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Connecticut Industrial Real Estate Market (2007). “A View From the Street”. We are a spoiled bunch!. Would we have even thought of numerous 100,000-200,000 sf deals 3-4 years ago??!!??

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we are a spoiled bunch
We are a spoiled bunch!
  • Would we have even thought of numerous 100,000-200,000 sf deals 3-4 years ago??!!??
  • Would we have even thought of $100 million industrial deals 3-4 years ago??..How about 2 years ago???…How about REITS in our market???
things are good

Things are good!!!!

So then why is everyone so worried?!?

where are we today

Where are we today?

Activity Continues!!!

big user deals continue
Big “USER” Deals Continue.
  • New Breed – North Haven – 520,000 sf
  • RBC Bearings – Torrington – 130,000 sf
  • C&S Wholesalers - E. Windsor – 277,000 sf
  • Travelers Insurance – Windsor - 137,000 sf
big user deals con
Big “USER” Deals (con)….
  • Federated Department Stores – Cheshire – 258,000 sf.
  • Indeco – Milford – 88,000 sf.
  • Visual Controls – Milford – 146,000 sf.
cash flow
Cash Flow…
  • HRPT purchases the “Winstanley Portfolio”…
  • Hampshire Group purchases US Steel package in Meriden – 560,000 sf.
  • Block & Kahn purchases 141 South Street, West Hartford – 113,000 sf.
  • Preferred purchases (and is ready to sell) Cheshire & North Haven facilities…
cash flow con
Cash Flow (con)…
  • Benerofe Properties - 25 Research Parkway, Wallingford – 242,000 sf.
  • Elm Street - 60 Dodge Avenue, North Haven – 114,000 sf.
  • JMG Milford Realty – 80 Wampus Lane, Milford – 168,000 sf.
  • First Highland’s Lamberton Road, Windsor reportedly under contract…
and vacant
…And Vacant.
  • Griffin Land – 61 Chapel Road, Manchester – 307,000 sf.
  • S&I Realty - 1690 New Britain Avenue, Farmington – 160,000 sf.
  • Blackhammer LLC - 283 Main Street, New Hartford – 220,000 sf.
  • New Boston – 777 Brook Street, Rocky Hill – 100,000 sf.
land sales continue
Land Sales Continue…
  • Walgreens purchases 130 acres at $100,000 per acre…
  • Out of state developer reported to be u/c in Rocky Hill…
  • Out of State company u/c in S Windsor on 105 acres…
speculative development continues
…Speculative Development Continues…
  • Griffin Land continues Rainbow Road development.
  • Out of state developer to develop Rocky Hill land.
  • DeMattia Companies developing 200,000 sf in Bloomfield
speculative development continues con
…Speculative Development Continues (con).
  • 1070 North Farms LLC breaking ground on 42,000 sf (Bldg II) in Wallingford.
  • Rumor of up to 500,000 sf of spec development considered in Suffield.
design build construction continues
…Design Build Construction Continues.
  • Walgreens breaks ground on 800,000 sf in Windsor.
  • DataMail completes 100,000 sf facility in Windsor.
  • IP/xpedx breaks ground on 85,000 sf on Middle Street, Middletown.
  • Siracusa Moving & Storage nearly completed on 50,000 sf in New Britain.
where are we going tomorrow

Where are we going tomorrow?

“The Great Crystal Ball”

corporate product continues to come to market
Corporate Product Continues to Come to Market…
  • Lego Systems - Over 1.0 mill sf available in Enfield.
  • Winchester Arms - 225,000 sf in New Haven.
  • Franklin Farms – 370,00 sf in Pomfret.
  • Hitchcock Chair – 110,000 sf in New Hartford.
however existing space to be absorbed
However, Existing Space to Be Absorbed…
  • 75 Aircraft Road, Southington…rumored to be pending lease.
  • 250,000 sf tenant nearing terms in Hartford market.
  • CERC courting 120,000-200,000 sf freezer/cooler prospect.
  • PA based distributor looking for 200,000 sf of warehouse space.
low bay space
Low Bay Space…
  • Continues to be “ugly step child” of high bay, BUT…
    • Depth of market…
    • Lack of Inventory…
    • Increase in manufacturing/assembly…

MAKES IT LEASABLE!!! At a Price!!

speculative construction continues to be absorbed
Speculative Construction Continues to be Absorbed…
  • Griffin Land…Fed Ex, AAR, AW Hastings etc. etc.
albeit possibly at less than pro forma
Albeit, Possibly at Less than “Pro Forma”…
  • Over 500,000 sf being built in northern market…Look out for “Price Wars”.
  • Cost of Construction for TI’s putting downward pressure on net lease rate.
albeit possibly at less than pro forma1
Albeit, Possibly at Less than “Pro Forma”…
  • Over 500,000 sf being built in northern market…Look out for “Price Wars”.
  • Cost of Construction for TI’s putting downward pressure on net lease rate.
sale prices may have peaked
Sale Prices May Have Peaked…
  • User Deals – Yes.
    • Cost of Construction, although high is somewhat stable.
    • Medium sized sales still challenged.
    • Small buildings still “slam dunks”!
  • Investment Deals
    • Probably still a little room left on the upside. Lots of investors chasing little product.
land prices continue to rise
Land Prices Continue to Rise…
  • Even (and maybe especially) large tracks.
  • Small parcel sales…Still attractive.
thank you

THANK YOU

Mark J. Duclos

Sentry Commercial

860 983 5630

it s in the numbers
It’s in the numbers!
  • 9.1% (State of CT unemployment).
  • 1.0 – 1.5 m national annual job growth (as predicted by NAR lead economist).
  • Corporate profits up…hiring “not-so-up” Unemployment of 8-9% through 2015. (normalized unemployment of 6%?).
  • 1.7% GDP, Q2 2010
it s in the numbers con
It’s in the numbers! (con)
  • Cost of labor…cost of utilities…cost of (place line item here).
  • Where else is it cheaper to do business than CT? ”Anywhere”.
so where are we today
So, where are we today?
  • 13-19% vacancy rates (depends where you are in the state).
  • Average lease rates down 15-30%.
  • Average sale prices down 15-20%.
  • Available: Over 300 spaces, 50,000 square feet or larger.
where are we today con
Where are we today (con)?
  • Negative absorption:
    • Renewals, but smaller space.
    • New deals, but less space.
  • Only 30 +/- transactions, 50,000 sf or larger completed in 2010 (over 50% lease renewals), 80 completed in 2007.
  • Fastenal – 175,000 sf in Wallingford
where are we today con1
Where are we today (con)?
  • Transaction timeline extended (extended decision making process).
investments
Investments
  • Near Non-Existent
  • Trophy properties selling at reduced cap rates (again).
  • Value added properties struggling to trade.
  • Lenders are lending…at least they say they are!
land sales
Land Sales
  • Practically non-existent
    • South Windsor studio deal.
    • Rumored SW Sullivan Avenue land deal.
  • Conn-Comp - Land sales over 10 acres:
    • 2007: 58
    • 2010: 12
speculative development
Speculative Development
  • Practically non-existent.
design build construction
Design Build Construction
  • Practically non-existent.
where are we going
Where are we going?
  • Hit bottom…Headed Up…But no one is dancing in the streets!
  • Long recovery (1-2 years to get back to ground zero?).
  • Less corporate plant closings.
  • Unemployment continues to be a drag.
where are we going con
Where are we going (con)?
  • Uncertainty in the economy continues to drag on corporate investment.
  • Positive absorption (barely).
challenges
Challenges?
  • Corporate spending (FASB, taxes, health care, federal regulation etc.).
  • Consumer spending & Housing sales (less consumer products, less need for warehouse).
  • Job creation vs. “Saving Jobs”
  • Attitude, Attitude, Attitude.
challenges1
Challenges?
  • Attitude, Attitude, Attitude.
thank you1
Thank You

Mark J. Duclos

Sentry Commercial

860 983 5630

duclos@sentrycommercial.com