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The Future of Washington Forests and Forest Industries

The Future of Washington Forests and Forest Industries. Stand Management Cooperative April 26, 2007. Larry Mason, Rural Technology Initiative. The Future of Washington’s Forests and Forest Industries Commissioned by the WA State Legislature 2005. Study Areas Include:

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The Future of Washington Forests and Forest Industries

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  1. The Future of Washington Forests and Forest Industries Stand Management Cooperative April 26, 2007 Larry Mason, Rural Technology Initiative

  2. The Future of Washington’s Forests and Forest Industries Commissioned by the WA State Legislature 2005 • Study Areas Include: • Timber Supply and Forest Structure Study 1 • Competitive Position Study 2 • Economic Contribution Study 3 • Land Conversion Study 4 • State Granted Return on Investment Study 5 PROGRESS REPORTS http://www.dnr.wa.gov/

  3. ? ? 4218 3,389 829 7029 3959 10988 Washington Unreserved Timberlands(thousands of acres) Less Roads, Buffers, Etc. 5800 3600 ~9400 Bolsinger, C. L., N. McKay, D. R. Gedney, and C. Alerich. 1997. Washington's Public and Private Forests. Resource Bulletin PNW-RB-218, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station.*USDI Bureau of Indian Affairs. 2004. 2004 Status of Forest Management Inventories and Planning. USDI, Bureau of Indian Affairs, Division of Forestry, Branch of Forest Resource Planning.

  4. North Puget Sound North Coast Central South Coast South Puget Sound Inland Empire South West Washington Timbersheds: Five Westside and Two Eastside

  5. Westside Forest Types • Management Intensities • Harvest Implications • Land Conversions

  6. Western Washington Harvest Volumes 1990 - 2002 Source: DNR Timber Harvest Report 2002

  7. Historic Projected Sources: DNR Timber Harvest Report 2002, FIA age-class data, UW/WFPA Management intensities Survey, Chambers 1980 DNR RPT 41.

  8. Historic Projected Source: Gray et al. 2005. PNW-RB-246

  9. West Side Question: This or This?

  10. Eastside Forest Types • Forest health & climate change • Fire/carbon/bioenergy • Mill Closures

  11. Eastern Washington Harvest Volumes 1990 - 2002 Source: DNR Timber Harvest Report 2002

  12. Historic Projected Sources: DNR Timber Harvest Reports 1965-2003, FIA & CVS Inventory Data; Tribal, Industry, Small Private Forestland Managers

  13. Source: DNR, Oneil

  14. Source: DNR, Oneil

  15. Without treatment, dry fuels, drought, and hot summers mean catastrophic wildfire in eastern Washington

  16. 2006 Forest Fires Total WA ~ 400,000 acres Total US > 9.8 millionacres Source: NOAA, EPA, US Census, NIFC, RTI

  17. East Side Question: This Or This

  18. Source: TSS Consultants, http://www.cc.state.az.us/utility/electric/EPS-TSSC.pdf

  19. WA Biomass and Bioenergy Potential by Feed Stock Type Source: WSU, WA DOE

  20. This? OR This?

  21. Harvest 6,000 Loggers in Washington Annual Payroll = $250 million Employment = 1.84 loggers/MMBF/Yr

  22. WCLA Survey Highlights – 98 Respondents ~ 900 MMBF/Yr • Average contract logger is over 50 years of age • 1995: 82% had health insurance but today: 53% • Skilled workers are much harder to find than 10 years ago • 13% make money; 48% break even; 40% lose money

  23. 48% are leaving logging!

  24. Haul More than 1 million loads/year 150 million miles 2400 Truck Drivers Annual payroll = $100 million Employment = 0.65 Drivers/MMBF/Yr

  25. 70% of Truckers are independents • Average trucker is over 50 years of age • Skilled workers are much harder to find than 10 years ago Source: WCLA Survey, Timber purchasers survey, NW Truckers Coop, Log Truckers Conference

  26. 2006 - OR Trucks = 1593, WA Trucks = 1325 No. of WA Trucks down 36% since 1998 WA DOT, WA DOL, and ODOT

  27. Sawn Wood Manufacture 12,000 mill workers in Washington Annual Payroll = $480 million Employment = 4.3 mill workers/MMBF/Yr

  28. Average years in business = 60 Average No. Employees = 192 Average Production = 200MMBF/Yr Sales are 98% domestic Average worker age = 43 Skilled workers hard to find WA is #2 Producer in US 40% plan to expand 0% will pay for certified logs Sawmill Survey: 34 Respondents, 4.2 Billion BF Production

  29. Reductions in log exports offset reductions in timber harvest for sawmills

  30. Spotted Owl Closure of inefficient mills, improvements in technology, and shift to second growth result in overrun gains (west but not east). Source: DNR Mill Survey, RTI 2006 Survey

  31. East Log Price $440 East Lumber Return Net Log (Not Good!) -$40 Eastside Over Run = 1.34 Coast Lumber Return Net Log (right side) Coast Log Price (left side) Year Lmbr Price Westside Over Run = 2.23 Source: Random Lengths, Log Lines, NW Management, Future of WA Forests

  32. Washington Forest Products Manufacturers - 2006

  33. Pulp and Paper 8,500 Pulp and paper workers in Washington Annual Payroll = $450 million Employment = 2.5 paper workers/MMBF/Yr

  34. Washington Forest Products Manufacturers - 2006

  35. No. of WA Pulp Mills & Pulp Export Facilities and Total Annual Production 1989 – 2002 45% Reduction in Domestic Production71% Reduction in Export Production

  36. Forest Industry Summary 40,000 direct jobs & $1.7 billion in payroll 100,000 indirect jobs Gross Business Income (2005) = $14.6 billion

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