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New Markets in Offshore Industry- West Africa. OSVC 2013. The Leela , Mumbai May 22, 2013. Suchint Miglani Senior Analyst miglani@drewry.co.uk. Agenda. Key offshore Regions- West Africa. Source: Drewry Maritime Research. Oil Reserves - West Africa.

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new markets in offshore industry west africa

New Markets in Offshore Industry- West Africa

OSVC 2013

The Leela, Mumbai

May 22, 2013

SuchintMiglani

Senior Analyst

miglani@drewry.co.uk

slide4

Key offshore Regions- West Africa

Source: Drewry Maritime Research

slide5

Oil Reserves - West Africa

Source: Drewry Maritime Research /EIA

  • Africa has proven oil reserves of 127.5 billion barrels currently, accounting for 8% of the world’s oil reserves.
  • West Africa consists over 40% of the total oil reserves in Africa.
  • West Africa reserves growth by 5% CAGR for the past 20 years.
  • Key reserves located in countries including Angola, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon.
slide6

Oil production - West Africa

Source: Drewry Maritime Research /EIA

  • West Africa has a significant resource potential. Almost half of the total oil production in African continent comes from West Africa.
  • The total oil production in the region reached 4.9 MMbbl in 2012, almost double of that in 1992.
  • Angola and Nigeria have been the major oil producing regions with a collective share of 90%.
slide7

Rig Snapshot

Types of Rigs deployed

Rig utilization

Source: Drewry Maritime Research

  • West Africa E & P activities is a mix of shallow and deepwater drilling.
  • The utilization levels of semi-submersible and Drillships are high in comparison with Jackups
  • The future E&P activity is expected to venture into deeper waters therefore the share of deep-water drilling rigs is also expected to grow further.
demand drivers
Demand Drivers

Africa E& P Spend Vs. Oil prices

Source: Drewry Maritime Research /Barclays

  • Global E & P spending is expected to be $644 bn in 2013, up 6.6% from the previous year.(Barclays research)
  • Africa E & P around 4% of the World E & P spending. Forecasted to increase by 4-5% in 2013 reaching to $25 bn.
  • Oil prices provide a major boost to the spending capabilities.
slide10

Fleet Supply Pattern

AHTS deployment by Size

PSV deployment by Size

Source: Drewry Maritime Research

  • More than half of the AHTS deployed are between 5-10,000 bhp.
  • The market progressively inclined towards high power sophisticated vessels. Approximately 20% of AHTS are greater that 15,000 bhp at present. Most of these high capacity vessels are deployed in Angola owing to the deepwater activity in the region.
  • Around 53% of the current PSV fleet in West Africa is above 2,000 dwt. A majority of the PSVs in West Africa are owned by Tidewater and Edison Chouest with their deployment centered in Angola and Nigeria.
slide11

Demand-Supply progression

OSV supply pattern

OSV demand pattern

Source: Drewry Maritime Research

  • The demand for AHTS mainly comes from Angola and Nigeria, which together account for 33 % of the total AHTS market in Africa. These two countries also account for 37 % of total PSV demand in Africa.
  • A relative growth in the supply side shows an increase of AHTS by15% & PSV by 10% CAGR for the past five years. This indicates the increase in the level of E & P activity happening in the region.
slide12

Major Players & Age profile

Leading OSV players

Average vessel age

Source: Drewry Maritime Research

  • The accelerated growth in offshore exploration in West African region has attracted major international OSV companies to explore the potential in the region.
  • While Tidewater, Bourbon offshore and Swire Pacific enjoy a high market share being the first entrants, a gradual inflow of newer players such as Bumi Armada, Maersk and Topaz Marine has raised the total operater base and henceforth the competitive environment within the region.
  • The average age of OSV’s (13.5 years) in the region has surpassed the global average of 17 years. This indicates that the older tonnage is being replaced by fresh vessels with advanced technology (DP1, DP2).
slide14

Charter Market- declining yet hopeful…!!

Historical OSV day rates in West Africa and indicative projections

Indicative projections

Source: Drewry Maritime Research

  • Drewry is of the opinion that day rates for OSVs in the West Africa could hover around the five year average in 2013, or could stay marginally under it.
  • The year 2014 could see day-rates heading downwards as 80% of the current orderbook is scheduled for delivery in 2013 which might cause oversupply in the target markets.
  • In 2015 and 2016, we may see dayrates regain momentum as there are not enough AHTS vessels on the orderbook for 2014 and 2015 delivery.
slide16

OSV Fleet Ordering Pattern- Global

Current Orderbook- PSV

Current Orderbook- AHTS

Source: Drewry Maritime Research

slide17

Old is gold…doesn’t hold true here!!

Around 30% of vessels are aged and will be phased out soon.

Source: Drewry Maritime Research

  • OSV market is very competitive in the West African region due to the presence of major players.
  • The age of the vessels remains a concern, since 30% of the OSV’s are likely to phased out in the next 5 years.
  • An equivalent replacement tonnage will be necessary to maintain the demand-supply balance.
  • Additional demand will be required to fill the gap and hence the opportunity for the vessel owners, investors lies in this region.
slide18

Younger fleet….better utilized!!

Although average utilization is less, the younger vessels have high share than the olderones.

Source: Drewry Maritime Research

  • Overall utilization levels in the past show a decline, but further bifurcation reveals that the younger vessels are better utilized than the older ones.
  • Younger and sophisticated vessels needed in the future, as the world moves towards ultra deepwater exploration.
  • An opportunity for the vessel owners to deploy their vessels in this region.
slide21

Conclusion

  • West Africa has emerged as the most favourable arena for offshore drilling in the recent times.
  • Increasing oil and gas prospects have led to huge capital investment from leading international oil companies. 
  • The charter market in the West Africa has been very competitive due to presence of abundant number of vessels.
  • Stringent regulatory norms by West African nations make the entry into African market difficult when compared with Asian and the Middle East markets.
  • The market is primarily dominated by players of international repute like BP, Shell, Total among others. These operations prefer OSV operators with quality tonnage and excellent operating history.
slide22

About Drewry

Since its founding in 1970, Drewry has grown into one of the world's most respected international maritime research & advisory providers.

Reflecting the global nature of 21st century maritime business, we have management centres in London, Gurgaon in India and Singapore. Each base has permanent and associate teams drawn from the broad sweep of shipping, ports and supply chain management including people experienced in working with different nationalities and cultures.

Whatever the issue, wherever the problem, we can be on the spot or operating remotely, whenever the client need arises. That is why the leading shipping companies, port authorities, government departments and financial institutions choose Drewry.

Across four decades, our advisors have worked at the heart of international shipping and supply chains so we can apply our know-how to support client ambitions… creating a virtuous circle of knowledge and expertise.

Our staff includes experienced market analysts, economists and financial planners who have had top-level exposure to wide aspects of the maritime industry.

Drewry is also able to call on the services and expertise of a number of freelance consultants for projects requiring specialist knowledge.

The Drewry imprint on any report or consultancy work is accepted throughout the global shipping industry as a sign of quality and authoritative research and analysis.

slide23

Sector based expertise

At Drewry, we can advise on all major sectors of shipping with research analysts and business consultants in every field.

Integrated advice: A client might approach Drewry needing advice on vessel acquisition vs chartering. We can analyse the market sector in which the client operates; make recommendations on the most suitable vessel type; access information on vessels for sale; identify a range of finance options; advise on pricing structures; help input effective management systems, structure attractive remuneration packages.

And after a certain length of time in operation, we can benchmark commercial and operational performance.

slide24

Research

Through Drewry, clients have unparalleled access to shipping intelligence and the reassurance that our people are the best informed in the business.

Research and analysis lie at the heart of everything we do.

The result is that our advice is never speculative but evidence-based and our analyses are data driven. That is why, at Drewry, we place such importance on research.

To support the research, we have the most comprehensive and up-to-date maritime databases available anywhere. And we have a global network of contacts that reaches across all major shipping sectors, organisational structures and management functions.

Drewry can apply know-how to support client ambitions… creating a virtuous circle of knowledge, expertise, problem solving, implementation and results