IFPRI Water Policy Research

1. IFPRI Water Policy Research Irrigation Component Claudia Ringler, Ruth Meinzen-Dick, Andrew Bell, Tingju Zhu, Hua Xie, and Ephraim Nkonya

2. IFPRI irrigation work program

3. Completed Projects Large- vs. small-scale irrigation, Africa Combined biophysical and socioeconomic assessment of • dam-based irrigation potential, and • (residual) small-scale irrigation potential Input from hydrologic model, but no hydrologic modeling Potential additional work: Large- vs. small-scale irrigation under climate change You, L, C. Ringler, U. Wood-Sichra, R. Robertson, S. Wood, T. Zhu, G. Nelson, Z. Guo, and Y. Sun. 2011. What is the Irrigation Potential for Africa? A combined biophysical and socioeconomic approach. Food Policy 36(6): 770-782

4. Completed Projects Adaptations for Water Mgmt. in SSEA Assessment of climate change impacts on irrigation water supply Changes in irrigation supply reliability in 2050 for India, South Asia (excluding India), and Southeast Asia Ringler, C., N. Cenacchi, A. Cavalieri, W. Salas, D. Spielman, T. Zhu, H. Xie, Y. Sun. 2011. Analysis of Climate Change and Technology Policies in South and Southeast Asia. Submitted to USAID

5. Ongoing Projects Smallholder irrigation potential in SSA & SA Investigating 8 technologies for smallholder irrigation: Diesel pumps Treadle pumps Communal river diversions Small reservoirs Inland valley rice In-situ water harvesting Ex-situ water harvesting Rural electrification Methods: i) Ex-ante spatial analysis to filter for areas above ‘threshold’ potential: Soils Topography Runoff Market access Surface water access Population density ii) Biophysical modeling using SWAT to estimate water availability, consumption, and crop yield under different scenarios of smallholder irrigation development iii) Economic modeling using DREAM to estimate development impacts on crop prices iv) Integration of i, ii, and iii results to determine optimal profitable irrigated crop mix, and the potential application areas of the various irrigation technologies

6. Ongoing Projects Smallholder irrigation potential in SSA Potential application areas of: 20.5M ha (Diesel pumps) 17.3M ha (Treadle pumps) 1.2M ha (Communal river diversion) 0.3M* ha (Small reservoirs) *3.2M ha if no capital costs Xie, H., L. You, B. Wielgosz and C. Ringler. What is the potential for smallholder agricultural water management in Sub-Saharan Africa? An integrated hydrologic-economic assessment. Agricultural Water Management (under review) Xie, H., L. Longuevergne, C. Ringler, and B. Scanlon. Calibration and evaluation of the SWAT model using GRACE data in modeling continental hydrology of Sub-Saharan Africa. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (under review).

7. Ongoing Projects Smallholder irrigation potential in SSA Potential application area (in 1000 ha) for motor pumps: Potential additional work: In-country validation of modeling tool M&E of agricultural productivity improvements Impacts of climate variability on irrigation potential … and many other options

8. Ongoing Projects Treadle pump pilots in Kenya, Tanzania Kickstart is one of several firms marketing small-scale, low-cost irrigation technologies across SSA. This project evaluates Kickstart programs in Kenya and Tanzania. Kickstart’s main products are human-powered treadle pumps irrigating areas of up to 2 acres. Mainly targeting poor areas with limited access to diesel or technical support. Nkonya, E., L. Iannotti, B. Sakwa, B. Wielgosz, V. Gandhi, E. Kato, A. Peterman, and M. Jin. Baseline study of Kickstart treadle pumps in East Africa (2011)

9. Ongoing Projects Treadle pump pilots in Kenya, Tanzania Key preliminary findings: Very low ownership by women Main market for irrigated product in local villages All irrigation was for high-value (e.g., vegetable) crops Pump owners are not the poorest – were also more educated and more likely to have phones

10. Ongoing Projects Water-Saving Irrigation in China/India & Vietnam • Innovative Water-Saving Irrigation and Investment Priorities for Food Security and Water Sustainability in China, India and Vietnam • Local Focus Group Discussions involving farmers and water managers • Policy dialogues with national experts and policy makers • Scenario design – irrigation investment and technology adoption • Simulation modeling of water balance and irrigation water use under alternative investment and efficiency scenarios

11. Ongoing Projects Global irrigation modeling in IMPACT Irrigation Supply Reliability in the Limpopo River Basin • Sample topics: • Role of water in the global bio-economy • Irrigation and food security, alternative scenarios (mostly presentations) Zhu, T. and C. Ringler. 2012. Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability and Use in the Limpopo River Basin. Water 4(1): 63-84. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w4010063

12. Ongoing Projects Env’tal Mgmt. Options to Reduce Malaria Transmission in Uganda • Literature review of agriculture-environment-health linkages • Geographically weighted regression analysis of Uganda National Household Survey for 2006 to determine localized agriculture-environment-health linkages • Statistical analysis of longitudinal data for Uganda to establish intervention potential for extension, for example, through FFS for agriculture-health linkages

13. Projects starting up Assessing returns to irrigation, Tanzania • Assessment of Tanzania’s Agricultural Sector Development Program (ASDP), with attention to: • Quantifying investment returns to a cross-section of irrigation investments in the ASDP, • Assessing sustainability of these returns and arrangements for cost recovery (via water user associations and fee collection, etc.), • Identifying the key technical, financial, and institutional determinants of schemes with higher vs. lower investment returns, and • Evaluating trade-offs of investing in i) strengthening existing schemes, ii) rehabilitating older schemes, and iii) developing new schemes

14. Projects starting up Irrigation and increased ag. productivity • Agricultural household surveys (Bangladesh and Pakistan) for econometric assessment of: • i) Contribution of irrigation to crop yields/income/ nutrition • ii) Biophysical and socioeconomic determinants of participation in irrigation • SWAT hydrological model to extrapolate survey results to the entire country (Bangladesh and Pakistan)

15. Projects starting up Experimental Games for Strengthening Collective Action? Recent research has suggested that participation in experimental games has impact on behavior following the game This project aims to evaluate impact of experimental games on collective action in an irrigation context, in India and Colombia Partnership with Foundation for Ecological Security (India), Universidad de Los Andes (Colombia), and Arizona State University (USA) Pending evidence of positive impact on collective action from games, this project will apply for funds to scale-up activities

16. Projects under planning Additional topics of interest • Assessment of smallholder irrigation on community nutrition and health • Energy use in irrigation versus mechanization and fertilizer—impacts on productivity and food security • Institutions and policies for enhanced rural water quality management • Determinants of adoption of advanced irrigation technologies

17. Summary and key IFPRI research goals • Current IFPRI work on irrigation is focused on social data collection (focus groups, surveys, experimental games) coupled to mathematical modeling, to address (broadly speaking): • What are the benefits to particular irrigation schemes (such as smallholder irrigation) • Who adopts irrigation programs and why (such as advanced irrigation technologies) • What are the returns to particular investments in irrigation schemes (such as canal lining in Pakistan)