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Uncertainty in Carbon Cycling Models for Forest Management and Climate Variability

Discusses impact of forest management and climate variability on carbon cycling in heterogeneous landscapes. Explores methods to improve prediction accuracy and quantify uncertainty. Focuses on network development and data assimilation for model enhancement.

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Uncertainty in Carbon Cycling Models for Forest Management and Climate Variability

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  1. Observing and simulating carbon cycle impacts of forest management and climate variability in heterogeneous landscapes June 26-30, 2012, Kemp Natural Resources Station, Woodruff, WI

  2. Goals • Constraining and improving predictions of carbon cycling in spatially heterogeneous, managed landscapes • Developing the network and database of past and ongoing observations for improved assimilation into models

  3. Uncertainty • What uncertainty do we want to express? • What are the desired standards for quantifying uncertainty? • What variables useful for science? For management? • Is there a level of uncertainty that is useful for management? • What spatial and temporal scales are most useful to science/management? • What uncertainty can/can’t we quantify? • How would this uncertainty be incorporated into map form? • For what purposes would maps be used (reference, wayfinding, data visualization, decision-making, etc.)? • What format is best (static vs. interactive)?

  4. Products: be thinking • Proposal? • Synthesis paper? • Policy-management paper? • Collaboration (management, multidisciplinary) • Sharing: what are you working on now?

  5. 5 minute talks • Who are you and what do you do? • What are you excited about? Key idea! • What do you need help with?

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