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The Sun Corridor Seminar: PAF 591, Spring 2006. Final Class Presentation Instructors: Robert Lang, Virginia Tech John Hall, ASU. What’s in This Talk?. Review of Megapolitan Area Geography Arizona Sun Corridor Geography The Sun Corridor’s Ten Urban Realms Central Class Findings

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the sun corridor seminar paf 591 spring 2006

The Sun Corridor Seminar:PAF 591, Spring 2006

Final Class Presentation

Instructors:

Robert Lang, Virginia Tech

John Hall, ASU

what s in this talk
What’s in This Talk?
  • Review of Megapolitan Area Geography
  • Arizona Sun Corridor Geography
  • The Sun Corridor’s Ten Urban Realms
  • Central Class Findings
  • What’s in This Talk? Next Steps in the Sun Corridor Project
slide3

Arizona Republic

March 2006

Megas In the News

housing equity issues in the sun corridor realms
Housing/Equity Issues in the Sun Corridor Realms
  • Housing Market Values by Realm
  • Housing Appreciation Rates by Realm
  • Housing Burden and Overcrowding by Realm
  • Comparisons between Phoenix and Tucson Housing Markets – Simultaneity?
  • Comparison between Phoenix & Tucson Housing Markets
  • Changing demographics will change the form of housing.
slide17

The Sun Corridor: 10-20 % Average Annualized Rate of Domestic Net Migration – Where Will These People Live?

Source: “Domestic Net Migration in the United States: 2000-2004”, U.S. Census Bureau, 4/20/06

(www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p25-1135.pdf)

the sun corridor is a destination for people who are relocating
The Sun Corridor is a Destination for People who are Relocating

Source: “Domestic Net Migration in the United States: 2000-2004”, U.S. Census Bureau, 4/20/06

(www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p25-1135.pdf)

the west is the best jim morrison the end 1967
“The West is The Best” - Jim Morrison, The End, 1967

Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

estimated median market value
Estimated Median Market Value

Source: www.zillow.com

housing appreciation
Housing Appreciation

Source: www.zillow.com

slide22
The Sun Corridor had 3 out of the Top 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas and Divisions with Highest Rates of House Price Appreciation

Source: “Housing Price Appreciation Continues At Robust Pace”, Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), 3/1/06

housing burden
Housing Burden

Source: www.dataplace.org

overcrowded housing
Overcrowded Housing

Source: www.dataplace.org

phoenix and tucson both outpace comparison cities
Phoenix and Tucson both outpace comparison cities

Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

phoenix and tucson both outpace comparison cities1
Phoenix and Tucson both outpace comparison cities

Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

phoenix and tucson comparison
Phoenix and Tucson Comparison

Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

the impact of the emerging latino demographic

Golf Links to Social Links:

The Impact of the Emerging Latino Demographic
  • Median age of White population in Arizona: 40
  • Median Latino population: 24 – These are the home buyers of the next 30 years.
  • Survey data indicates different housing preferences for this market.
    • Inclusion of elderly family members in household.
    • Access to public transportation and nearby shopping a priority
    • ‘Country-club lifestyle’ not as attractive
    • Less resistance to attached housing
  • The emergence of Latino home buyers will change the urban form of the Sun Corridor.
education in the sun corridor
Education in the Sun Corridor
  • How do the Sun Corridor’s K-12 and higher education systems prepare students for the higher level, often high-tech jobs of the future?
living on the kindness of strangers
“Living on the Kindness of Strangers”
  • Discrepancy between those who are transplants to the Sun Corridor and those who are educated in the Sun Corridor
  • The percentage of those over 25 with a bachelor’s degree is above the national average
  • The percentage of those over 25 with a high school diploma is at the national average
english language learners ell
English Language Learners (ELL)
  • Spanish is the primary home language of 20% of K-12 students in the Sun Corridor (Nat. Average 10%)
  • Proposition 203 ended most Bilingual Education programs and replaced them with Structured English Immersion (SEI) programs
higher education in the sun corridor
Higher Education in the Sun Corridor
  • In the 2006 U.S. News and World report College Rankings, the Sun Corridor had only one University in the top 100 (University of Arizona-tied for 97th)
  • Every other megapolitan region has at least one university ranked higher than the U of A
  • Peninsula megapolitan is the next lowest with the University of Miami, tied for 55th
community colleges
Community Colleges
  • Sun Corridor is a national leader
  • The Maricopa County Community System is the largest in the nation (over 250,000 students)
  • Community colleges serve a preparation function for four-year colleges and engage in job training
topics
Topics
  • Composition of the Economy
  • Realm Share of Development
  • Employment Centers
economic composition
Leading Industries

Construction/Real Estate

Consumer Services

Secondary Industries

Aerospace

Producer Services

F.I.RE

Law, Marketing

High-Tech/Bio

Military

Entrepreneurial

Opportunities

Baby Boomer Bio

Western Product Gateway

Next Generation Infrastructure

Economic Composition
inventory office development
Inventory – Office Development

Source: CB Richard Ellis, 2005

inventory industrial development
Inventory – Industrial Development

Source: CB Richard Ellis, 2005

inventory retail development
Inventory – Retail Development

Source: CB Richard Ellis, 2005

economic development in the realms
Northwest Valley: The Room Upstairs

Assets

Prescott Airport

Opportunities

Anthem

Lake Pleasant

Challenges

Connectivity to Phoenix

Transportation Corridors

West Valley: The Sleeping Giant

Assets

Available Land Mass

Airports

Opportunities

Future freeway corridors (303, 801)

Building [sub]urban core from scratch

Challenges

Getting someone to test the water

Economic Development in the Realms
economic development in the realms1
Central Valley: Employment Center

Assets

Downtown Phoenix

Sky Harbor

I-10 Distribution Corridor

Opportunities

Redevelopment

Stadium/Arena

Challenges

Aging Infrastructure

Suburban Flight

Residential Composition

Northeast Valley: The Crown Jewel

Assets

Camelback Corridor

Scottsdale Airpark

Deer Valley Airport

Opportunities

Old Towne Redevelopment

Palisene

Challenges

Affordability

Infill Opportunity

Economic Development in the Realms
economic development in the realms2
East Valley: Young & Emerging

Assets

ASU

Chandler/Price Corridor

Mesa Airports

Opportunities

SanTan Corridor

Original Core Redevelopment

Challenges

Available Land

Mid Corridor: In the Crosshairs

Assets

Phoenix Regional Airport

1-10 and I-8

Opportunities

Land, Land, Land

Intermodel Hub of Region

Challenges

Cohesive Land & Transportation Planning

Sense of place as connecting point between Phoenix and Tucson

Economic Development in the Realms
economic development in the realms3
Foothills: Uptown

Assets

Wealth

Resorts

Opportunities

Oro Valley corridor

Marana

Challenges

Connectivity to Tucson Metro and the Mid Corridor

Tucson Valley: Downtown

Assets

UofA

Downtown Tucson

Opportunities

Employment Center serving all 4 Tucson realms

Challenges

Transportation

Economic Development in the Realms
economic development in the realms4
Santa Cruz Valley: The Gateway

Assets

I-19

Opportunities

Transition center between Mexico/US

I-19 connection to/from Mexico

Challenges

Connectivity to other realms

San Pedro Valley: Still Camouflaged

Assets

Fort Huachuca

Opportunities

Transition center between Mexico/US

I-10 connection to El Paso

Challenges

Connectivity to other realms

Economic Development in the Realms
population growth more congestion
Population Growth=More Congestion

Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled, per region

(in millions of miles)

slide59

Northern tier’s realms dominateSun Corridor aviation

  • PHX: 20 million passengers 504,000 air carrier operations
  • TUC: 4 million passengers 43,000 air carrier operations
slide60

Housing Units

2050

Pop. balance shifts south

Housing Units

2010

slide61

?

Where will the next PHX be?

2050

slide62

Is the Sun Corridor DFW or LAX?

  • Dallas-Fort Worth = centralized model
    • Less complex, for passengers, industry
    • Better control of environmental issues
    • Requires authority
  • Los Angeles = reliever system
    • Redundancy
    • Complex airspace, connection, access
    • Shares economic burden, boom
  • Recent trends  PHX = LAX
slide63

And will rail be included?

  • MAG, ADOT and others pushing for it
  • Lack of connection between north, south, Mid
  • Increasing population pressure from Mid
  • Commuter rail vs. light rail: access from both north, south and Mid
slide64

In and Out of the Sun Corridor

  • Freeways/Highways:
    • Congestion—Central Corridor
    • Tucson must build highways
    • Need for increased planning between realms
    • Revenue challenge
  • Aviation
    • Current population imbalance drives reliever system, LAX style
    • Southward population shift may demand regional airport in Mid-Corridor
    • Regional airport, population pressure may push rail effort
sun corridor water infrastructure
Sun Corridor: Water Infrastructure

Salt River Project watershed

groundwater
Groundwater

*The Northwest, Central, Mid Corridor, and Foothills realms have no pumping stations

open space1
Open Space
  • Environmental Impact
  • Economic Impact
  • Preservation of significant areas
  • Quality of Life
effective open space conservation
Effective Open Space Conservation
  • Local political and constituent support
  • Strong state enabling legislation
  • Healthy local economy
  • Community’s public financing capacity
    • Borrowing history
    • Bonding capacity
    • Degree of fiscal power and authority
    • Tax base
general sun corridor key policy implications
General Sun Corridor Key Policy Implications
  • The Sun Corridor is the Fastest Growing Megapolitan—Especially The West Valley
  • The Sun Corridor’s Interstate Network is Designed for Inter not Intra-Metropolitan Trips
  • Megapolitan-Level Policies for Transportation, Environmental Pres. and Economic Development
  • Plan for Urban Realms—Each Realm Needs Some Measure of Autonomy
  • But Realms also Need More Effective Integration and Coordination
specific urban realm key policy implications
Specific Urban Realm Key Policy Implications
  • Core Realms
    • Infill and Redevelopment
  • Favored Quarter Realms
    • Job/Housing Balance and Affordable Housing
  • Maturing Suburbs Realms
    • Create Mixed Use Centers
  • Emerging Exurban Realms
    • Open Space Preservation
next steps
Next Steps
  • June 2006 – Rollout of Key Findings Including Projections for Population, Employment, Housing, and Commercial Construction in a Joint ASU-VT Press Conference
  • Fall 2006 – Morrison Institute Publishes Sun Corridor Final Report