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Climate change – reducing the risks to health Andy Haines. Carbon dioxide measurements since 1957. Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The rise in carbon dioxide is due to our emissions For every 100t of CO 2 emitted now, 15-40t will remain in the atmosphere in1000y

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Presentation Transcript
slide4

Carbon dioxide measurements since 1957

Mauna Loa, Hawaii

  • The rise in carbon dioxide is due to our emissions
  • For every 100t of CO2 emitted now, 15-40t will remain in the atmosphere in1000y
  • Other long-lived GHGs (methane, nitrous oxide, FCs..) give the equivalent of 20% more CO2
slide5

+5oC

+3oC

Earth’s Temperature Chart, since Dinosaur Extinction 65m yrs ago

Arctic ice sheets

East Antarctic ice sheet

West Antarctic ice sheet

Paleocene

12

8

4

0

?

+1.5oC

Temp oC(vs 1961-90 av temp)

last 2m yr = ice-age

60myr 50myr 40myr 30myr 20myr 10myr Now

Millions of Years Before Present

Sea level 25-40 metres higher than today

Tripati et al Science 2009

slide6

A warming climate

IPCC 2013

Surface temperature

change 1901-2012

September Arctic sea ice area

Global average sea level change

slide7

Projections of globally averaged surface temperature

change from 1986-2005

IPCC 2013

+0.6C for change from pre-industrial

slide8

Projections of regional surface temperature change

1986-2005 to 2081-2100 for high emission scenario (RCP8.5)

IPCC 2013

Temperature

Precipitation

slide9

Projections for other quantities

IPCC 2013

Global Ocean surface pH

+0.2m for change from 1900

slide10
An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress Steven C. Sherwood and Matthew Huber PNAS 2010

Exceeding peak heat stress for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans

‘....It would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about on 7 °C, calling the habitability of some regions into question’

D.S.Battisti and R.L. Naylor . Science 2009

france august 2003 15000 deaths 70 000 in europe robine et al 2007
France, August 2003~15000 deaths (~70,000 in Europe) Robine et al 2007

Temperature distribution across Europe on 10 August 2003 at 1500hrs

baseline 2000

Climate Change and Malaria

Potential transmission in Zimbabwe

Baseline 2000

Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low

Highlands

Source: Ebi et al., 2005

slide14

Climate Change and Malaria - Potential transmission in Zimbabwe

2025

Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low

Source: Ebi et al., 2005

diarrheal disease and rainfall
Diarrheal disease and rainfall
  • Global overview of 36 published reports from LMICs from 1954-2000 (Lloyd, Kovats, Armstrong. Climate Res 2007)
  • 4% (1-7%) increase in diarrhoea incidence in children aged <5 per 10 mm /month decrease in rainfall
  • Reduced effect of hand washing where rainfall is low?
slide16

CLIMATE CHANGE: Poor Countries Projected to Fare Worst MODELLED CHANGES IN CEREAL GRAIN YIELDS, TO 2050

20

36

  • Plus climate-related:
  • Flood/storm/fire damage
  • Droughts – range, severity
  • Pests (climate-sensitive)
  • Infectious diseases (ditto)

80

64

Percentage change in yields to 2050

-50 -20 0 +20 +50 +100

UN Devt Prog, 2009

slide17

Impacts on malnutrition

Increased numbers of stunted children

Lloyd S, Kovats RS, Chalabi Z (2011)

many millions more people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea level rise by the 2080s
Many millions more people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s

Source: IPCC Wg II, TSI 2007.

slide19

2010 – a harbinger of things to come? Pakistan floods ~ 20 m affected Chinese floods ~ 12m displaced Russian drought and fires –wheat harvest down ~ 30% 56,000 extra deaths in Moscow and Western Russia(Munich Re estimate)

Record temperatures in 17 countries.

slide20

Deaths Attributable to Climate Change in Year 2000

Estimated annual deaths due to climate change from: malnutrition (~80K), diarrhoea (~50K), malaria (~20K), flooding (~3K)

14 WHO statistical regions are, here, scaled by estimated annual mortality (in 2000) due to change in climate since ~1970. Selected causes of death.

(Patz, Gibbs et al, 2007: based on McMichael, Campbell-Lendrum, et al, 2004)

there are physical behavioural and technological limits to how much we can adapt
There are physical, behavioural and technological limits to how much we can adapt
  • Physical limits: small low lying islands e.g. Cayman Islands
  • Behavioural limits: influence where we live and why, e.g. New Orleans
  • Technological limits: e.g. to the flood defences such as Thames Barrier, London
health co benefits from the low carbon economy
Health co-benefits from the ‘low-carbon’ economy

Through policies in several sectors e.g.

  • Housing
  • Transport
  • Food and agriculture
  • Electricity generation
slide26

A

B

300

40

lignite

lignite

30

coal

200

Cases of serious illness from air pollution /TWh

coal

Deaths from air pollution and accidents/TWh

oil

20

oil

100

10

biomass

biomass

gas

gas

0

0

nuclear

nuclear

0

500

1000

1500

0

500

1000

1500

Equivalent CO2 emissions g/kW.hr-1

Air pollution impacts vs CO2 emissions

Source: Markandya A, Wilkinson P. Lancet 2007

gbd estimates for air pollution deaths lim et al lancet 2012 380
GBD estimates for air pollution deaths ( Lim et al LANCET 2012 ;380;)
  • Ambient particulates ~3.2m deaths p.a.
  • Household from solid fuels
  • ~3.5 m p.a.
  • Tropospheric Ozone

~ 150 k deaths p.a.

slide28
Benefits of household energy efficiency in the UK(combined insulation and ventilation control improvements) ( Wilkinson et al 2009
slide29

Modelled health benefits of active travel and low emission vehicles: London and Delhi ( Woodcock et al 2009)

slide30

Increased active travel in London--- Health effects ( also diabetes, depression , cancer of the breast and bowel)

food and agriculture sector
Food and Agriculture Sector

80% of total emissions in sector from livestock production

Reducing animal source saturated fat by 30 % and replacing it with polyunsaturates could reduce heart disease deaths by ~ 15% (~ 18,000 premature deaths) in the UK

building a low carbon accessible and resilient health system
Building a low carbon,accessible and resilient health system
  • Design to reduce energy use and GHG emissions.
  • Increase resilience to floods and heatwaves
  • Provide care closer to home
  • Reduce hospital vehicle emissions
  • Encourage use of public transportation and bicycles
  • Use locally sourced food and reduce animal product consumption

Photos: HCWH, Practice Greenhealth

slide34
Climate change has far reaching and potentially catastrophic impacts but many low carbon policies can improve health and the economy.