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Education and the ‘Baby Boom’ in Northern Ireland. Patrick McGregor Patricia McKee. Attesting to the Potential of the NILS NILSRF 11 March 2011. NILS022: “Predicting Short Run Changes in Fertility in Northern Ireland”. a project funded by.

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Education and the ‘Baby Boom’ in Northern Ireland


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    1. Education and the ‘Baby Boom’ in Northern Ireland Patrick McGregor Patricia McKee Attesting to the Potential of the NILS NILSRF 11 March 2011 NILS022: “Predicting Short Run Changes in Fertility in Northern Ireland” a project funded by The authors are grateful to the NILS teams at NISRA for their assistance

    2. Education and the ‘baby boom’ in Northern Ireland • Overview • Education and fertility • The NILS • The data • The statistical model • Results • Conclusion

    3. Fertility in Northern Ireland Total Births Age Specific Fertility Rates

    4. Education and fertility Static economic analysis Children assumed to be normal ‘goods’ and the decline in fertility with income explained by child ‘quality’: the income elasticity of quality (+ve) being greater than the income elasticity of quantity (-ve). The home production framework allows the cost of children to be expressed as a function of the parents’ wages and their respective shares in the costs of producing child quality Education and fertility

    5. Dynamic economic analysis The ‘user cost’ of a child now is a function of a sequence of prices such as the female wage rate The optimal profile of a woman’s stock of human capital will be jointly determined with the timing of the births of her children. Any empirical analysis should permit the demographic profile to vary with educational attainment Education and fertility

    6. Level 0: No qualifications Level 1: GCSE grade D-G; 1-4 CSEs grade 1;1-4 ‘O’ level passes; NVQ level 1 Level 2: 5+ CSEs grade 1; 5+ GCSEs grade A-C;5+ ‘O’ level passes; NVQ level 2 Level 3: 2+ ‘A’ levels; 4+ AS levels; NVQ level 3 or GNVQ Advanced Level 4: First degree; NVQ level 4; HNC ; HND Level 5: Higher degree; NVQ level 5 Source: 2001 Census The data

    7. Women in the Labour Market Source: DETINI The data

    8. The NILS • The NILS potential mothers: those women with health card registrations, aged 16-44 years and whose DOB is one of the 104 in the systematic sample • Registrations downloaded biannually and constitute potential panel members • Details of any birth to a NILS mother are forwarded by the GRO to the NILS • 2001 Census: An attempt is made to link the Census details of all NILS mothers The NILS

    9. GRO 7,019 32,960 Census 01 101 4,653 61,263 26,710 530 Census 91 BSO 24,041 Sources of Information available for the NILS Fertility Panel The data

    10. Sources of Parity in the Fertility Panel Parity from Freq. Percent Census - offspring 116,327 74.0 GRO births 10,141 6.5 91 census 6,432 4.1 Count births 97-01 178 0.1 Census + n of births 158 0.1 Missing 24,041 15.3 Total Women157,277 100.0 The data

    11. Parity by Age and Education for the Fertility Panel L01 L23 L45 The data

    12. The Logit Model Variables AGE to COHORT are interacted with EDUCATION to allow demographic profile to vary with educational attainment PERIOD dummies take account of economic fluctuations COHORT dummies take account of tempo and quantum changes Modelestimated 2001 – 2007 for women aged 24 to 44 years old The Statistical Model

    13. RESULTS Results

    14. The Decomposition of the Change in Births 2001/2 to 2006/7 for the 1957-1977 Cohort Results