. False Alarm Rate for No Go MEFs Issued by AMC CWTs in FY04 Heidke Skill Score for MEFs Issued by AMC CWTs in FY04 Meteorology and Oceanography Metrics Thesis Topics Prof. Tom Murphree Dept. of Meteorology, NPS Performance of Mission Execution Forecasts Issued by Air Mobility Command (AMC) Combat Weather Teams (CWTs) From NPS thesis research of Capt Jeff Jarry, USAF, 2005

16. Metrics Thesis Topics For official use only Operational Impacts of Forecasts Air Mobility Command WXM Unit, FY 2004 Number of Weather Mitigation Actions Taken by Operators Estimated Number of Missions Saved Estimated Number of Unnecessary Actions Taken 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Saved Mission a. No Go forecast for original plan is accurate b. Go forecast for accepted mitigation plan is accurate. c. Mission successful using mitigation plan, and would have failed using original plan. APR OCT NOV DEC JAN MAR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP FY04 AVG FEB For official use only From NPS thesis research of Capt Jeff Jarry, USAF, 2005

17. Metrics Thesis Topics For official use only Percent Forecast Accuracy for OIF CAOC Forecasts March–April 2003, Mission Type X, Location Y All Forecasts Red Forecasts Yellow Forecasts Green Forecasts For official use only From NPS thesis research of LCDR Jake Hinz, USN, 2004

18. Metrics Thesis Topics OIF Aviation Sorties: Plans and Outcomes Dust Storm March 2003 April 2003 For official use only From NPS thesis research of LCDR Jake Hinz, USN, 2004

19. Metrics Thesis Topics Results of metrics research are being transitioned into operational Navy and AF units From NPS thesis research of LCDR Mark Butler, USN, 2005

20. Metrics Thesis Topics Results of metrics research are being transitioned into operational Navy and AF units From NPS thesis research of Maj Karen Darnell, USAF, 2006

21. Metrics Thesis Topics Operational Impacts of Weather Forecasts Provided to Naval Strike and Air Warfare Center, NAS Fallon From NPS thesis research of LCDR Mark Butler, USN, 2005

22. Metrics Thesis Topics Integration of METOC Metrics and Operational Metrics Operational Outcomes Operational Plans METOC Forecasts * METOC Observations Operational Performance Metrics METOC Performance Metrics Metrics of METOC Impacts on Operational Performance ( Value Added) * or other products

23. Metrics Thesis Topics • Methods • 1. Develop metrics tools for quantitatively assessing: • performance of operational AF and Navy forecasts • (both atmospheric and oceanographic forecasts) • operational impacts of these forecasts • Apply these metrics tools to operational AF and Navy data sets. • Identify most useful metrics for operational use. • Implement these tools and the resulting analyses at AF and Navy units (e.g., hubs, CWTs, centers, ships). • Goals • Develop and apply tools for: • a. measuringthe performance of forecasts and other products • b. measuringthe impacts of those products on war fighting • operations • c. modeling and predicting the impacts of METOC support • 2. Identify methods for improving quality and efficiency of METOC support to war fighting operations.

24. Metrics Thesis Topics • Related Courses / Experience • Forecasting courses • Real world experience in AF and Navy METOC (meteorology and/or oceanography) and the operations of AFW’s and CNMOC’s customers. • The operational experience that students bring to this research project is essential to the project’s success. • Related Student Specialties and Interests • Forecasting / NWP • General Meteorology • Physical Oceanography • Operations Analysis • Organizational / Business Management • Database Development and Management (especially web-based) • Related Student Specialties and Interests • Metrics that quantify the performance and operational impacts of METOC products is a very important issue at leadership levels within CNMOC and AFW. This means research on this topic gets attention at relatively high levels. That has been the case for the metrics thesis research completed by past and present Navy and AF students. Examples: Invited thesis briefs to Oceanographer of the Navy, head of AFW, AFW Leadership Conference.

25. Metrics Thesis Topics AF Thesis Topics Several topics on the FY06 thesis topics list deal with forecast performance and operational impacts (e.g., forecaster versus model topic). Please see me if you are interested in pursuing any of these topics. Climatology topics that are not on the current AFIT thesis topics list may still be very acceptable to AFW. See me or the faculty with whom I co-advise, Col David Smarsh and Lt Col Karl Pfeiffer, for more on this issue. Metrics that quantify the performance and operational impacts of METOC products are very important at leadership levels within CNMOC and AFW. This means research on this topic gets attention at relatively high levels. That has been the case for the metrics thesis research completed by past and present Navy and AF students. Examples: Invited thesis briefs to Oceanographer of the Navy, head of AFW, AFW Leadership Conference, CNMOC staff.

26. Recent and On-Going Metrics Thesis Projects • LCDR A. Cantu, USN, 2001. The Role of Weather in Class A Naval Aviation Mishaps. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Co-Advisors: C. Wash and T. Murphree • LCDR B. Martin, USN, 2002. METOC and Naval Afloat Operations: Risk Management, Safety, and Readiness. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree, Co-Advisor: C. Wash. • LCDR J. Hinz, USN, 2004. Developing and Applying METOC Metrics to Sea Strike: A Case Study of Operation Iraqi Freedom. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree, Co-Advisor: C. Wash. • Capt. J. Anderson, USAF, 2004. An Analysis of a Dust Storm Impacting Operation Iraqi Freedom, 25-27 March 2003. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: C. Wash, Second Reader: T. Murphree. • Capt. J. Jarry, USAF, 2005. Analysis of Air Mobility Command Weather Mission Execution Forecasts: Metrics of Forecast Performance and Impacts on War Fighting Operations. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree, Co-Advisor: Col. D. Smarsh. • LCDR M. Butler, USN, 2005. Automated Metrics of METOC Forecast Performance and Operational Impacts. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree. In progress. • Maj K. Darnell, 2006. Analysis of Weather Forecast Impacts on Air Combat Command Operations. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree, Co-Advisor: Col. D. Smarsh. In progress. • LT J. Callahan, USN, 2006. Metrics of METOC Forecast Performance and Operational Impacts on Carrier Operations. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree. In progress.

27. Climatology and Metrics Thesis Topics Prof. Tom Murphree Dept. of Meteorology, NPS Contact Information Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Room 267, Root Hall Department of Meteorology Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5114 murphree@nps.edu 831-656-2723  voice 831-656-3061  fax Email is the best way to reach me. But feel free to call or drop by my office anytime.